儘管機率很低，選擇權交易員還是對比特幣下了重註，價格達到 12 萬美元

比特幣是全球市值最大的加密貨幣，最近幾週經歷了動盪的趨勢

Bitcoin has been experiencing turbulent price movements lately, keeping traders on edge as they try to anticipate the cryptocurrency’s next move. While the long-term outlook for Bitcoin remains bullish, the short-term trajectory is always subject to a high degree of uncertainty. In recent weeks, a growing number of options traders have been placing significant bets on the possibility of Bitcoin reaching $120,000 in the near future. These traders are undeterred by the low probability of such a price surge, and some are willing to bet large sums in anticipation of a massive rally.

比特幣最近經歷了動蕩的價格走勢，讓交易者在試圖預測加密貨幣的下一步走勢時感到緊張。雖然比特幣的長期前景仍然看漲，但短期軌跡始終受到高度不確定性的影響。最近幾週，越來越多的選擇權交易者對比特幣在不久的將來達到 12 萬美元的可能性進行了大量押注。這些交易者並沒有因為價格飆升的可能性極低而被嚇倒，一些交易者願意在預期價格大幅上漲的情況下押注大筆資金。

Bitcoin’s Price Action and Market Sentiment

比特幣的價格走勢與市場情緒

Bitcoin’s price has been hovering around the $106,000 mark after experiencing a series of highs and corrections. The cryptocurrency’s strong performance over the past year has attracted both institutional and retail investors, who are keeping a close eye on the market as it fluctuates.

比特幣價格在經歷一系列高點和回檔後，一直徘徊在106,000美元大關附近。這種加密貨幣在過去一年的強勁表現吸引了機構投資者和散戶投資者，他們密切關注市場的波動。

Bitcoin began 2022 with a price of around $47,000, and it experienced a rapid surge in the first quarter, climbing to highs of nearly $62,000 in April. However, the cryptocurrency encountered resistance at this level and consolidated within a range for several months.

2022 年伊始，比特幣的價格約為 47,000 美元，第一季經歷了快速飆升，4 月攀升至近 62,000 美元的高點。然而，加密貨幣在這個水平上遇到了阻力，並在幾個月的區間內盤整。

In the second half of 2022, Bitcoin slowly recovered from its lows and rallied once more, reaching new all-time highs above $69,000 in November. As the year came to a close, Bitcoin faced another round of selling pressure and dropped back below the $60,000 mark.

2022 年下半年，比特幣從低點緩慢復甦，再次反彈，並在 11 月達到 69,000 美元以上的歷史新高。年末之際，比特幣面臨又一輪拋售壓力，跌回6萬美元大關下方。

Bitcoin’s price has shown resilience despite the Federal Reserve’s decision to begin tapering its bond purchases and signaling potential interest rate hikes in 2023. The cryptocurrency recovered from lows around $33,000 in July 2022 and rallied strongly in the fourth quarter, setting the stage for further gains in 2023.

儘管聯準會決定開始縮減購債規模並暗示2023 年可能升息，但比特幣的價格仍顯示出韌性。 ，為比特幣進一步上漲奠定了基礎。

As Bitcoin continues to navigate the volatile market conditions, options traders are actively betting on different price scenarios. These traders use Bitcoin options contracts to buy or sell Bitcoin at a predetermined price (strike price) before a specific expiration date. By purchasing options with a $120,000 strike price, they are essentially placing a bet on Bitcoin’s price reaching this level within the option’s timeframe.

隨著比特幣持續應對波動的市場環境，選擇權交易者正積極押注不同的價格情境。這些交易者使用比特幣選擇權合約在特定到期日之前以預定價格（執行價格）買賣比特幣。透過購買執行價格為 120,000 美元的選擇權，他們實際上是在押注比特幣的價格在選擇權的時間範圍內達到這一水平。

According to recent data, the volume of options contracts with a $120,000 strike price has surged, particularly for options that expire in the coming months. This spike in activity is reflective of growing confidence among certain market participants that Bitcoin’s price could experience a dramatic rally in the near future. While the probability of Bitcoin reaching $120,000 within the next few months is considered low by traditional analysts, these options traders are banking on a potential breakout fueled by unexpected bullish news or macroeconomic developments.

根據最近的數據，執行價格為 12 萬美元的選擇權合約數量激增，尤其是未來幾個月到期的選擇權。這種活動的激增反映出某些市場參與者對比特幣價格可能在不久的將來大幅上漲的信心不斷增強。雖然傳統分析師認為比特幣在未來幾個月內達到 12 萬美元的可能性很低，但這些選擇權交易員寄望於意外的看漲消息或宏觀經濟發展推動比特幣的潛在突破。

The Role of Options in Bitcoin Trading

期權在比特幣交易中的作用

Options contracts play a crucial role in enabling traders to speculate on Bitcoin’s price movements. Options provide a way to gain exposure to Bitcoin’s price changes with a fraction of the capital required for direct purchases. If Bitcoin reaches or exceeds $120,000 before the option expires, the payoff for traders can be enormous, especially considering the leverage inherent in options contracts.

選擇權合約在交易者推測比特幣價格走勢方面發揮著至關重要的作用。選擇權提供了一種利用直接購買所需資本的一小部分來獲得比特幣價格變化風險的方法。如果比特幣在期權到期前達到或超過 120,000 美元，交易者的回報可能是巨大的，特別是考慮到期權合約固有的槓桿作用。

However, the downside is equally significant. If Bitcoin fails to hit the $120,000 mark, the options traders lose their entire premium paid for the contracts. This high-risk, high-reward dynamic is what makes options trading particularly appealing to more experienced and risk-tolerant investors. These traders believe that, even though the odds are low, the potential reward from a Bitcoin surge could justify the risk of betting on such a high price target.

然而，其缺點也同樣顯著。如果比特幣未能達到 12 萬美元大關，選擇權交易者將損失為合約支付的全部權利金。這種高風險、高回報的動態使得選擇交易對更有經驗和風險承受能力的投資者特別有吸引力。這些交易員認為，儘管賠率很低，但比特幣飆升的潛在回報可能證明押注如此高的價格目標的風險是合理的。

The traders’ bets on Bitcoin reaching $120,000 are also influenced by the broader market sentiment and their assessment of the factors that could drive Bitcoin’s price higher in 2023. Many traders believe that Bitcoin has entered a new phase of institutional adoption, with major companies and hedge funds increasing their exposure to the cryptocurrency. The prospect of a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the U.S., as well as the growing interest in Bitcoin as a store of value amid economic uncertainty, has further fueled optimism.

交易員對比特幣的押注達到12 萬美元，也受到更廣泛的市場情緒以及他們對2023 年可能推動比特幣價格走高的因素的評估的影響。的新階段，各大公司和對沖基金增加了對加密貨幣的投資。美國比特幣交易所交易基金（ETF）的前景，以及在經濟不確定的情況下人們對比特幣作為價值儲存手段的興趣日益濃厚，進一步激發了樂觀情緒。

Additionally, the growing global recognition of Bitcoin as a legitimate asset class, combined with its use as a hedge against inflation, could create a perfect storm for a price surge. If positive macroeconomic news, such as a shift in Federal Reserve policy or greater institutional adoption, were to align with bullish sentiment, Bitcoin could indeed experience a rapid price increase, driving it toward the $120,000 target.

此外，全球日益認識到比特幣作為一種合法資產類別，再加上其作為通膨對沖工具，可能會引發一場價格飆升的完美風暴。如果積極的宏觀經濟消息，例如聯準會政策的轉變或更多的機構採用，與看漲情緒一致，比特幣的價格確實可能會迅速上漲，推動其向 12 萬美元的目標邁進。

While the bets on Bitcoin reaching $120,000 demonstrate significant optimism, it’s important to approach the market with caution. Bitcoin’s history has been marked by extreme volatility, and while the long-term outlook remains positive, short-term price fluctuations can be unpredictable. Furthermore

雖然對比特幣的押注達到 12 萬美元，這表明人們非常樂觀，但謹慎對待市場也很重要。比特幣的歷史以極度波動為標誌，雖然長期前景仍然樂觀，但短期價格波動可能難以預測。另外