金融市场范式转变：黄金和比特币飙升至前所未有的高度

在信任侵蚀和经济不确定性的推动下，黄金和比特币价格将在 2024 年飙升。比特币的上涨归因于美国比特币 ETF 的推出，吸引了机构投资者并扩大了加密货币的投资者基础。

The Unprecedented Surge in Gold and Bitcoin: A Paradigm Shift in Financial Markets

黄金和比特币史无前例的飙升：金融市场的范式转变

The global financial landscape has been witnessing an extraordinary surge in the prices of gold and Bitcoin, particularly since the latter part of 2023. This trend has accelerated rapidly in the early months of 2024, captivating the attention of investors, analysts, and policymakers alike.

全球金融格局见证了黄金和比特币价格的大幅上涨，特别是自 2023 年下半年以来。这一趋势在 2024 年初几个月迅速加速，吸引了投资者、分析师和政策制定者的关注。

Gold: The Traditional Haven in Times of Uncertainty

黄金：不确定时期的传统避风港

Gold, renowned as a traditional hedge against inflation and a safe haven asset during crises, has reached unprecedented heights. In the United States, the price of gold soared to a record high of $2,265 per ounce, while in India, it surpassed Rs 6,896 per gram. This surge underscores the growing apprehension among investors regarding the stability of the global financial system and the purchasing power of fiat currencies.

黄金被誉为传统的通胀对冲工具和危机期间的避险资产，目前已达到前所未有的高度。在美国，金价飙升至每盎司2,265美元的历史新高，而在印度，金价则超过每克6,896卢比。这一激增凸显了投资者对全球金融体系稳定性和法定货币购买力日益增长的担忧。

Bitcoin: The Digital Currency Ascendant

比特币：数字货币方兴未艾

Bitcoin, the groundbreaking digital currency, has also experienced an unprecedented upturn, momentarily crossing the $71,000 mark during trading on Monday. Bitcoin's rise is attributed to a convergence of factors, including the erosion of trust in traditional monetary systems, escalating economic uncertainty, and the influx of liquidity injected by central banks. However, Bitcoin's latest surge has been driven by an additional catalyst: the launch of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States.

比特币这种开创性的数字货币也经历了前所未有的上涨，在周一的交易中一度突破 71,000 美元大关。比特币的崛起归因于多种因素，包括对传统货币体系信任的侵蚀、经济不确定性不断升级以及央行注入的流动性涌入。然而，比特币最近的飙升是由另一个催化剂推动的：美国推出比特币交易所交易基金（ETF）。

Bitcoin ETFs: A New Era for Institutional Investment

比特币 ETF：机构投资的新时代

The introduction of Bitcoin ETFs has been a pivotal event in the cryptocurrency market, attracting a new class of institutional investors. These regulated derivatives provide a convenient and accessible avenue for institutions to gain exposure to Bitcoin without navigating the complexities of purchasing and storing the actual cryptocurrency.

比特币 ETF 的推出一直是加密货币市场的一个关键事件，吸引了新一类机构投资者。这些受监管的衍生品为机构提供了一种便捷且可访问的途径来接触比特币，而无需处理购买和存储实际加密货币的复杂性。

The impact of Bitcoin ETFs has been immediate and substantial. Since their inception in January, these ETFs have collectively garnered over $15 billion in inflows. This unprecedented buying pressure has played a major role in the near doubling of Bitcoin's price this year.

比特币 ETF 的影响是立竿见影且巨大的。自 1 月份推出以来，这些 ETF 总共吸引了超过 150 亿美元的资金流入。这种前所未有的购买压力在今年比特币价格几乎翻倍的过程中发挥了重要作用。

Beyond the influx of capital, Bitcoin ETFs have also attracted a different caliber of investor. By providing a familiar and regulated vehicle, they have drawn large, long-term focused institutional investors who were previously wary of Bitcoin's unregulated nature. Asset managers, pension funds, and endowments—the so-called "smart money"—are now actively investing in Bitcoin.

除了资本涌入之外，比特币 ETF 还吸引了不同层次的投资者。通过提供熟悉且受监管的工具，他们吸引了大型、长期关注的机构投资者，这些投资者此前对比特币不受监管的性质持谨慎态度。资产管理公司、养老基金和捐赠基金——所谓的“智能资金”——现在正在积极投资比特币。

This institutionalization of Bitcoin has profoundly altered its status. Some experts believe that these deep-pocketed investors are less susceptible to price fluctuations and volatility, providing a foundation for sustained growth. Additionally, the involvement of institutional investors has enhanced the credibility and respectability of cryptocurrencies.

比特币的制度化深刻地改变了它的地位。一些专家认为，这些财力雄厚的投资者不易受到价格波动和波动的影响，为持续增长提供了基础。此外，机构投资者的参与提高了加密货币的可信度和尊重度。

The symbolic turning point came when BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, unveiled its own Bitcoin ETF. This dramatic about-face from a firm that once dismissed Bitcoin as an "index of money laundering" further cemented the cryptocurrency's newfound legitimacy.

当全球最大的资产管理公司贝莱德推出自己的比特币 ETF 时，象征性的转折点到来了。一家曾经将比特币视为“洗钱指数”的公司的这一戏剧性转变进一步巩固了加密货币新发现的合法性。

The Broader Context: Eroding Trust in Monetary Systems

更广泛的背景：货币体系信任的侵蚀

While the launch of Bitcoin ETFs has been a proximate driver of the current rally, a deeper, more long-term motivation underlies this surge in both gold and Bitcoin: the erosion of trust in traditional monetary systems. This erosion has been particularly pronounced in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, which has led to unprecedented levels of fiscal and monetary stimulus.

虽然比特币 ETF 的推出是当前涨势的直接驱动力，但黄金和比特币价格飙升背后还有一个更深层次、更长期的动机：对传统货币体系信任的侵蚀。这种侵蚀在 COVID-19 大流行之后尤其明显，导致了前所未有的财政和货币刺激水平。

The growing anxiety over the state of the global financial order and the role of the US dollar, in particular, has prompted risk-averse investors to hedge their bets with gold. However, the sharp rise in gold prices in recent months has also been driven by another significant factor: central bank buying.

人们对全球金融秩序状况，尤其是美元的作用日益担忧，促使规避风险的投资者用黄金对冲押注。不过，近几个月金价的大幅上涨还受到另一个重要因素的推动：央行买盘。

In the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent sanctions imposed on Russia by the US government, many central banks have recognized the importance of diversifying their reserves away from the US dollar. As a result, central banks, notably those of Russia and China, have been aggressively selling their dollar assets and accumulating gold.

在俄罗斯入侵乌克兰以及美国政府随后对俄罗斯实施制裁之后，许多央行已经认识到将其储备从美元转向多元化的重要性。结果，各国央行，尤其是俄罗斯和中国的央行，一直在积极出售美元资产并积累黄金。

The profligate policies of the US government since 2020 have also raised concerns among more friendly regimes, including the Indian Reserve Bank. The dollar's status as the world's reserve currency has historically allowed the US to finance massive deficits by borrowing in its own currency. However, this practice has eroded trust and discipline, potentially sowing the seeds of the dollar's downfall. With the US debt exploding by $1 trillion every 100 days, the risk of a dollar crisis is constantly growing.

2020年以来美国政府的挥霍政策也引发了包括印度储备银行在内的更友好政权的担忧。美元作为世界储备货币的地位历来使美国能够通过以本国货币借款来弥补巨额赤字。然而，这种做法侵蚀了信任和纪律，有可能播下美元贬值的种子。随着美国债务每100天激增1万亿美元，美元危机的风险不断增大。

As a consequence of these concerns, global central banks are amassing gold at an unprecedented pace. In January 2024 alone, a staggering 39 tons were added to official gold holdings, marking the eighth consecutive month of increased buying. This reflects a loss of confidence in the very fiat currencies that central banks issue and manage.

由于这些担忧，全球央行正在以前所未有的速度积累黄金。仅 2024 年 1 月，官方黄金持有量就增加了惊人的 39 吨，标志着购买量连续第八个月增加。这反映出人们对央行发行和管理的法定货币失去了信心。

Among the major gold buyers in January were the Central Bank of Turkey (12 tons), the People's Bank of China (10 tons), the Reserve Bank of India (9 tons), and the National Bank of Kazakhstan (6 tons).

1月份的主要黄金买家包括土耳其中央银行（12吨）、中国人民银行（10吨）、印度储备银行（9吨）和哈萨克斯坦国家银行（6吨）。

Economic Anxiety and the Quest for Safe Havens

经济焦虑和寻求安全港

The troubled economic backdrop has further contributed to the surge in gold and Bitcoin prices. Despite unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus in recent years, growth remains sluggish in much of the developed world. Europe teeters on the brink of recession, Japan is stagnant, and even China, an economic powerhouse, is grappling with deflation.

陷入困境的经济背景进一步推动了黄金和比特币价格的飙升。尽管近年来采取了前所未有的财政和货币刺激措施，但许多发达国家的增长仍然缓慢。欧洲在衰退的边缘摇摇欲坠，日本停滞不前，就连经济大国中国也陷入通货紧缩的困境。

In this low-growth environment, investors are gravitating towards assets that can preserve purchasing power and provide diversification. Gold's time-honored role as a crisis hedge has made it highly sought after. While Bitcoin could also be considered a hedge, its heightened volatility continues to deter many smaller investors, particularly those who suffered losses during previous market downturns.

在这种低增长环境下，投资者倾向于选择能够保持购买力并提供多元化的资产。黄金长期以来作为危机对冲工具的作用使其备受追捧。虽然比特币也可以被视为一种对冲工具，但其波动性加剧继续令许多中小投资者望而却步，尤其是那些在之前市场低迷期间遭受损失的投资者。

A Paradigm Shift in Attitudes Toward Money

对金钱态度的范式转变

Ultimately, the synchronized surge in gold and Bitcoin prices reflects a profound shift in attitudes toward money itself. Bitcoin's extraordinary rise from cypherpunk obscurity to institutional darling is particularly noteworthy. Just a few years ago, the notion of regulated Bitcoin investment products would have been inconceivable.

最终，黄金和比特币价格的同步上涨反映了人们对货币本身态度的深刻转变。比特币从密码朋克的默默无闻到机构宠儿的非凡崛起尤其值得注意。就在几年前，受监管的比特币投资产品的概念还是不可想象的。

The launch of Bitcoin ETFs represents more than a fleeting investment fad. By embracing Bitcoin, even in a limited way, the financial establishment is acknowledging the need for alternative stores of value in an era of depreciating fiat currencies. Bitcoin ETFs have bestowed upon the cryptocurrency a newfound veneer of legitimacy and staying power.

比特币 ETF 的推出不仅仅是一种短暂的投资热潮。通过接受比特币，即使是以有限的方式，金融机构也承认在法定货币贬值的时代需要替代性的价值储存手段。比特币 ETF 赋予了加密货币新的合法性和持久力。

Whether this institutionalization of Bitcoin will ultimately establish it as a mature asset class or ignite another speculative mania remains to be seen. However, one thing is clear: as faith in the US dollar wanes, investors in both gold and cryptocurrencies are reaping the rewards of their foresight.

比特币的制度化最终是否会使其成为一种成熟的资产类别，还是引发另一场投机狂热，还有待观察。然而，有一点是明确的：随着对美元信心的减弱，黄金和加密货币的投资者正在从他们的远见中收获回报。