邁克·麥格隆（Mike McGlone）警告多狗（Doge）歷史市場過剩的持有者

彭博情報公司的首席商品策略師Mike McGlone已向Dogecoin持有者和更廣泛的加密貨幣社區發出了明顯的警告

Bloomberg Intelligence’s chief commodity strategist, Mike McGlone, has issued a stark caution to Dogecoin (CRYPTO: DOGE) holders and the broader crypto community by drawing comparisons to historical instances of market excess. In a series of recent posts published on X, McGlone invoked the years 1929 and 1999—the notorious eras of the stock market crash and the dot-com bubble—to underscore the risks of speculative “silliness” in digital assets.

彭博情報公司的首席商品策略師邁克·麥格隆（Mike McGlone）通過與市場過剩的歷史實例進行比較，對Dogecoin（Crypto：Doge）持有者和更廣泛的加密貨幣社區表示了鮮明的謹慎。在X上發表的一系列最近的帖子中，McGlone援引了1929年和1999年的股票市場崩潰和互聯網泡沫的臭名昭著的時代，以強調數字資產中投機性“愚蠢”的風險。

McGlone singled out Dogecoin in particular, emphasizing its vulnerability to a potential market reversion, while also pointing to gold as a beneficiary if risk appetite continues to deteriorate. “Dogecoin, 1929, 1999 Risk-Asset Silliness and Gold - The ratio of gold ounces equal to Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) trading almost tick-for-tick with Dogecoin may show the risks of reversion in highly speculative digital assets, with deflationary implications underpinning the metal,” McGlone wrote.

McGlone特別挑出了Dogecoin，強調了其對潛在市場恢復的脆弱性，同時，如果風險胃口繼續惡化，也將黃金視為受益人。 “ Dogecoin，1929年，1999年的風險分析愚蠢和金 - 與比特幣（加密：BTC）交易的金盎司的比率幾乎與Dogecoin交易幾乎是tick腳的，這可能顯示出高度投機性數字阿薩特的回歸風險，具有金屬的縮水含義，”

The chart below shows how closely the meme-inspired cryptocurrency’s market cap has mirrored the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio. The tracking of these two metrics suggests that whenever the relative value of Bitcoin to gold experienced a shift, Dogecoin’s trajectory pivoted sharply, exposing it to the same market forces that have historically challenged highly speculative assets.

下圖顯示了模因啟發的加密貨幣的市值如何反映了比特幣與金的比率。對這兩個指標的跟踪表明，每當比特幣與黃金的相對價值經歷轉變時，Dogecoin的軌跡急劇旋轉，將其暴露於歷史上挑戰高度投機資產的同一市場力量。

McGlone’s broader thesis does not end with Dogecoin. In another post, he turned attention to the notion of gold reaching $4,000 per ounce, linking such a possibility to dynamics in the bond market and to potential declines across risk-on sectors, including cryptocurrencies.

McGlone的更廣泛的論文並非以Dogecoin結束。在另一篇文章中，他將注意力轉移到每盎司4,000美元的黃金概念上，將這種可能性與債券市場的動態聯繫起來，並將包括加密貨幣在內的風險範圍內的動態下降。

“What Gets Gold to $4,000? 2% T-Bonds? Melting Cryptos May Guide - A path toward $4,000 an ounce for #gold could require something that’s typically a matter of time: reversion in silly-expensive risk assets, notably cryptocurrencies,” he stated.

他說：“什麼是黃金到$ 4,000？2％的t鍵？熔融加密貨幣可能指導 - #gold的一盎司$ 4,000的途徑可能需要一些通常是時間問題的東西：愚蠢的昂貴風險資產的恢復，尤其是加密貨幣。”

McGlone underscored that if the US stock market were to remain under pressure, bond yields might eventually be pulled lower by the comparatively meager 2% or lower yields seen in China and Japan. Such a scenario, in McGlone’s view, adds tailwinds for gold because a shift from relatively high-yielding Treasuries to lower-yielding government bonds abroad could drive investors toward alternative havens.

McGlone強調說，如果美國股票市場保持壓力，債券收益率最終可能會因中國和日本的相對較小的2％或較低的收益率而降低。在麥格隆（McGlone）的角度來看，這種情況增加了黃金的逆風，因為從相對較高的收益國庫轉變為在國外較低的政府債券的轉變可能會使投資者轉向另類的天堂。

The chart shared by McGlone further reinforces his analysis of decelerating demand for risk assets. One visual, titled "Elevated US Stocks, Bond Yields vs. China, Japan," displays the persistent divergence between US Treasury yields, which are currently around the 4.19% mark at the time of writing, and the comparatively subdued rates of Chinese and Japanese government bonds, situated closer to 2% and 1.51% respectively.

McGlone共享的圖表進一步加強了他對對風險資產需求減速需求的分析。一個標題為“美國股票上漲，債券與中國，日本的視覺效果”，顯示了美國財政收益率之間的持續差異，目前在撰寫書寫時的差額約為4.19％，中國和日本政府債券的比率分別接近2％和1.51％。

The graphic also portrays the S&P 500's market cap-to-GDP ratio, which remains at historical highs despite recent volatility. McGlone's conclusion is that continued pressure on equity markets, combined with global bond rates that sit well below US yields, could accelerate a rotation into gold if investors perceive a downturn in "expensive" asset classes, including risk assets like Dogecoin.

該圖形還描繪了標準普爾500指數的市場上限與GDP比率，儘管最近波動率仍然保持歷史高潮。 McGlone的結論是，如果投資者認為投資者認為“昂貴”的資產類別的低迷，包括DogeCoin等風險資產，則持續對股票市場的持續壓力，加上遠低於美國收益率的全球債券利率。

A third post addressed the broader altcoin market, with McGlone pointing to Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) as a leading indicator of whether the overall trend has turned bearish for digital assets. "Has the Trend Turned Down? Ethereum May Guide - Ether, the No. 2 cryptocurrency, is breaking down, with deflationary implications and gold underpinnings," he noted.

第三篇帖子介紹了更廣泛的山寨幣市場，麥格隆指出以太坊（Crypto：ETH）是總體趨勢是否使數字資產看跌的主要指標。他指出：“趨勢拒絕了嗎？

At the time of writing, DOGE is trading at $0.16663.

在寫作時，Doge的交易價格為0.16663美元。