2023-2024 年 Polygon (POL) 价格预测：POL 会从看跌趋势中恢复吗？

Polygon (POL) 在 24 小时内下跌 12%，截至发稿时交易价格为 0.457 美元，目前正处于急剧下跌趋势。在此期间，交易量猛增 33%，达到 2.48 亿美元。

Polygon (POL) price continued its downtrend on Monday, dropping by 12% in 24 hours to trade at $0.457 at press time. This drop came amid a 33% spike in trading volumes, which reached $248 million, according to CoinMarketCap.

Polygon (POL) 价格周一继续下跌趋势，截至发稿时 24 小时内下跌 12%，交易价格为 0.457 美元。根据 CoinMarketCap 的数据，这一下降是在交易量激增 33% 的情况下发生的，交易量达到 2.48 亿美元。

Polygon has been facing bearish pressure, with the price declining by about 33% in the last 30 days. This performance has had a negative impact on wallet profitability, with the percentage of wallets in losses surging to 91%.

Polygon 一直面临看跌压力，过去 30 天价格下跌约 33%。这种表现对钱包盈利能力产生了负面影响，钱包亏损比例飙升至 91%。

When many wallets are in losses, it causes negative market sentiment that results in further price declines. Furthermore, holders might choose to sell to minimize their losses, leading to additional sell-side pressure.

当许多钱包遭受损失时，就会导致负面的市场情绪，导致价格进一步下跌。此外，持有人可能会选择出售以尽量减少损失，从而导致额外的卖方压力。

As these bearish conditions persist, are there signs of a recovery, and could this trend reverse?

随着这些看跌情况持续存在，是否有复苏的迹象，这种趋势是否会逆转？

RSI shows Polygon is oversold

RSI 显示 Polygon 超卖

Polygon’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the altcoin’s four-hour chart showed that the token was oversold. This metric dropped to a value of 23, which was its lowest since mid-December.

Polygon 在山寨币四小时图表上的相对强度指数（RSI）显示该代币已超卖。该指标降至 23，为 12 月中旬以来的最低值。

An oversold RSI usually precedes a correction to the upside. Moreover, looking at past trends, POL tends to start a rally whenever the RSI reaches oversold levels. As such, the altcoin could be poised for a recovery.

超卖 RSI 通常先于向上修正。此外，从过去的趋势来看，只要 RSI 达到超卖水平，POL 就会开始反弹。因此，山寨币可能会复苏。

However, the Average Directional Index (ADX) is yet to confirm the end of the downtrend. In fact, the ADX line is rising, an indication that the ongoing bearish trend is growing strong and POL could drop to the 1.618 Fibonacci level ($0.416).

然而，平均方向指数（ADX）尚未确认下降趋势的结束。事实上，ADX 线正在上升，表明持续的看跌趋势正在增强，POL 可能会跌至 1.618 斐波那契水平（0.416 美元）。

RSI oversold, ADX rising on POL/USDT four-hour chart. Source: TradingView

RSI 超卖，ADX 在 POL/USDT 四小时图上上涨。来源：TradingView

But, if the selling pressure eases as buyers consider the oversold RSI an ideal entry point, it could lead to a bullish reversal, pushing the price to $0.538.

但是，如果由于买家认为超卖的 RSI 是理想的切入点，抛售压力有所缓解，则可能会导致看涨逆转，将价格推至 0.538 美元。

dApp activity surges

dApp 活动激增

Data from DappRadar showed that dApp volumes on the Polygon network have increased substantially. In the last 24 hours, these volumes soared by 18% to $244 million and hit the highest level in six days.

DappRadar 的数据显示，Polygon 网络上的 dApp 数量大幅增加。在过去 24 小时内，这些交易量飙升 18% 至 2.44 亿美元，并达到六天内的最高水平。

dApp volumes on Polygon飆升至六日高点. Source: DappRadar

dApp volumes on Polygon飙升至六日高点. Source: DappRadar

But, despite this increase, transactions had dropped to below $1 million while the number of Unique Active Wallets (UAWs) also declined.

但是，尽管有所增加，交易量仍降至 100 万美元以下，同时独特活跃钱包 (UAW) 的数量也有所下降。

Moreover, Polygon’s monthly dApp volumes are still down by 37%, suggesting that the long-term outlook remains bearish.

此外，Polygon 的月度 dApp 交易量仍下降 37%，表明长期前景仍然悲观。

Long/Short Ratio shows bearish momentum

多空比率显示看跌势头

Polygon’s Long/Short Ratio showed that the momentum was bearish at press time after dropping to 0.885. This drop indicated that the number of short positions was slightly more than the number of long positions.

Polygon 的多空比率显示，截至发稿时，势头在跌至 0.885 后呈看跌趋势。这一下降表明空头头寸数量略多于多头头寸数量。

Short traders tend to increase their bets when the momentum is bearish. However, an influx of short positions could increase the risk of a short squeeze that could result in forced buying activity.

当势头看跌时，空头交易者往往会增加押注。然而，空头头寸的涌入可能会增加轧空风险，从而导致被迫买盘活动。