Veteran trader Peter Brandt believes that Bitcoin (BTC) may hit $150,000 this year, but he also warns of a possible bearish scenario where the flagship crypto might plummet by more than 50%.
Brandt shared his thoughts with his 773,500 followers on the social media platform X, discussing his BTC price analysis and hedging his bets based on Bayesian priors.
“Preface: what I am saying here will completely confuse those of you who are single narrative dogmatic investors. I am a Bayesian, open at the same time to multiple narratives. I’ve forecast $135,000 +/-$15,000 for BTC in 2025. But, as a Bayesian, I still assign the possibility that BTC is constructing a massive top for a 50%+ decline. Do I hedge my bets based on Bayesian priors – of course I do. Being aware of risks comes from being a 50-year career trader.”
According to Brandt’s analysis, if Bitcoin completes the bearish head-and-shoulders (H&S) pattern on the daily chart, the crypto might plummet. A head-and-shoulders pattern usually indicates that an asset is losing momentum and could reverse its uptrend if the price breaks below the structure’s support.
On the other hand, Brandt also says that BTC appears to be flashing a bullish price pattern, using the terms bump, hump, slump and dump. The pattern, which was also seen last year before BTC surged from $50,000 to above $100,000, suggests that BTC may “dump” to around $84,000 before recovering and moving up toward $150,000.
“The big question in my mind is whether Bitcoin will get one more dump (or more lengthy congestive chop) before the pump. Remember, markets generally do not [soar] until retail traders get worn out.”
Bitcoin is trading at $100,029 at the time of writing.
Brandt then discusses Ethereum (ETH) competitor Cardano (ADA), sharing his analysis on the weekly chart, which shows ADA bottoming out at $0.81 and gearing up for a massive breakout that will flip $1.09 into support.
“Altseason? Make no doubt about it, Cardano has bottomed for a grand bull market.”
ADA is trading at $1.09 at the time of writing, up 4.9% in the last 24 hours.
