市場是否停止獎勵鑽石手？

曾幾何時，Zhao Changpeng的說“如果您不能霍德，就不會富有”被認為是加密貨幣世界的黃金規則。

Once upon a time, Zhao Changpeng's words, "If you can't hodl, you won't get rich," were regarded as the golden rule of investment in the crypto world. As the saying goes, the essence of crypto investment lies in buying, holding firmly, and then cashing out at a profit to gain substantial returns—a philosophy that made HODL very popular in the community.

曾幾何時，Zhao Changpeng的話：“如果您不能霍德，就不會致富”被視為加密貨幣世界中投資的黃金法則。俗話說，加密投資的本質在於購買，牢固地持有，然後以利潤賺錢以獲取可觀的回報 - 這種理念使霍德在社區中非常受歡迎。

Some investment institutions gained significant returns through in-depth research and betting, such as the last cycle where top-tier funds achieved hundreds or even thousands of times returns on MATIC and AAVE. Various legendary wealth stories led retail investors to generally believe in the powerful effect of diamond hands. However, while this investment philosophy was somewhat effective in the last cycle, it is no longer revered by the market in this cycle, especially among players holding a lot of altcoins.

一些投資機構通過深入的研究和博彩獲得了可觀的回報，例如，在Matic和Aave上獲得了數百甚至數千次回報的最後一個週期。各種傳奇的財富故事導致散戶投資者普遍相信鑽石手的強大影響。但是，儘管這種投資理念在最後一個週期中有些有效，但在這個週期中，它不再受到市場的尊敬，尤其是在擁有許多Altcoins的玩家中。

Under a four-year cycle, the market structure has undergone considerable changes. If one cannot adjust their style in a timely manner, they often face the risk of standing guard at the peak. Has the market really stopped rewarding diamond hands?

在四年的周期下，市場結構發生了很大的變化。如果一個人無法及時調整自己的風格，他們通常會面臨在峰頂站立的風險。市場真的停止了獎勵鑽石手嗎？

1. Memes and AI Take Center Stage, General Bull Market No Longer

1。Memes和AI處於中心舞台，通用牛市不再

In past cycles of the crypto market, a general bull market often followed six months after Bitcoin's halving. Market funds would accumulate in Bitcoin, then spread to Ethereum after reaching a certain level, followed by mainstream altcoins, and finally small-cap altcoins and meme coins would go wild, marking the end of a typical bull market cycle.

在過去的加密貨幣市場的過去循環中，比特幣減半六個月後，通常是一個通用牛市。市場資金將在比特幣中積累，然後在達到一定水平後擴散到以太坊，然後是主流山寨幣，最後，小型牛油股和模因硬幣會變得瘋狂，這標誌著典型的牛市市場週期的結束。

This cycle, however, saw the first wave of upward momentum brought forward by the favorable Bitcoin spot ETF news. After Bitcoin enjoyed its moment in the spotlight, the crypto market remained quiet for a long time. The long-awaited rise in Q4 2024 turned out to be quite brief.

然而，這個週期看到了有利的比特幣現場ETF新聞帶來的第一波向上勢頭。在比特幣享受著焦點的時刻之後，加密貨幣市場長期保持安靜。期待已久的第4季度2024年的上升非常簡短。

If you embraced popular assets like Bitcoin, SOL, and Dogecoin early in this cycle, the returns for diamond hands have been quite substantial. But if the altcoins you chose were not favored by the market, such as those in staking, inscriptions, gaming, or NFTs, the returns you might see could be "tragically poor."

如果您在此週期初期接受了像比特幣，SOL和Dogecoin這樣的流行資產，那麼Diamond Hands的回報將是相當大的。但是，如果您選擇的AltCoins並不受到市場的青睞，例如藏品，銘文，遊戲或NFT，那麼您可能會看到的回報可能是“可悲的”。

Recently, Binance's launch of new coins, often peaking immediately upon listing, has led to a continuous decline. Projects with slightly better quality and popularity might experience a brief period of increase, while those without heat or utility that continue to unlock have seen buying pressure weaken and set new historical lows. If diamond hands unfortunately chose obscure sectors and coins, holding on without selling could lead to significant losses.

最近，Binance發射的新硬幣通常在上市時立即達到頂峰，導致不斷下降。質量和受歡迎程度稍好的項目可能會遇到短暫的增加，而那些繼續解鎖的沒有熱量或公用事業的項目看到購買壓力減弱並設定了新的歷史低點。如果不幸的是，戴蒙德手選擇了晦澀的部門和硬幣，那麼堅持不出售的情況可能會導致巨大的損失。

Moreover, compared to the relatively hot DeFi and NFT sectors in the last cycle, this cycle has not seen any truly breakout innovations that could compete with them. Market funds have been stagnant for a long time, concentrated in Bitcoin, memes, and AI concept coins.

此外，與上一個週期中相對較熱的Defi和NFT部門相比，該週期沒有看到任何可以與他們競爭的真正突破創新。市場資金已經停滯了很長時間，集中在比特幣，模因和AI概念硬幣上。

The chart below clearly shows that Bitcoin's market cap share saw significant declines in both 2017 and 2021, due to the general rise of altcoins. By 2023, Bitcoin's market cap share began to climb steadily, rising from 38% to even over 60% at one point. In contrast, Ethereum has been troubled by multiple factors, with its market cap share starting to decline since the beginning of 2023.

下圖清楚地表明，由於山寨幣的總體上升，比特幣的市值份額在2017年和2021年都顯著下降。到2023年，比特幣的市值開始穩步上升，從38％上升到60％以上。相比之下，以太坊受到多種因素的困擾，自2023年初以來，其市場上限份額開始下降。

Historically, it is rare for Bitcoin's market cap share to rise without a corresponding general bull market for altcoins.

從歷史上看，沒有比特幣的市值份額很少，而沒有相應的總牛市市場。

Now, the market seems to only reward diamond hands holding a very small number of coins like Bitcoin.

現在，市場似乎只獎勵鑽石之手，拿著少量硬幣等硬幣。

2. Mainstream Altcoins Underperform Expectations

2。主流山寨幣表現不佳期望

The difficulty of the altcoin market in this cycle is incomparable to the last cycle. Taking the last cycle's L1 as an example, based on the lowest point after listing on Binance, DOT achieved a maximum return of over 20 times, NEAR nearly 40 times, AVAX over 40 times, SOL over 250 times, and UNI in the DeFi sector also returned over 20 times. The wealth effect in the industry was very significant.

在這個週期中，Altcoin市場的困難與最後一個週期無與倫比。以最後一個週期的L1為例，基於列表列表後的最低點，DOT獲得了20次以上的最大回報，接近40次，超過40次，SOL超過250次，而在Defi部門中的Uni還返回了20多次。該行業的財富影響非常重要。

It is worth mentioning that the aforementioned tokens with substantial returns all fell to their bottom ranges six months to a year after reaching historical highs.

值得一提的是，上述代幣具有可觀的回報，所有這些都落在了底部範圍內，範圍為六個月至一年。

In this cycle's infrastructure L1, aside from SOL/SUI performing decently, the rest have underperformed. In L2, OP recorded a maximum return of 10 times, while ARB reached a maximum of 3 times. Both fell to their bottom ranges within five months after hitting new highs, with ARB even dropping from a historical high of $2.42 to a historical low of $0.34. Stablecoins like USUAL/ENA recorded decent returns, but from their lows, they also fell below 10 times.

在這個週期的基礎架構L1中，除了SOL/SUI表現出色外，其餘的表現不佳。在L2中，OP記錄的最大回報率為10次，而ARB最多達到3次。兩者都在達到新高點後的五個月內降到了最低點，ARB甚至從歷史高點下降到2.42美元的歷史低點。像平時/ENA這樣的穩定​​幣記錄了不錯的回報，但從低點開始，它們也下降了10次。

Some projects that were highly sought after by VC capital have performed poorly, with EIGEN achieving a maximum return of 2 times, now hitting historical lows. ETHFI and RENZO, which were re-staked, began a downward trend immediately after

VC Capital高度追捧的一些項目的表現較差，而Eigen的最高回報率為2次，現在遇到了歷史低谷。重新固化的Ethfi和Renzo立即開始了下降趨勢