萊特幣 (LTC) 價格預測：LTC 會重回 2021 年高點嗎？

自從觸及 64 美元的局部低點以來，萊特幣 [LTC] 一直處於上升軌道，達到 98 美元的高點。事實上，截至撰寫本文時，LTC 過去一個月已上漲 20.42%，交易價格為 89 美元。

Litecoin [LTC] has surged by over 50% in the past two months, sparking optimism among traders. However, a closer examination of the price charts reveals a hidden pain point that could potentially hinder LTC’s further ascent.

萊特幣 [LTC] 在過去兩個月中飆升了 50% 以上，引發了交易者的樂觀情緒。然而，仔細檢查價格圖表就會發現一個隱藏的痛點，可能會阻礙 LTC 的進一步上漲。

A recent analysis by IntoTheBlock highlighted that over 60% of LTC holders are currently in profit. While this may sound like a positive statistic, it could lead to traders cashing out their gains, ultimately exerting downward pressure on the altcoin’s price.

IntoTheBlock 最近的一項分析強調，超過 60% 的 LTC 持有者目前處於盈利狀態。雖然這聽起來像是一個積極的統計數據，但它可能會導致交易者兌現收益，最終對山寨幣的價格施加下行壓力。

The analysis further revealed that a large portion of these profitable holders bought LTC in 2021 at much higher price levels. As such, they might be eager to sell their holdings once they reach the breakeven point.

分析進一步顯示，這些獲利持有者中的很大一部分在 2021 年以更高的價格水平購買了 LTC。因此，一旦達到損益平衡點，他們可能會急於出售所持有股份。

During the 2021 bull cycle, LTC surged to highs of $413 in May and $302 in November. In comparison, the altcoin is currently trading at around $89.

在 2021 年多頭週期中，LTC 在 5 月飆升至 413 美元的高位，在 11 月飆升至 302 美元的高點。相比之下，山寨幣目前的交易價格約為 89 美元。

This shows that despite the recent gains, LTC is still trading approximately 78% below the 2021 peak. Hence, for these holders to breakeven, the altcoin has to 2.5X from current levels.

這表明，儘管 LTC 最近有所上漲，但其交易價格仍比 2021 年高峰低約 78%。因此，為了讓這些持有者實現損益平衡，山寨幣必須比目前水準上漲 2.5 倍。

2021 LTC price action on Binance. Source: Binance

2021 年幣安 LTC 價格走勢。來源：幣安

However, given the current market conditions and macroeconomic factors, such a scenario appears unlikely in the short term.

然而，考慮到當前的市場狀況和宏觀經濟因素，短期內這種情況似乎不太可能發生。

To put things into perspective, Litecoin began 2023 trading at $64. After surging past the $98 resistance level in early February, the altcoin encountered resistance at $105.

從長遠來看，萊特幣 2023 年伊始的交易價格為 64 美元。在 2 月初突破 98 美元阻力位後，山寨幣在 105 美元處遇到阻力。

After failing to break above $105, LTC corrected slightly and consolidated between $90 and $95 for the next two weeks. Countering the bearish divergence on the MACD, the altcoin surged past the consolidation overhead resistance on 27 February.

在未能突破 105 美元之後，LTC 略有調整，並在接下來的兩週內在 90 美元至 95 美元之間盤整。與 MACD 的看跌背離相反，山寨幣在 2 月 27 日飆升至上方盤整阻力位。

LTC price 1 hour candles. Source: TradingView

LTC 價格 1 小時蠟燭。來源：TradingView

After surging past overhead resistance, LTC appeared to be headed towards the $120 price level. However, the 2021 هولدر breakeven price acted as resistance and pushed LTC back down from the $115 price level.

在突破上方阻力位後，LTC 似乎正朝著 120 美元的價格水平邁進。然而，2021 年的損益平衡價格成為阻力，推動 LTC 從 115 美元的價格水準回落。

Currently, LTC trades at $89 after rebounding from support at $85. However, the 2021 هولدر breakeven price could continue to act as resistance and keep LTC from surging further upwards.

目前，LTC 從 85 美元支撐位反彈後，交易價格為 89 美元。然而，2021 年的損益平衡價格可能會繼續成為阻力，阻止 LTC 進一步上漲。