2025 年的序曲有一個熟悉的基調：摩根大通表示“貶值交易將持續下去”，比特幣上漲 8%

2025 年的序曲有著熟悉的基調。這不僅僅是數字：比特幣自 12 月底以來回升了 8%，而且新聞流也同樣引人注目。

Markets Update: Bitcoin Shows Signs of Life in 2025 Overture

市場動態：比特幣在 2025 年序曲中顯示出生命的跡象

The opening notes of 2025 in markets sound a familiar tune. It's not just the numbers, with Bitcoin up 8% since late December, but the news flow is equally recognizable.

2025 年市集的開場曲聽起來很熟悉。這不僅僅是數字，比特幣自 12 月底以來上漲了 8%，而且新聞流也同樣引人注目。

Perhaps the most important note comes from JPMorgan, which says the market forces that drove bitcoin and gold to records last year are still around.

也許最重要的說明來自摩根大通，該公司表示，去年推動比特幣和黃金創紀錄的市場力量仍然存在。

"The debasement trade is here to stay, with both gold and Bitcoin becoming increasingly important components of investors' portfolios," the investment bank wrote.

該投資銀行寫道：“隨著黃金和比特幣成為投資者投資組合中越來越重要的組成部分，貶值交易將持續下去。”

The debasement trade is a strategy where investors buy assets that protect against declines in fiat currencies and government bonds due to inflation and policy shifts.

貶值交易是一種策略，投資者購買資產以防止法定貨幣和政府債券因通貨膨脹和政策轉變而下跌。

Last year's debasement play drove bitcoin above $100,000 — a figure it's approaching again — and gold over $2,600. The rallies were fueled by increased geopolitical uncertainty, persistent inflation concerns, debt debasement in advanced economies, fears of fiat currency devaluation in emerging markets and a shift away from the U.S. dollar. Coupled with President-elect Donald Trump's pro-crypto stance, this led to a record $78 billion in net inflows into the digital assets market, according to JPMorgan.

去年的貶值行情推動比特幣突破 10 萬美元——這一數字再次逼近——黃金也突破了 2,600 美元。地緣政治不確定性增加、持續的通膨擔憂、已開發經濟體債務貶值、新興市場法定貨幣貶值的擔憂以及人們放棄美元等因素推動了股市上漲。摩根大通表示，加上當選總統川普的支持加密貨幣立場，這導致數位資產市場的淨流入達到創紀錄的 780 億美元。

Any discordant tone comes from elevated bond yields and a strong dollar driven by economic optimism and declining Fed rate-cut bets, which could limit upside potential in the short term. This Friday's nonfarm payrolls report will provide a critical test for the hawkish Fed narrative, with expectations for 154,000 job additions in December.

任何不和諧的基調都來自債券殖利率的上升以及經濟樂觀情緒和聯準會降息押注下降所推動的美元走強，這可能會限制短期內的上行潛力。本週五的非農就業報告將為聯準會的強硬言論提供關鍵考驗，預計 12 月將新增 154,000 個就業機會。

The shenanigans surrounding BTC-holder MicroStrategy (MSTR) deserve attention, particularly the social-media buzz about brokers reducing their exposure to the company. This reduction comes alongside significant increases in margin requirements, raising concerns about potential volatility.

圍繞 BTC 持有者 MicroStrategy (MSTR) 的惡作劇值得關注，尤其是社交媒體上關於經紀商減少對該公司風險敞口的熱議。這一減少伴隨著保證金要求的大幅增加，引發了人們對潛在波動的擔憂。

Meanwhile, crypto economist Ben Lilly suggests that ether’s price has been suppressed by the growing number of coins locked up in the DeFi protocol Ethena, which shorts ETH futures as part of a delta-neutral hedge strategy to maintain the $1 peg of its stablecoin, USDe. ETH has jumped 10% in the first six days of the year but remains well below its record high.

同時，加密貨幣經濟學家Ben Lilly 表示，以太坊的價格受到DeFi 協議Ethena 中鎖定的代幣數量不斷增加的影響，該協議做空ETH 期貨，作為Delta 中性對沖策略的一部分，以維持其穩定幣USDe 與1 美元的掛鉤。 ETH 在今年前六天內上漲了 10%，但仍遠低於歷史高點。

"This suggests a shift in the market toward delta-neutral exposure on ETH instead of seeking upside by holding it as collateral. Thus, the ETH price is likely to be muted on the upside because of Ethena," Lilly said on X.

「這表明市場正在轉向 ETH 的 Delta 中性敞口，而不是通過將其作為抵押品來尋求上漲。因此，由於 Ethena，ETH 價格可能會上漲，」Lilly 在 X 上表示。

Ethena has announced plans to launch iUSDe, a version designed for institutional investors seeking exposure to yield-bearing USDe without direct token interaction. In other DeFi developments, the leading on-chain perp DEX exchange, Hyperliquid, has listed SOLV, the native token of the Bitcoin staking protocol Solv Protocol, and there are whispers of whales looking to buy up the HYPE token. Stay tuned.

Ethena 宣布計劃推出 iUSDe，這是一個專為尋求在沒有直接代幣互動的情況下獲得收益 USDe 投資的機構投資者而設計的版本。在其他 DeFi 發展中，領先的鏈上 Perp DEX 交易所 Hyperliquid 已經列出了 SOLV，這是比特幣質押協議 Solv Protocol 的原生代幣，並且有傳言稱鯨魚希望購買 HYPE 代幣。敬請關注。

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