2023-2024 年 Polygon (POL) 價格預測：POL 會從看跌趨勢中恢復嗎？

Polygon (POL) 在 24 小時內下跌 12%，截至發稿時交易價格為 0.457 美元，目前正處於急劇下跌趨勢。在此期間，交易量猛增 33%，達到 2.48 億美元。

Polygon (POL) price continued its downtrend on Monday, dropping by 12% in 24 hours to trade at $0.457 at press time. This drop came amid a 33% spike in trading volumes, which reached $248 million, according to CoinMarketCap.

Polygon (POL) 價格週一繼續下跌趨勢，截至發稿時 24 小時內下跌 12%，交易價格為 0.457 美元。根據 CoinMarketCap 的數據，這一下降是在交易量激增 33% 的情況下發生的，交易量達到 2.48 億美元。

Polygon has been facing bearish pressure, with the price declining by about 33% in the last 30 days. This performance has had a negative impact on wallet profitability, with the percentage of wallets in losses surging to 91%.

Polygon 一直面臨看跌壓力，過去 30 天價格下跌約 33%。這種表現對錢包獲利能力產生了負面影響，錢包虧損比例飆升至 91%。

When many wallets are in losses, it causes negative market sentiment that results in further price declines. Furthermore, holders might choose to sell to minimize their losses, leading to additional sell-side pressure.

當許多錢包遭受損失時，就會導致負面的市場情緒，導致價格進一步下跌。此外，持有人可能會選擇出售以盡量減少損失，從而導致額外的賣方壓力。

As these bearish conditions persist, are there signs of a recovery, and could this trend reverse?

隨著這些看跌情況持續存在，是否有復甦的跡象，這種趨勢是否會逆轉？

RSI shows Polygon is oversold

RSI 顯示 Polygon 超賣

Polygon’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the altcoin’s four-hour chart showed that the token was oversold. This metric dropped to a value of 23, which was its lowest since mid-December.

Polygon 在山寨幣四小時圖表上的相對強度指數（RSI）顯示該代幣已超賣。該指標降至 23，為 12 月中旬以來的最低值。

An oversold RSI usually precedes a correction to the upside. Moreover, looking at past trends, POL tends to start a rally whenever the RSI reaches oversold levels. As such, the altcoin could be poised for a recovery.

超賣 RSI 通常先於向上修正。此外，從過去的趨勢來看，只要 RSI 達到超賣水平，POL 就會開始反彈。因此，山寨幣可能會復甦。

However, the Average Directional Index (ADX) is yet to confirm the end of the downtrend. In fact, the ADX line is rising, an indication that the ongoing bearish trend is growing strong and POL could drop to the 1.618 Fibonacci level ($0.416).

然而，平均方向指數（ADX）尚未確認下降趨勢的結束。事實上，ADX 線正在上升，表明持續的看跌趨勢正在增強，POL 可能會跌至 1.618 斐波那契水準（0.416 美元）。

RSI oversold, ADX rising on POL/USDT four-hour chart. Source: TradingView

RSI 超賣，ADX 在 POL/USDT 四小時圖上上漲。來源：TradingView

But, if the selling pressure eases as buyers consider the oversold RSI an ideal entry point, it could lead to a bullish reversal, pushing the price to $0.538.

但是，如果由於買家認為超賣的 RSI 是理想的切入點，拋售壓力有所緩解，則可能會導致看漲逆轉，將價格推至 0.538 美元。

dApp activity surges

dApp 活動激增

Data from DappRadar showed that dApp volumes on the Polygon network have increased substantially. In the last 24 hours, these volumes soared by 18% to $244 million and hit the highest level in six days.

DappRadar 的數據顯示，Polygon 網路上的 dApp 數量大幅增加。在過去 24 小時內，這些交易量飆升 18% 至 2.44 億美元，並達到六天內的最高水平。

dApp volumes on Polygon飆升至六日高点. Source: DappRadar

But, despite this increase, transactions had dropped to below $1 million while the number of Unique Active Wallets (UAWs) also declined.

但是，儘管有所增加，交易量仍降至 100 萬美元以下，同時獨特活躍錢包 (UAW) 的數量也有所下降。

Moreover, Polygon’s monthly dApp volumes are still down by 37%, suggesting that the long-term outlook remains bearish.

此外，Polygon 的月度 dApp 交易量仍下降 37%，顯示長期前景仍然悲觀。

Long/Short Ratio shows bearish momentum

多空比率顯示看跌勢頭

Polygon’s Long/Short Ratio showed that the momentum was bearish at press time after dropping to 0.885. This drop indicated that the number of short positions was slightly more than the number of long positions.

Polygon 的多空比率顯示，截至發稿時，勢頭在跌至 0.885 後呈現看跌趨勢。這一下降表明空頭部位數量略多於多頭部位數量。

Short traders tend to increase their bets when the momentum is bearish. However, an influx of short positions could increase the risk of a short squeeze that could result in forced buying activity.

當勢頭看跌時，空頭交易者往往會增加押注。然而，空頭部位的湧入可能會增加軋空風險，從而導致被迫買盤活動。