传奇交易员 Peter Brandt 表示，比特币 (BTC) 今年可能会达到 15 万美元

传奇交易员 Peter Brandt 表示，比特币 (BTC) 今年可能会达到 15 万美元，但不排除可能出现看跌的情况。

Veteran trader Peter Brandt believes that Bitcoin (BTC) may hit $150,000 this year, but he also warns of a possible bearish scenario where the flagship crypto might plummet by more than 50%.

资深交易员 Peter Brandt 认为，比特币 (BTC) 今年可能会达到 15 万美元，但他也警告可能出现看跌情景，即旗舰加密货币可能暴跌 50% 以上。

Brandt shared his thoughts with his 773,500 followers on the social media platform X, discussing his BTC price analysis and hedging his bets based on Bayesian priors.

Brandt 在社交媒体平台 X 上与他的 773,500 名粉丝分享了他的想法，讨论了他的 BTC 价格分析，并根据贝叶斯先验对冲了他的赌注。

“Preface: what I am saying here will completely confuse those of you who are single narrative dogmatic investors. I am a Bayesian, open at the same time to multiple narratives. I’ve forecast $135,000 +/-$15,000 for BTC in 2025. But, as a Bayesian, I still assign the possibility that BTC is constructing a massive top for a 50%+ decline. Do I hedge my bets based on Bayesian priors – of course I do. Being aware of risks comes from being a 50-year career trader.”

“前言：我在这里所说的会让你们这些单一叙事教条投资者完全困惑。我是贝叶斯主义者，同时对多种叙述持开放态度。我预测 2025 年 BTC 的价格将达到 135,000 美元 +/-15,000 美元。但是，作为一名贝叶斯主义者，我仍然认为 BTC 正在构建一个巨大顶部，跌幅超过 50%。我是否会根据贝叶斯先验对冲我的赌注——当然会。对风险的认识来自于作为一名 50 年的职业交易员。”

According to Brandt’s analysis, if Bitcoin completes the bearish head-and-shoulders (H&S) pattern on the daily chart, the crypto might plummet. A head-and-shoulders pattern usually indicates that an asset is losing momentum and could reverse its uptrend if the price breaks below the structure’s support.

根据布兰特的分析，如果比特币在日线图上完成看跌的头肩（H＆S）模式，那么加密货币可能会暴跌。头肩形态通常表明资产正在失去动力，如果价格跌破该结构的支撑位，则可能会逆转其上升趋势。

On the other hand, Brandt also says that BTC appears to be flashing a bullish price pattern, using the terms bump, hump, slump and dump. The pattern, which was also seen last year before BTC surged from $50,000 to above $100,000, suggests that BTC may “dump” to around $84,000 before recovering and moving up toward $150,000.

另一方面，布兰特还表示，比特币似乎正在呈现看涨的价格模式，使用了“bump”、“hump”、“slump”和“dump”等术语。这种模式在去年 BTC 从 50,000 美元飙升至 100,000 美元以上之前也出现过，表明 BTC 可能会“暴跌”至 84,000 美元左右，然后反弹并上涨至 150,000 美元。

“The big question in my mind is whether Bitcoin will get one more dump (or more lengthy congestive chop) before the pump. Remember, markets generally do not [soar] until retail traders get worn out.”

“我心中最大的问题是，比特币在上涨之前是否会再遭受一次抛售（或更长时间的充血性打击）。请记住，在散户交易者疲惫不堪之前，市场通常不会[飙升]。”

Bitcoin is trading at $100,029 at the time of writing.

截至撰写本文时，比特币交易价格为 100,029 美元。

Brandt then discusses Ethereum (ETH) competitor Cardano (ADA), sharing his analysis on the weekly chart, which shows ADA bottoming out at $0.81 and gearing up for a massive breakout that will flip $1.09 into support.

Brandt 随后讨论了以太坊 (ETH) 的竞争对手卡尔达诺 (ADA)，并分享了他对周线图的分析，该图表显示 ADA 触底于 0.81 美元，并准备大幅突破，最终将 1.09 美元转为支撑位。

“Altseason? Make no doubt about it, Cardano has bottomed for a grand bull market.”

“另类季节？毫无疑问，卡尔达诺已经触底，迎来了大牛市。”

ADA is trading at $1.09 at the time of writing, up 4.9% in the last 24 hours.

截至撰写本文时，ADA 的交易价格为 1.09 美元，在过去 24 小时内上涨了 4.9%。