傳奇交易員 Peter Brandt 表示，比特幣 (BTC) 今年可能達到 15 萬美元

傳奇交易員 Peter Brandt 表示，比特幣 (BTC) 今年可能會達到 15 萬美元，但不排除可能出現看跌的情況。

Veteran trader Peter Brandt believes that Bitcoin (BTC) may hit $150,000 this year, but he also warns of a possible bearish scenario where the flagship crypto might plummet by more than 50%.

資深交易員 Peter Brandt 認為，比特幣 (BTC) 今年可能會達到 15 萬美元，但他也警告可能出現看跌情景，即旗艦加密貨幣可能暴跌 50% 以上。

Brandt shared his thoughts with his 773,500 followers on the social media platform X, discussing his BTC price analysis and hedging his bets based on Bayesian priors.

Brandt 在社交媒體平台 X 上與他的 773,500 名粉絲分享了他的想法，討論了他的 BTC 價格分析，並根據貝葉斯先驗對沖了他的賭注。

“Preface: what I am saying here will completely confuse those of you who are single narrative dogmatic investors. I am a Bayesian, open at the same time to multiple narratives. I’ve forecast $135,000 +/-$15,000 for BTC in 2025. But, as a Bayesian, I still assign the possibility that BTC is constructing a massive top for a 50%+ decline. Do I hedge my bets based on Bayesian priors – of course I do. Being aware of risks comes from being a 50-year career trader.”

「前言：我在這裡所說的話會讓你們這些單一敘事教條投資者完全困惑。我是貝葉斯主義者，同時對多種敘述持開放態度。我預測 2025 年 BTC 的價格將達到 135,000 美元 +/-15,000 美元。我是否會根據貝葉斯先驗對沖我的賭注——當然會。對風險的認識來自於作為一名 50 年的職業交易員。

According to Brandt’s analysis, if Bitcoin completes the bearish head-and-shoulders (H&S) pattern on the daily chart, the crypto might plummet. A head-and-shoulders pattern usually indicates that an asset is losing momentum and could reverse its uptrend if the price breaks below the structure’s support.

根據布蘭特的分析，如果比特幣在日線圖上完成看跌的頭肩（H＆S）模式，那麼加密貨幣可能會暴跌。頭肩形態通常表示資產正在失去動力，如果價格跌破該結構的支撐位，則可能會逆轉其上升趨勢。

On the other hand, Brandt also says that BTC appears to be flashing a bullish price pattern, using the terms bump, hump, slump and dump. The pattern, which was also seen last year before BTC surged from $50,000 to above $100,000, suggests that BTC may “dump” to around $84,000 before recovering and moving up toward $150,000.

另一方面，布蘭特也表示，比特幣似乎正在呈現看漲的價格模式，使用了「bump」、「hump」、「slump」和「dump」等術語。這種模式在去年 BTC 從 50,000 美元飆升至 100,000 美元以上之前也出現過，表明 BTC 可能會「暴跌」至 84,000 美元左右，然後反彈並上漲至 150,000 美元。

“The big question in my mind is whether Bitcoin will get one more dump (or more lengthy congestive chop) before the pump. Remember, markets generally do not [soar] until retail traders get worn out.”

「我心中最大的問題是，比特幣在上漲之前是否會再遭受一次拋售（或更長時間的充血性打擊）。請記住，在散戶交易者疲憊不堪之前，市場通常不會 [飆升]。

Bitcoin is trading at $100,029 at the time of writing.

截至撰寫本文時，比特幣交易價格為 100,029 美元。

Brandt then discusses Ethereum (ETH) competitor Cardano (ADA), sharing his analysis on the weekly chart, which shows ADA bottoming out at $0.81 and gearing up for a massive breakout that will flip $1.09 into support.

Brandt 隨後討論了以太坊(ETH) 的競爭對手卡爾達諾(ADA)，並分享了他對週線圖的分析，該圖表顯示ADA 觸底於0.81 美元，並準備大幅突破，最終將1.09 美元轉為支撐位。

“Altseason? Make no doubt about it, Cardano has bottomed for a grand bull market.”

「另類季節？毫無疑問，卡爾達諾已經觸底，迎來了大牛市。

ADA is trading at $1.09 at the time of writing, up 4.9% in the last 24 hours.

截至撰寫本文時，ADA 的交易價格為 1.09 美元，在過去 24 小時內上漲了 4.9%。