迈克·麦格隆（Mike McGlone）警告多狗（Doge）历史市场过剩的持有者

彭博情报公司的首席商品策略师Mike McGlone已向Dogecoin持有者和更广泛的加密货币社区发出了明显的警告

Bloomberg Intelligence’s chief commodity strategist, Mike McGlone, has issued a stark caution to Dogecoin (CRYPTO: DOGE) holders and the broader crypto community by drawing comparisons to historical instances of market excess. In a series of recent posts published on X, McGlone invoked the years 1929 and 1999—the notorious eras of the stock market crash and the dot-com bubble—to underscore the risks of speculative “silliness” in digital assets.

彭博情报公司的首席商品策略师迈克·麦格隆（Mike McGlone）通过与市场过剩的历史实例进行比较，对Dogecoin（Crypto：Doge）持有者和更广泛的加密货币社区表示了鲜明的谨慎。在X上发表的一系列最近的帖子中，McGlone援引了1929年和1999年的股票市场崩溃和互联网泡沫的臭名昭著的时代，以强调数字资产中投机性“愚蠢”的风险。

McGlone singled out Dogecoin in particular, emphasizing its vulnerability to a potential market reversion, while also pointing to gold as a beneficiary if risk appetite continues to deteriorate. “Dogecoin, 1929, 1999 Risk-Asset Silliness and Gold - The ratio of gold ounces equal to Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) trading almost tick-for-tick with Dogecoin may show the risks of reversion in highly speculative digital assets, with deflationary implications underpinning the metal,” McGlone wrote.

McGlone特别挑出了Dogecoin，强调了其对潜在市场恢复的脆弱性，同时，如果风险胃口继续恶化，也将黄金视为受益人。 “ Dogecoin，1929年，1999年的风险分析愚蠢和金 - 与比特币（加密：BTC）交易的金盎司的比率几乎与Dogecoin交易几乎是tick脚的，这可能显示出高度投机性数字阿萨特的回归风险，具有金属的缩水含义，”

The chart below shows how closely the meme-inspired cryptocurrency’s market cap has mirrored the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio. The tracking of these two metrics suggests that whenever the relative value of Bitcoin to gold experienced a shift, Dogecoin’s trajectory pivoted sharply, exposing it to the same market forces that have historically challenged highly speculative assets.

下图显示了模因启发的加密货币的市值如何反映了比特币与金的比率。对这两个指标的跟踪表明，每当比特币与黄金的相对价值经历转变时，Dogecoin的轨迹急剧旋转，将其暴露于历史上挑战高度投机资产的同一市场力量。

McGlone’s broader thesis does not end with Dogecoin. In another post, he turned attention to the notion of gold reaching $4,000 per ounce, linking such a possibility to dynamics in the bond market and to potential declines across risk-on sectors, including cryptocurrencies.

McGlone的更广泛的论文并非以Dogecoin结束。在另一篇文章中，他将注意力转移到每盎司4,000美元的黄金概念上，将这种可能性与债券市场的动态联系起来，并将包括加密货币在内的风险范围内的动态下降。

“What Gets Gold to $4,000? 2% T-Bonds? Melting Cryptos May Guide - A path toward $4,000 an ounce for #gold could require something that’s typically a matter of time: reversion in silly-expensive risk assets, notably cryptocurrencies,” he stated.

他说：“什么是黄金到$ 4,000？2％的t键？熔融加密货币可能指导 - #gold的一盎司$ 4,000的途径可能需要一些通常是时间问题的东西：愚蠢的昂贵风险资产的恢复，尤其是加密货币。”

McGlone underscored that if the US stock market were to remain under pressure, bond yields might eventually be pulled lower by the comparatively meager 2% or lower yields seen in China and Japan. Such a scenario, in McGlone’s view, adds tailwinds for gold because a shift from relatively high-yielding Treasuries to lower-yielding government bonds abroad could drive investors toward alternative havens.

McGlone强调说，如果美国股票市场保持压力，债券收益率最终可能会因中国和日本的相对较小的2％或较低的收益率而降低。在麦格隆（McGlone）的角度来看，这种情况增加了黄金的逆风，因为从相对较高的收益国库转变为在国外较低的政府债券的转变可能会使投资者转向另类的天堂。

The chart shared by McGlone further reinforces his analysis of decelerating demand for risk assets. One visual, titled "Elevated US Stocks, Bond Yields vs. China, Japan," displays the persistent divergence between US Treasury yields, which are currently around the 4.19% mark at the time of writing, and the comparatively subdued rates of Chinese and Japanese government bonds, situated closer to 2% and 1.51% respectively.

McGlone共享的图表进一步加强了他对对风险资产需求减速需求的分析。一个标题为“美国股票上涨，债券与中国，日本的视觉效果”，显示了美国财政收益率之间的持续差异，目前在撰写书写时的差额约为4.19％，中国和日本政府债券的比率分别接近2％和1.51％。

The graphic also portrays the S&P 500's market cap-to-GDP ratio, which remains at historical highs despite recent volatility. McGlone's conclusion is that continued pressure on equity markets, combined with global bond rates that sit well below US yields, could accelerate a rotation into gold if investors perceive a downturn in "expensive" asset classes, including risk assets like Dogecoin.

该图形还描绘了标准普尔500指数的市场上限与GDP比率，尽管最近波动率仍然保持历史高潮。 McGlone的结论是，如果投资者认为投资者认为“昂贵”的资产类别的低迷，包括DogeCoin等风险资产，则持续对股票市场的持续压力，加上远低于美国收益率的全球债券利率。

A third post addressed the broader altcoin market, with McGlone pointing to Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) as a leading indicator of whether the overall trend has turned bearish for digital assets. "Has the Trend Turned Down? Ethereum May Guide - Ether, the No. 2 cryptocurrency, is breaking down, with deflationary implications and gold underpinnings," he noted.

第三篇帖子介绍了更广泛的山寨币市场，麦格隆指出以太坊（Crypto：ETH）是总体趋势是否使数字资产看跌的主要指标。他指出：“趋势拒绝了吗？

At the time of writing, DOGE is trading at $0.16663.

在写作时，Doge的交易价格为0.16663美元。