當正義解決長期存在的衝突時，市場就不會等待得出結論

因此，Ripple和SEC之間的決鬥結束超出了司法框架：它重塑了XRP的未來

The dust has settled on the long-running legal battle between the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and Ripple, leaving behind a scenario where the regulatory uncertainty has been cleared, but the market response seems minimal.

塵埃已經定居在證券與交易委員會（SEC）和波紋之間的長期法律鬥爭中，留下了一種消除了監管不確定性的情況，但市場反應似乎很少。

As the predictive markets are now placing bets on the arrival of an XRP ETF, the spotlight falls on how this new chapter might unfold.

由於預測市場現在在XRP ETF的到來時押注，因此，聚光燈落在了新章節的發展方式上。

SEC lets go, Ripple emerges strengthened

SEC放手，波紋升高了

On March 19, 2025, the founders of the famous predictive market Polymarket announced in a post on X (formerly Twitter) that the SEC had dropped its appeal against Ripple, marking the definitive conclusion of the trial that began in December 2020.

2025年3月19日，著名的預測市場多聚市場的創始人在X（以前是Twitter）的一篇文章中宣布，SEC已對Ripple的上訴放棄了上訴，這標誌著2020年12月開始的審判的明確結論。

This decision by the American stock market regulator comes after more than four years of legal battle, during which the SEC accused Ripple of raising $1.3 billion through XRP sales considered as unregistered securities offerings.

美國股票市場監管機構的這一決定是在經過四年多的法律鬥爭之後進行的，在此期間，SEC被指控Ripple通過被視為未註冊證券產品的XRP銷售籌集了13億美元。

Despite the historical significance of this outcome for the crypto industry, the market reacted only very moderately. XRP recorded only a 5% increase in the days following the announcement, moving from $2.32 to $2.44 according to CoinGecko.

儘管這種結果對加密行業具有歷史意義，但市場的反應僅是非常適度的。根據Coingecko的數據，XRP在宣布後的幾天僅記錄了5％，從2.32美元提高到2.44美元。

This relative inertia is explained, according to Nicolai Sondergaard, an analyst at Nansen, by the fact that “the resolution of the conflict was largely anticipated.” Several factors indeed suggest that this news was already “priced in” by the markets:

Nansen的分析師Nicolai Sondergaard表示，這是“衝突的決心是在很大程度上被預期的”，對這一親戚的慣性解釋了。確實有幾個因素表明，該消息已經被市場“定價”：

Thus, while the SEC’s withdrawal ends a judicial sequence with significant consequences, it has not been enough to create a strong impulse in the crypto market. Attention is now turning to the longer-term implications of this resolution, as highlighted by the limited impact of the end of the Ripple trial.

因此，儘管SEC的撤回結束了司法序列，並帶來了重大後果，但它還不足以在加密市場中產生強烈的衝動。現在，注意這一決議的長期含義，這是由於Ripple試驗結束的有限影響所強調的。

The hypothesis of an XRP ETF is settling in minds

XRP ETF的假設正在考慮

Following the SEC’s withdrawal of the appeal, Nate Geraci, president of ETF Store, stated on March 26, 2025, on platform X (formerly Twitter) that it was “clear that an XRP ETF will eventually be approved by the SEC.” He believes that it is now just a “matter of time.”

SEC撤回上訴後，ETF商店總裁Nate Geraci在2025年3月26日在X平台（以前是Twitter）上表示，“很明顯，XRP ETF最終將獲得SEC的批准。”他認為這只是“時間問題”。

This position, coming from a recognized player in the index fund world, has reinforced the legitimacy of a scenario previously perceived as speculative. Geraci also mentioned the possibility of major asset managers like BlackRock or Fidelity positioning themselves on this future product and suggested a potential large-scale institutional alignment.

這個職位來自指數基金世界中公認的球員，這加強了以前被認為是投機性的場景的合法性。 Geraci還提到了像BlackRock或Fidelity這樣的主要資產經理在未來產品上定位自己的可能性，並提出了潛在的大規模機構一致性。

At the same time, Polymarket users have significantly raised their expectations. According to current data, the probability of an XRP ETF approval by the end of 2025 stands at 85%, whereas they only see a 42% chance of it being validated before July 31, reflecting the evolution of expectations on Polymarket.

同時，多聚類用戶大大提高了他們的期望。根據當前的數據，到2025年底之前獲得XRP ETF批准的可能性為85％，而他們僅在7月31日之前就看到了42％的機會，這反映了對PolyMarket的期望的演變。

This measured but growing confidence reflects an optimistic reading of the regulatory dynamics post-trial while considering the usual delays in the SEC’s approval processes.

這一測量但增強的置信度反映了審判後對監管動態的樂觀閱讀，同時考慮了SEC批准過程中通常的延誤。

Such a development fuels new speculation about XRP’s positioning within the institutional crypto ecosystem. The approval of an ETF could pave the way for broader access for traditional investors and further legitimize the asset in a U.S. context still largely hostile to altcoins. If this trend is confirmed, it might redefine the architecture of the crypto market in the coming months, as shown by the SEC’s postponement of the ETF XRP decision.

這樣的發展為XRP在機構加密生態系統中的定位提供了新的猜測。 ETF的批准可以為傳統投資者提供更廣泛的訪問鋪平道路，並在美國環境中進一步使資產合法化，這仍然在很大程度上是敵對的。如果確認這種趨勢，它可能會在未來幾個月內重新定義加密市場的體系結構，如SEC推遲ETF XRP決定所示。