美國最大的三家銀行對黃金的持續向上勢頭樂觀

邁克爾·威德默（Michael Widmer）

Three of the largest U.S. banks are optimistic about gold's continued upward momentum, with some projecting substantial gains for the precious metal.

美國最大的三家銀行對黃金的持續向上勢頭非常樂觀，其中一些貴金屬的預測會取得可觀的收益。

Bank of America's head of metals research, Michael Widmer, suggests that while gold could experience a temporary pullback after hitting a record of over $3,085 per ounce, his long-term forecast sees it reaching $3,500. He attributes part of his bullish outlook to China's recent decision allowing insurance companies to invest in gold, which could lead to the accumulation of an additional 300 tons of gold.

美國銀行金屬研究負責人邁克爾·威德默（Michael Widmer）建議，儘管黃金在達到每盎司超過3,085美元的紀錄後可能會暫時回調，但他的長期預測看到它達到了3,500美元。他將看漲前景的一部分歸因於中國最近的決定，使保險公司能夠投資黃金，這可能導致增加300噸黃金。

"Our bullish view is shared by several but not all. We had the all-time high in mid-March at $3,085. I think we'll get a minor pullback from here. But in the longer term, we're looking at $3,500 for gold.

“我們看漲的看法是由幾個但不是全部的。在3月中旬的歷史最高水平為3,085美元。我認為我們會從這裡獲得一個小的回調。但是從長遠來看，我們要尋找3500美元的黃金。

"We're expecting a weaker dollar and lower U.S. rates in 2024. We also had the news that China is opening up to insurance companies to invest in gold, which could add another 300 tons of demand over the next two to three years. This is a huge development that no one is talking about enough. Everyone focuses on the fact that China had net selling in the fourth quarter, but people aren't thinking about the bigger picture here, which is that China is still a big buyer of gold. They've been accumulating for years, and they're likely to continue doing so. So, we're expecting this tailwind for gold prices to continue."

"We're expecting a weaker dollar and lower US rates in 2024. We also had the news that China is opening up to insurance companies to invest in gold, which could add another 300 tons of demand over the next two to three years. This is a huge development that no one is talking about enough. Everyone focuses on the fact that China had net selling in the fourth quarter, but people aren't thinking about the bigger picture here, which is that China is still a big buyer of gold. They've been accumulating for years, and他們可能會繼續這樣做。

Similarly, Citi's Max Layton believes gold could climb to $3,500 if the U.S. economy deteriorates further. In the near term, Layton expects gold to reach around $3,200 per ounce but sees further upside if economic conditions worsen.

同樣，花旗的馬克斯·萊頓（Max Layton）認為，如果美國經濟進一步惡化，黃金可能會攀升至3500美元。在短期內，萊頓預計黃金將達到每盎司3,200美元左右，但如果經濟狀況惡化，黃金會進一步上升。

"If the U.S. economic performance deteriorates, we could see gold heading towards $3,500 an ounce, driven by a weaker dollar and lower U.S. interest rates. For now, our year-end price target is $3,200, and we're expecting the metal to hit new all-time highs in the second half of the year. But if the economic backdrop deteriorates more quickly than we anticipate, we may need to revise our forecasts upwards sooner rather than later."

如果美國的經濟表現惡化，我們可以看到黃金朝著每盎司3500美元的價格，這是由於美元較弱和降低美國利率的驅動。目前，我們的年終價格目標是3,200美元，我們希望金屬能夠在一年中的下半年降低新歷史高峰，但是如果經濟背景會比我們更快地降低了我們的速度。

Furthermore, Goldman Sachs analysts predict that gold could exceed $3,100, citing U.S. policy uncertainty and ongoing central bank demand for the metal.

此外，高盛分析師預測，黃金將超過3,100美元，理由是美國政策不確定性和持續的中央銀行對金屬的需求。

However, while these banks are confident in gold's prospects, other institutions like JPMorgan and UBS are bearish on the U.S. stock market. JPMorgan analysts warn that the S&P 500 could face further corrections if high interest rates trigger an economic downturn.

但是，儘管這些銀行對黃金的前景充滿信心，但摩根大通和瑞銀等其他機構在美國股票市場上也是看跌。摩根大通（JPMorgan）分析師警告說，如果高利率觸發經濟衰退，標準普爾500指數可能會面臨進一步的糾正。

"If the Fed manages to induce a mild recession, we expect the S&P 500 to fall to 4,000 by mid-2024, leading to a total correction of 15% from the all-time high. However, if the downturn is more severe than anticipated, we might see the S&P 500 sliding further to 3,500, resulting in a 25% correction from the peak."

“如果美聯儲設法誘發溫和的衰退，我們預計到2024年中標準普爾500指數將下降到4,000個，導致從歷史最高高點的總校正15％。但是，如果下滑比預期的要嚴重得多，我們可能會看到S＆P 500越來越多，從峰值到3,500，從峰值劃分到25％。”

Discussing the outlook for the U.S. stock market, Bhanu Baweja, an analyst at UBS, predicts a significant drop in the S&P 500, with concerns about weakening consumer confidence and a potential slowdown in U.S. economic activity.

瑞銀（UBS）分析師Bhanu Baweja討論了美國股票市場的前景，預測標準普爾500指數的大幅下降，擔心消費者的信心削弱和潛在的美國經濟活動放緩。

"We're expecting the S&P 500 to decline to 4,000 by year-end, with the main risk being a steeper decline to 3,600 if consumer confidence deteriorates more sharply than anticipated. We're also keeping an eye on the potential for a slowdown in U.S. economic activity, which could put further downward pressure on the market."

“我們預計，當消費者的信心降低比預期的急劇急劇下降的話，標準普爾500指數將在年底時下降到4,000個，主要風險下降到3600。

Despite the positive outlook for gold, some market observers remain cautious, as geopolitical tensions, inflationary pressures, and global trade uncertainties continue to create a volatile environment.

儘管對黃金有積極的看法，但由於地緣政治緊張局勢，通貨膨脹壓力和全球貿易不確定性繼續創造了動蕩的環境，一些市場觀察者仍然謹慎。

While gold has traditionally been seen as a safe-haven asset during times of economic instability, investors are balancing their portfolios carefully, considering both the potential for higher gold prices and the risks posed by global economic conditions. This careful balance may shape market behavior in the coming months, particularly if U.S. economic performance falters.

儘管在經濟不穩定時期，傳統上，黃金被視為避風港資產，但投資者正在仔細地平衡其投資組合，考慮到較高的黃金價格的潛力以及全球經濟狀況帶來的風險。這種謹慎的平衡可能會在未來幾個月內塑造市場行為，尤其是如果美國的經濟表現會動搖。