金融市場典範轉移：黃金和比特幣飆升至前所未有的高度

在信任侵蝕和經濟不確定性的推動下，黃金和比特幣價格將在 2024 年飆升。比特幣的上漲歸因於美國比特幣 ETF 的推出，吸引了機構投資者並擴大了加密貨幣的投資者基礎。

The Unprecedented Surge in Gold and Bitcoin: A Paradigm Shift in Financial Markets

黃金和比特幣史無前例的飆升：金融市場的典範轉移

The global financial landscape has been witnessing an extraordinary surge in the prices of gold and Bitcoin, particularly since the latter part of 2023. This trend has accelerated rapidly in the early months of 2024, captivating the attention of investors, analysts, and policymakers alike.

全球金融格局見證了黃金和比特幣價格的大幅上漲，特別是自 2023 年下半年以來。這一趨勢在 2024 年初幾個月迅速加速，吸引了投資者、分析師和政策制定者的注意。

Gold: The Traditional Haven in Times of Uncertainty

黃金：不確定時期的傳統避風港

Gold, renowned as a traditional hedge against inflation and a safe haven asset during crises, has reached unprecedented heights. In the United States, the price of gold soared to a record high of $2,265 per ounce, while in India, it surpassed Rs 6,896 per gram. This surge underscores the growing apprehension among investors regarding the stability of the global financial system and the purchasing power of fiat currencies.

黃金被譽為傳統的通膨對沖工具和危機期間的避險資產，目前已達到前所未有的高度。在美國，金價飆升至每盎司2,265美元的歷史新高，而在印度，金價則超過每克6,896盧比。這一激增凸顯了投資者對全球金融體系穩定性和法定貨幣購買力日益增長的擔憂。

Bitcoin: The Digital Currency Ascendant

比特幣：數位貨幣方興未艾

Bitcoin, the groundbreaking digital currency, has also experienced an unprecedented upturn, momentarily crossing the $71,000 mark during trading on Monday. Bitcoin's rise is attributed to a convergence of factors, including the erosion of trust in traditional monetary systems, escalating economic uncertainty, and the influx of liquidity injected by central banks. However, Bitcoin's latest surge has been driven by an additional catalyst: the launch of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States.

比特幣這種開創性的數位貨幣也經歷了前所未有的上漲，在周一的交易中突破 71,000 美元大關。比特幣的崛起歸因於多種因素，包括對傳統貨幣體系信任的侵蝕、經濟不確定性不斷升級以及央行注入的流動性湧入。然而，比特幣最近的飆升是由另一個催化劑推動的：美國推出比特幣交易所交易基金（ETF）。

Bitcoin ETFs: A New Era for Institutional Investment

比特幣 ETF：機構投資的新時代

The introduction of Bitcoin ETFs has been a pivotal event in the cryptocurrency market, attracting a new class of institutional investors. These regulated derivatives provide a convenient and accessible avenue for institutions to gain exposure to Bitcoin without navigating the complexities of purchasing and storing the actual cryptocurrency.

比特幣 ETF 的推出一直是加密貨幣市場的關鍵事件，吸引了新一類機構投資者。這些受監管的衍生性商品為機構提供了一種便捷且可訪問的途徑來接觸比特幣，而無需處理購買和儲存實際加密貨幣的複雜性。

The impact of Bitcoin ETFs has been immediate and substantial. Since their inception in January, these ETFs have collectively garnered over $15 billion in inflows. This unprecedented buying pressure has played a major role in the near doubling of Bitcoin's price this year.

比特幣 ETF 的影響是立竿見影且龐大的。自 1 月推出以來，這些 ETF 總共吸引了超過 150 億美元的資金流入。這種前所未有的購買壓力在今年比特幣價格幾乎翻倍的過程中發揮了重要作用。

Beyond the influx of capital, Bitcoin ETFs have also attracted a different caliber of investor. By providing a familiar and regulated vehicle, they have drawn large, long-term focused institutional investors who were previously wary of Bitcoin's unregulated nature. Asset managers, pension funds, and endowments—the so-called "smart money"—are now actively investing in Bitcoin.

除了資本湧入之外，比特幣 ETF 還吸引了不同層次的投資者。透過提供熟悉且受監管的工具，他們吸引了大型、長期關注的機構投資者，這些投資者先前對比特幣不受監管的性質持謹慎態度。資產管理公司、退休基金和捐贈基金——所謂的「智慧資金」——現在正在積極投資比特幣。

This institutionalization of Bitcoin has profoundly altered its status. Some experts believe that these deep-pocketed investors are less susceptible to price fluctuations and volatility, providing a foundation for sustained growth. Additionally, the involvement of institutional investors has enhanced the credibility and respectability of cryptocurrencies.

比特幣的製度化深刻地改變了它的地位。一些專家認為，這些財力雄厚的投資者不易受到價格波動和波動的影響，為持續成長提供了基礎。此外，機構投資者的參與提高了加密貨幣的可信度和尊重度。

The symbolic turning point came when BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, unveiled its own Bitcoin ETF. This dramatic about-face from a firm that once dismissed Bitcoin as an "index of money laundering" further cemented the cryptocurrency's newfound legitimacy.

當全球最大的資產管理公司貝萊德推出自己的比特幣 ETF 時，象徵性的轉折點到來了。曾經將比特幣視為「洗錢指數」的公司的戲劇性轉變進一步鞏固了加密貨幣新發現的合法性。

The Broader Context: Eroding Trust in Monetary Systems

更廣泛的背景：貨幣體系信任的侵蝕

While the launch of Bitcoin ETFs has been a proximate driver of the current rally, a deeper, more long-term motivation underlies this surge in both gold and Bitcoin: the erosion of trust in traditional monetary systems. This erosion has been particularly pronounced in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, which has led to unprecedented levels of fiscal and monetary stimulus.

雖然比特幣 ETF 的推出是當前漲勢的直接驅動力，但黃金和比特幣價格飆升背後還有一個更深層、更長期的動機：對傳統貨幣體系信任的侵蝕。這種侵蝕在 COVID-19 大流行之後尤其明顯，導致了前所未有的財政和貨幣刺激水平。

The growing anxiety over the state of the global financial order and the role of the US dollar, in particular, has prompted risk-averse investors to hedge their bets with gold. However, the sharp rise in gold prices in recent months has also been driven by another significant factor: central bank buying.

人們對全球金融秩序狀況，尤其是美元的角色日益擔憂，促使規避風險的投資者用黃金對沖押注。不過，近幾個月金價的大幅上漲還受到另一個重要因素的推動：央行買盤。

In the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent sanctions imposed on Russia by the US government, many central banks have recognized the importance of diversifying their reserves away from the US dollar. As a result, central banks, notably those of Russia and China, have been aggressively selling their dollar assets and accumulating gold.

在俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭以及美國政府隨後對俄羅斯實施制裁之後，許多央行已經認識到將其儲備從美元轉向多元化的重要性。結果，各國央行，尤其是俄羅斯和中國的央行，一直在積極出售美元資產並累積黃金。

The profligate policies of the US government since 2020 have also raised concerns among more friendly regimes, including the Indian Reserve Bank. The dollar's status as the world's reserve currency has historically allowed the US to finance massive deficits by borrowing in its own currency. However, this practice has eroded trust and discipline, potentially sowing the seeds of the dollar's downfall. With the US debt exploding by $1 trillion every 100 days, the risk of a dollar crisis is constantly growing.

2020年以來美國政府的揮霍政策也引發了包括印度儲備銀行在內的更友善政權的擔憂。美元作為世界儲備貨幣的地位歷來使美國能夠透過以本國貨幣借款來彌補巨額赤字。然而，這種做法侵蝕了信任和紀律，並有可能播下美元貶值的種子。隨著美國債務每100天激增1兆美元，美元危機的風險不斷增加。

As a consequence of these concerns, global central banks are amassing gold at an unprecedented pace. In January 2024 alone, a staggering 39 tons were added to official gold holdings, marking the eighth consecutive month of increased buying. This reflects a loss of confidence in the very fiat currencies that central banks issue and manage.

由於這些擔憂，全球央行正以前所未有的速度累積黃金。光是 2024 年 1 月，官方黃金持有量就增加了驚人的 39 噸，標誌著購買量連續第八個月增加。這反映出人們對央行發行和管理的法定貨幣失去了信心。

Among the major gold buyers in January were the Central Bank of Turkey (12 tons), the People's Bank of China (10 tons), the Reserve Bank of India (9 tons), and the National Bank of Kazakhstan (6 tons).

1月的主要黃金買家包括土耳其中央銀行（12噸）、中國人民銀行（10噸）、印度儲備銀行（9噸）和哈薩克國家銀行（6噸）。

Economic Anxiety and the Quest for Safe Havens

經濟焦慮與尋求安全港

The troubled economic backdrop has further contributed to the surge in gold and Bitcoin prices. Despite unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus in recent years, growth remains sluggish in much of the developed world. Europe teeters on the brink of recession, Japan is stagnant, and even China, an economic powerhouse, is grappling with deflation.

陷入困境的經濟背景進一步推動了黃金和比特幣價格的飆升。儘管近年來採取了前所未有的財政和貨幣刺激措施，但許多已開發國家的成長仍然緩慢。歐洲在衰退的邊緣搖搖欲墜，日本停滯不前，就連經濟大國中國也陷入通貨緊縮的困境。

In this low-growth environment, investors are gravitating towards assets that can preserve purchasing power and provide diversification. Gold's time-honored role as a crisis hedge has made it highly sought after. While Bitcoin could also be considered a hedge, its heightened volatility continues to deter many smaller investors, particularly those who suffered losses during previous market downturns.

在這種低成長環境下，投資者傾向於選擇能夠保持購買力並提供多元化的資產。黃金長期以來作為危機對沖工具的作用使其備受追捧。雖然比特幣也可以被視為一種對沖工具，但其波動性加劇繼續令許多中小投資者望而卻步，尤其是那些在先前市場低迷期間遭受損失的投資者。

A Paradigm Shift in Attitudes Toward Money

對金錢態度的典範轉移

Ultimately, the synchronized surge in gold and Bitcoin prices reflects a profound shift in attitudes toward money itself. Bitcoin's extraordinary rise from cypherpunk obscurity to institutional darling is particularly noteworthy. Just a few years ago, the notion of regulated Bitcoin investment products would have been inconceivable.

最終，黃金和比特幣價格的同步上漲反映了人們對貨幣本身態度的深刻轉變。比特幣從密碼朋克的默默無聞到機構寵兒的非凡崛起尤其值得注意。就在幾年前，受監管的比特幣投資產品的概念還是不可想像的。

The launch of Bitcoin ETFs represents more than a fleeting investment fad. By embracing Bitcoin, even in a limited way, the financial establishment is acknowledging the need for alternative stores of value in an era of depreciating fiat currencies. Bitcoin ETFs have bestowed upon the cryptocurrency a newfound veneer of legitimacy and staying power.

比特幣 ETF 的推出不僅僅是一種短暫的投資熱潮。透過接受比特幣，即使是以有限的方式，金融機構也承認在法定貨幣貶值的時代需要替代性的價值儲存手段。比特幣 ETF 賦予了加密貨幣新的合法性和持久力。

Whether this institutionalization of Bitcoin will ultimately establish it as a mature asset class or ignite another speculative mania remains to be seen. However, one thing is clear: as faith in the US dollar wanes, investors in both gold and cryptocurrencies are reaping the rewards of their foresight.

比特幣的製度化最終是否會使其成為一種成熟的資產類別，還是引發另一場投機狂熱，還有待觀察。然而，有一點是明確的：隨著對美元信心的減弱，黃金和加密貨幣的投資者正在從他們的遠見中獲得回報。