PCE指數連續第二個月上漲，1月維持利率的可能性增加

聯準會（Fed）認為決定利率水準最重要的指標－個人消費支出（PCE）物價指數連續第二個月上漲。這導致分析認為聯準會明年更有可能調整降息步伐。

The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose for the second consecutive month in November, increasing 2.4% year-on-year and 0.1% month-on-month, according to the U.S. Department of Commerce on the 20th. This increase was lower than the expert forecasts of a 2.5% rise in the PCE index and a 2.9% increase in the core PCE index.

美國商務部20日公佈的數據顯示，11月份個人消費支出（PCE）物價指數連續第二個月上漲，較去年同期上漲2.4%，較上季上漲0.1%。此增幅低於專家預測的PCE指數增幅2.5%及核心PCE指數增幅2.9%。

The PCE index, which fell for five consecutive months from April to September this year, rebounded in October and rose again in November. However, the increase was lower than expected, providing relief to the market. According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) FedWatch tool, there is an 89.3% chance that the Fed will hold rates steady in January next year. The probability of a 0.25 percentage point cut from the current benchmark rate (4.25~4.50% per annum) at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in March next year rose from 48.4% to 50% after the PCE index announcement.

今年4月至9月連續五個月下跌的PCE指數在10月出現反彈，11月再次上漲。不過，增幅低於預期，讓市場鬆了一口氣。根據芝加哥商品交易所（CME）的FedWatch工具，聯準會明年1月維持利率穩定的可能性為89.3%。 PCE指數公佈後，明年3月聯邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)從目前基準利率(每年4.25~4.50%)下調0.25個百分點的機率從48.4%上升至50%。

The PCE index is considered the most important indicator by the Federal Reserve (Fed) when deciding interest rate levels. A higher-than-expected increase in the PCE index could lead to analysis suggesting that the Fed is more likely to adjust the pace of rate cuts next year.

PCE指數被聯準會（Fed）視為決定利率水準時最重要的指標。 PCE指數升幅高於預期可能導致分析顯示聯準會更有可能調整明年的降息步伐。

The market is focusing on the impact of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's tariff hikes and deregulation policies on U.S. inflation.

市場關注美國當選總統川普的關稅上調和放鬆管制政策對美國通膨的影響。