矿工减半前的比特币积累表明市场信心

随着 4 月 19 日比特币减半的临近，矿工中出现了令人惊讶的趋势。与 2016 年和 2020 年减半前的抛售相比，矿商现在正在囤积 BTC，打破了过去的模式。矿工行为的这种转变导致自 2024 年初以来，矿工的 BTC 总余额增加了 12,100 BTC，达到 217,000 BTC。

Miners' Accumulation Ahead of Bitcoin Halving Signals Market Confidence

比特币减半前矿工的增持信号表明市场信心

As the highly anticipated Bitcoin halving event approaches on April 19, a striking shift in miner behavior is emerging. Unlike the pre-halving sell-offs witnessed during the Halvings of 2016 and 2020, miners are now accumulating Bitcoin, defying historical trends.

随着 4 月 19 日备受期待的比特币减半事件临近，矿工行为正在出现显着变化。与 2016 年和 2020 年减半期间出现的减半前抛售不同，矿商现在正在囤积比特币，这违背了历史趋势。

An analysis by an industry expert, citing data from CryptoQuant, reveals that since the beginning of 2024, the total Bitcoin balance held by miners has surged by an astonishing 12,100 BTC, reaching a total of 217,000 BTC. This is in stark contrast to the pattern observed in previous halving cycles, when miners typically reduced their holdings in anticipation of potential revenue declines.

业内专家援引CryptoQuant的数据分析显示，自2024年初以来，矿工持有的比特币余额猛增了惊人的12,100 BTC，达到217,000 BTC。这与之前减半周期中观察到的模式形成鲜明对比，当时矿商通常会因预期潜在收入下降而减少持股。

The halving event is a protocol-level adjustment that slashes miner block rewards by half, from the current 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. This means that miners will have to expend more resources to generate the same revenue they would have in the previous epoch.

此次减半事件是协议层面的调整，将矿工的区块奖励削减一半，从目前的 6.25 BTC 降至 3.125 BTC。这意味着矿工将不得不花费更多的资源来产生与上一个时代相同的收入。

Historically, this reduction in rewards has led to some small miners liquidating their holdings and exiting the market, while larger miners with greater resources have seized the opportunity to buy more efficient miners to stay competitive.

从历史上看，奖励的减少导致一些小型矿商清算其持有的资产并退出市场，而拥有更多资源的大型矿商则抓住机会购买更高效的矿商以保持竞争力。

However, the current trend of accumulation suggests that miners may be anticipating a different outcome this time. The chart below illustrates the miners' selling behavior during the previous halvings.

然而，目前的增持趋势表明，矿工这次可能会预期不同的结果。下图展示了矿商在之前减半期间的抛售行为。

[Image of Bitcoin miner balance chart showing sell-offs in 2016 and accumulation in 2020]

[比特币矿商余额图显示 2016 年抛售和 2020 年增持]

Source: Analyst on X

资料来源：X 分析师

As the chart shows, miners continued to offload their BTC post-halving in 2016. However, even with the increased selling pressure, Bitcoin prices rose sharply in 2017, peaking at $20,000 before cooling off in 2018.

如图所示，矿商在 2016 年减半后继续抛售 BTC。然而，尽管抛售压力加大，比特币价格在 2017 年仍大幅上涨，最高达到 20,000 美元，然后在 2018 年降温。

The 2020 halving marked a turning point in miner behavior. As Bitcoin prices skyrocketed towards record highs, miners adopted a holding strategy, rapidly accumulating coins, as the chart shows. This current accumulation trend suggests that miners may anticipate a similar price surge.

2020 年减半标志着矿工行为的转折点。如图所示，随着比特币价格飙升至历史新高，矿工采取了持有策略，迅速积累比特币。目前的积累趋势表明，矿商可能预计会出现类似的价格飙升。

Impact on Bitcoin Price

对比特币价格的影响

The shift in miner behavior could have a positive impact on Bitcoin prices. Miners, who are expected to readjust and become more efficient after April 19, are holding a vote of confidence even amid the current market downturn.

矿工行为的转变可能会对比特币价格产生积极影响。预计 4 月 19 日后矿工将进行调整并提高效率，即使在当前市场低迷的情况下，他们仍持有信任票。

With a reduction in daily BTC emissions post-halving, coupled with miners accumulating and institutions pouring in via spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), prices could be propelled even higher.

随着减半后每日比特币排放量的减少，再加上矿工的积累和机构通过现货比特币交易所交易基金（ETF）涌入，价格可能会进一步上涨。

The pace at which prices rise remains to be seen. Bitcoin is currently bearish and remains under immense selling pressure, but a bullish breakout above the current range of $74,000 could pave the way for further gains towards $100,000.

价格上涨的速度仍有待观察。比特币目前看跌，仍然面临巨大的抛售压力，但看涨突破当前 74,000 美元的区间可能为进一步上涨至 100,000 美元铺平道路。