礦工減半前的比特幣累積顯示市場信心

隨著 4 月 19 日比特幣減半的臨近，礦工中出現了令人驚訝的趨勢。與 2016 年和 2020 年減半前的拋售相比，礦商現在正在囤積 BTC，打破了過去的模式。礦工行為的這種轉變導致自 2024 年初以來，礦工的 BTC 總餘額增加了 12,100 BTC，達到 217,000 BTC。

Miners' Accumulation Ahead of Bitcoin Halving Signals Market Confidence

比特幣減半前礦工的增持訊號顯示市場信心

As the highly anticipated Bitcoin halving event approaches on April 19, a striking shift in miner behavior is emerging. Unlike the pre-halving sell-offs witnessed during the Halvings of 2016 and 2020, miners are now accumulating Bitcoin, defying historical trends.

隨著 4 月 19 日備受期待的比特幣減半事件臨近，礦工行為正在顯著變化。與 2016 年和 2020 年減半期間出現的減半前拋售不同，礦商現在正在囤積比特幣，這違背了歷史趨勢。

An analysis by an industry expert, citing data from CryptoQuant, reveals that since the beginning of 2024, the total Bitcoin balance held by miners has surged by an astonishing 12,100 BTC, reaching a total of 217,000 BTC. This is in stark contrast to the pattern observed in previous halving cycles, when miners typically reduced their holdings in anticipation of potential revenue declines.

業界專家引用CryptoQuant的數據分析顯示，自2024年初以來，礦工持有的比特幣餘額激增了驚人的12,100 BTC，達到217,000 BTC。這與先前減半週期中觀察到的模式形成鮮明對比，當時礦商通常會因預期潛在收入下降而減少持股。

The halving event is a protocol-level adjustment that slashes miner block rewards by half, from the current 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. This means that miners will have to expend more resources to generate the same revenue they would have in the previous epoch.

這次減半事件是協議層面的調整，將礦工的區塊獎勵削減一半，從目前的 6.25 BTC 降至 3.125 BTC。這意味著礦工將不得不花費更多的資源來產生與上一個時代​​相同的收入。

Historically, this reduction in rewards has led to some small miners liquidating their holdings and exiting the market, while larger miners with greater resources have seized the opportunity to buy more efficient miners to stay competitive.

從歷史上看，獎勵的減少導致一些小型礦商清算其持有的資產並退出市場，而擁有更多資源的大型礦商則抓住機會購買更有效率的礦商以保持競爭力。

However, the current trend of accumulation suggests that miners may be anticipating a different outcome this time. The chart below illustrates the miners' selling behavior during the previous halvings.

然而，目前的增持趨勢表明，礦工這次可能會預期不同的結果。下圖展示了礦商在先前減半期間的拋售行為。

[Image of Bitcoin miner balance chart showing sell-offs in 2016 and accumulation in 2020]

[比特幣礦商餘額圖顯示 2016 年拋售和 2020 年增持]

Source: Analyst on X

資料來源：X 分析師

As the chart shows, miners continued to offload their BTC post-halving in 2016. However, even with the increased selling pressure, Bitcoin prices rose sharply in 2017, peaking at $20,000 before cooling off in 2018.

如圖所示，礦商在 2016 年減半後繼續拋售 BTC。

The 2020 halving marked a turning point in miner behavior. As Bitcoin prices skyrocketed towards record highs, miners adopted a holding strategy, rapidly accumulating coins, as the chart shows. This current accumulation trend suggests that miners may anticipate a similar price surge.

2020 年減半標誌著礦工行為的轉捩點。如圖所示，隨著比特幣價格飆升至歷史新高，礦工採取了持有策略，迅速累積比特幣。目前的累積趨勢表明，礦商可能預計會出現類似的價格飆升。

Impact on Bitcoin Price

對比特幣價格的影響

The shift in miner behavior could have a positive impact on Bitcoin prices. Miners, who are expected to readjust and become more efficient after April 19, are holding a vote of confidence even amid the current market downturn.

礦工行為的轉變可能會對比特幣價格產生正面影響。預計 4 月 19 日後礦工將進行調整併提高效率，即使在當前市場低迷的情況下，他們仍持有信任票。

With a reduction in daily BTC emissions post-halving, coupled with miners accumulating and institutions pouring in via spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), prices could be propelled even higher.

隨著減半後每日比特幣排放量的減少，再加上礦工的累積和機構透過現貨比特幣交易所交易基金（ETF）湧入，價格可能會進一步上漲。

The pace at which prices rise remains to be seen. Bitcoin is currently bearish and remains under immense selling pressure, but a bullish breakout above the current range of $74,000 could pave the way for further gains towards $100,000.

價格上漲的速度仍有待觀察。比特幣目前看跌，仍面臨巨大的拋售壓力，但看漲突破當前 74,000 美元的區間可能為進一步上漲至 10 萬美元鋪平道路。