莱特币 (LTC) 价格预测：LTC 会重回 2021 年高点吗？

自触及 64 美元的局部低点以来，莱特币 [LTC] 一直处于上升轨道，达到 98 美元的高点。事实上，截至撰写本文时，LTC 过去一个月已上涨 20.42%，交易价格为 89 美元。

Litecoin [LTC] has surged by over 50% in the past two months, sparking optimism among traders. However, a closer examination of the price charts reveals a hidden pain point that could potentially hinder LTC’s further ascent.

莱特币 [LTC] 在过去两个月中飙升了 50% 以上，引发了交易者的乐观情绪。然而，仔细检查价格图表就会发现一个隐藏的痛点，可能会阻碍 LTC 的进一步上涨。

A recent analysis by IntoTheBlock highlighted that over 60% of LTC holders are currently in profit. While this may sound like a positive statistic, it could lead to traders cashing out their gains, ultimately exerting downward pressure on the altcoin’s price.

IntoTheBlock 最近的一项分析强调，超过 60% 的 LTC 持有者目前处于盈利状态。虽然这听起来像是一个积极的统计数据，但它可能会导致交易者兑现收益，最终对山寨币的价格施加下行压力。

The analysis further revealed that a large portion of these profitable holders bought LTC in 2021 at much higher price levels. As such, they might be eager to sell their holdings once they reach the breakeven point.

分析进一步显示，这些盈利持有者中的很大一部分在 2021 年以更高的价格水平购买了 LTC。因此，一旦达到盈亏平衡点，他们可能会急于出售所持股份。

During the 2021 bull cycle, LTC surged to highs of $413 in May and $302 in November. In comparison, the altcoin is currently trading at around $89.

在 2021 年牛市周期中，LTC 在 5 月飙升至 413 美元的高位，在 11 月飙升至 302 美元的高位。相比之下，山寨币目前的交易价格约为 89 美元。

This shows that despite the recent gains, LTC is still trading approximately 78% below the 2021 peak. Hence, for these holders to breakeven, the altcoin has to 2.5X from current levels.

这表明，尽管 LTC 最近有所上涨，但其交易价格仍比 2021 年峰值低约 78%。因此，为了让这些持有者实现盈亏平衡，山寨币必须比当前水平上涨 2.5 倍。

2021 LTC price action on Binance. Source: Binance

2021 年币安 LTC 价格走势。来源：币安

However, given the current market conditions and macroeconomic factors, such a scenario appears unlikely in the short term.

然而，考虑到当前的市场状况和宏观经济因素，短期内这种情况似乎不太可能发生。

To put things into perspective, Litecoin began 2023 trading at $64. After surging past the $98 resistance level in early February, the altcoin encountered resistance at $105.

从长远来看，莱特币 2023 年伊始的交易价格为 64 美元。在 2 月初突破 98 美元阻力位后，山寨币在 105 美元处遇到阻力。

After failing to break above $105, LTC corrected slightly and consolidated between $90 and $95 for the next two weeks. Countering the bearish divergence on the MACD, the altcoin surged past the consolidation overhead resistance on 27 February.

在未能突破 105 美元之后，LTC 略有调整，并在接下来的两周内在 90 美元至 95 美元之间盘整。与 MACD 的看跌背离相反，山寨币在 2 月 27 日飙升至上方盘整阻力位。

LTC price 1 hour candles. Source: TradingView

LTC 价格 1 小时蜡烛。来源：TradingView

After surging past overhead resistance, LTC appeared to be headed towards the $120 price level. However, the 2021 هولدر breakeven price acted as resistance and pushed LTC back down from the $115 price level.

在突破上方阻力位后，LTC 似乎正朝着 120 美元的价格水平迈进。然而，2021 年的盈亏平衡价格成为阻力，推动 LTC 从 115 美元的价格水平回落。

Currently, LTC trades at $89 after rebounding from support at $85. However, the 2021 هولدر breakeven price could continue to act as resistance and keep LTC from surging further upwards.

目前，LTC 从 85 美元支撑位反弹后，交易价格为 89 美元。然而，2021 年的盈亏平衡价格可能会继续成为阻力，阻止 LTC 进一步上涨。