PCE指数连续第二个月上涨，1月份维持利率的可能性增加

美联储（Fed）认为决定利率水平最重要的指标——个人消费支出（PCE）价格指数连续第二个月上涨。这导致分析认为美联储明年更有可能调整降息步伐。

The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose for the second consecutive month in November, increasing 2.4% year-on-year and 0.1% month-on-month, according to the U.S. Department of Commerce on the 20th. This increase was lower than the expert forecasts of a 2.5% rise in the PCE index and a 2.9% increase in the core PCE index.

美国商务部20日公布的数据显示，11月份个人消费支出（PCE）物价指数连续第二个月上涨，同比上涨2.4%，环比上涨0.1%。这一增幅低于专家预测的PCE指数增幅2.5%和核心PCE指数增幅2.9%。

The PCE index, which fell for five consecutive months from April to September this year, rebounded in October and rose again in November. However, the increase was lower than expected, providing relief to the market. According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) FedWatch tool, there is an 89.3% chance that the Fed will hold rates steady in January next year. The probability of a 0.25 percentage point cut from the current benchmark rate (4.25~4.50% per annum) at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in March next year rose from 48.4% to 50% after the PCE index announcement.

今年4月至9月连续五个月下跌的PCE指数在10月出现反弹，11月再次上涨。不过，增幅低于预期，令市场松了一口气。根据芝加哥商品交易所（CME）的FedWatch工具，美联储明年1月维持利率稳定的可能性为89.3%。 PCE指数公布后，明年3月联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)从当前基准利率(每年4.25~4.50%)下调0.25个百分点的概率从48.4%上升至50%。

The PCE index is considered the most important indicator by the Federal Reserve (Fed) when deciding interest rate levels. A higher-than-expected increase in the PCE index could lead to analysis suggesting that the Fed is more likely to adjust the pace of rate cuts next year.

PCE指数被美联储（Fed）视为决定利率水平时最重要的指标。 PCE指数升幅高于预期可能导致分析表明美联储更有可能调整明年的降息步伐。

The market is focusing on the impact of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's tariff hikes and deregulation policies on U.S. inflation.

市场关注美国当选总统特朗普的关税上调和放松管制政策对美国通胀的影响。