美国最大的三家银行对黄金的持续向上势头乐观

迈克尔·威德默（Michael Widmer）

Three of the largest U.S. banks are optimistic about gold's continued upward momentum, with some projecting substantial gains for the precious metal.

美国最大的三家银行对黄金的持续向上势头非常乐观，其中一些贵金属的预测会取得可观的收益。

Bank of America's head of metals research, Michael Widmer, suggests that while gold could experience a temporary pullback after hitting a record of over $3,085 per ounce, his long-term forecast sees it reaching $3,500. He attributes part of his bullish outlook to China's recent decision allowing insurance companies to invest in gold, which could lead to the accumulation of an additional 300 tons of gold.

美国银行金属研究负责人迈克尔·威德默（Michael Widmer）建议，尽管黄金在达到每盎司超过3,085美元的纪录后可能会暂时回调，但他的长期预测看到它达到了3,500美元。他将看涨前景的一部分归因于中国最近的决定，使保险公司能够投资黄金，这可能导致增加300吨黄金。

"Our bullish view is shared by several but not all. We had the all-time high in mid-March at $3,085. I think we'll get a minor pullback from here. But in the longer term, we're looking at $3,500 for gold.

“我们看涨的看法是由几个但不是全部的。在3月中旬的历史最高水平为3,085美元。我认为我们会从这里获得一个小的回调。但是从长远来看，我们要寻找3500美元的黄金。

"We're expecting a weaker dollar and lower U.S. rates in 2024. We also had the news that China is opening up to insurance companies to invest in gold, which could add another 300 tons of demand over the next two to three years. This is a huge development that no one is talking about enough. Everyone focuses on the fact that China had net selling in the fourth quarter, but people aren't thinking about the bigger picture here, which is that China is still a big buyer of gold. They've been accumulating for years, and they're likely to continue doing so. So, we're expecting this tailwind for gold prices to continue."

"We're expecting a weaker dollar and lower US rates in 2024. We also had the news that China is opening up to insurance companies to invest in gold, which could add another 300 tons of demand over the next two to three years. This is a huge development that no one is talking about enough. Everyone focuses on the fact that China had net selling in the fourth quarter, but people aren't thinking about the bigger picture here, which is that China is still a big buyer of gold. They've been accumulating for years, and他们可能会继续这样做。

Similarly, Citi's Max Layton believes gold could climb to $3,500 if the U.S. economy deteriorates further. In the near term, Layton expects gold to reach around $3,200 per ounce but sees further upside if economic conditions worsen.

同样，花旗的马克斯·莱顿（Max Layton）认为，如果美国经济进一步恶化，黄金可能会攀升至3500美元。在短期内，莱顿预计黄金将达到每盎司3,200美元左右，但如果经济状况恶化，黄金会进一步上升。

"If the U.S. economic performance deteriorates, we could see gold heading towards $3,500 an ounce, driven by a weaker dollar and lower U.S. interest rates. For now, our year-end price target is $3,200, and we're expecting the metal to hit new all-time highs in the second half of the year. But if the economic backdrop deteriorates more quickly than we anticipate, we may need to revise our forecasts upwards sooner rather than later."

如果美国的经济表现恶化，我们可以看到黄金朝着每盎司3500美元的价格，这是由于美元较弱和降低美国利率的驱动。目前，我们的年终价格目标是3,200美元，我们希望金属能够在一年中的下半年降低新历史高峰，但是如果经济背景会比我们更快地降低了我们的速度。

Furthermore, Goldman Sachs analysts predict that gold could exceed $3,100, citing U.S. policy uncertainty and ongoing central bank demand for the metal.

此外，高盛分析师预测，黄金将超过3,100美元，理由是美国政策不确定性和持续的中央银行对金属的需求。

However, while these banks are confident in gold's prospects, other institutions like JPMorgan and UBS are bearish on the U.S. stock market. JPMorgan analysts warn that the S&P 500 could face further corrections if high interest rates trigger an economic downturn.

但是，尽管这些银行对黄金的前景充满信心，但摩根大通和瑞银等其他机构在美国股票市场上也是看跌。摩根大通（JPMorgan）分析师警告说，如果高利率触发经济衰退，标准普尔500指数可能会面临进一步的纠正。

"If the Fed manages to induce a mild recession, we expect the S&P 500 to fall to 4,000 by mid-2024, leading to a total correction of 15% from the all-time high. However, if the downturn is more severe than anticipated, we might see the S&P 500 sliding further to 3,500, resulting in a 25% correction from the peak."

“如果美联储设法诱发温和的衰退，我们预计到2024年中标准普尔500指数将下降到4,000个，导致从历史最高高点的总校正15％。但是，如果下滑比预期的要严重得多，我们可能会看到S＆P 500越来越多，从峰值到3,500，从峰值划分到25％。”

Discussing the outlook for the U.S. stock market, Bhanu Baweja, an analyst at UBS, predicts a significant drop in the S&P 500, with concerns about weakening consumer confidence and a potential slowdown in U.S. economic activity.

瑞银（UBS）分析师Bhanu Baweja讨论了美国股票市场的前景，预测标准普尔500指数的大幅下降，担心消费者的信心削弱和潜在的美国经济活动放缓。

"We're expecting the S&P 500 to decline to 4,000 by year-end, with the main risk being a steeper decline to 3,600 if consumer confidence deteriorates more sharply than anticipated. We're also keeping an eye on the potential for a slowdown in U.S. economic activity, which could put further downward pressure on the market."

“我们预计，当消费者的信心降低比预期的急剧急剧下降的话，标准普尔500指数将在年底时下降到4,000个，主要风险下降到3600。

Despite the positive outlook for gold, some market observers remain cautious, as geopolitical tensions, inflationary pressures, and global trade uncertainties continue to create a volatile environment.

尽管对黄金有积极的看法，但由于地缘政治紧张局势，通货膨胀压力和全球贸易不确定性继续创造了动荡的环境，一些市场观察者仍然谨慎。

While gold has traditionally been seen as a safe-haven asset during times of economic instability, investors are balancing their portfolios carefully, considering both the potential for higher gold prices and the risks posed by global economic conditions. This careful balance may shape market behavior in the coming months, particularly if U.S. economic performance falters.

尽管在经济不稳定时期，传统上，黄金被视为避风港资产，但投资者正在仔细地平衡其投资组合，考虑到较高的黄金价格的潜力以及全球经济状况带来的风险。这种谨慎的平衡可能会在未来几个月内塑造市场行为，尤其是如果美国的经济表现会动摇。