当正义解决长期存在的冲突时，市场就不会等待得出结论

因此，Ripple和SEC之间的决斗结束超出了司法框架：它重塑了XRP的未来

The dust has settled on the long-running legal battle between the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and Ripple, leaving behind a scenario where the regulatory uncertainty has been cleared, but the market response seems minimal.

尘埃已经定居在证券与交易委员会（SEC）和波纹之间的长期法律斗争中，留下了一种消除了监管不确定性的情况，但市场反应似乎很少。

As the predictive markets are now placing bets on the arrival of an XRP ETF, the spotlight falls on how this new chapter might unfold.

由于预测市场现在在XRP ETF的到来时押注，因此，聚光灯落在了新章节的发展方式上。

SEC lets go, Ripple emerges strengthened

SEC放手，波纹升高了

On March 19, 2025, the founders of the famous predictive market Polymarket announced in a post on X (formerly Twitter) that the SEC had dropped its appeal against Ripple, marking the definitive conclusion of the trial that began in December 2020.

2025年3月19日，著名的预测市场多聚市场的创始人在X（以前是Twitter）的一篇文章中宣布，SEC已对Ripple的上诉放弃了上诉，这标志着2020年12月开始的审判的明确结论。

This decision by the American stock market regulator comes after more than four years of legal battle, during which the SEC accused Ripple of raising $1.3 billion through XRP sales considered as unregistered securities offerings.

美国股票市场监管机构的这一决定是在经过四年多的法律斗争之后进行的，在此期间，SEC被指控Ripple通过被视为未注册证券产品的XRP销售筹集了13亿美元。

Despite the historical significance of this outcome for the crypto industry, the market reacted only very moderately. XRP recorded only a 5% increase in the days following the announcement, moving from $2.32 to $2.44 according to CoinGecko.

尽管这种结果对加密行业具有历史意义，但市场的反应仅是非常适度的。根据Coingecko的数据，XRP在宣布后的几天仅记录了5％，从2.32美元提高到2.44美元。

This relative inertia is explained, according to Nicolai Sondergaard, an analyst at Nansen, by the fact that “the resolution of the conflict was largely anticipated.” Several factors indeed suggest that this news was already “priced in” by the markets:

Nansen的分析师Nicolai Sondergaard表示，这是“冲突的决心是在很大程度上被预期的”，对这一亲戚的惯性解释了。确实有几个因素表明，该消息已经被市场“定价”：

Thus, while the SEC’s withdrawal ends a judicial sequence with significant consequences, it has not been enough to create a strong impulse in the crypto market. Attention is now turning to the longer-term implications of this resolution, as highlighted by the limited impact of the end of the Ripple trial.

因此，尽管SEC的撤回结束了司法序列，并带来了重大后果，但它还不足以在加密市场中产生强烈的冲动。现在，注意这一决议的长期含义，这是由于Ripple试验结束的有限影响所强调的。

The hypothesis of an XRP ETF is settling in minds

XRP ETF的假设正在考虑

Following the SEC’s withdrawal of the appeal, Nate Geraci, president of ETF Store, stated on March 26, 2025, on platform X (formerly Twitter) that it was “clear that an XRP ETF will eventually be approved by the SEC.” He believes that it is now just a “matter of time.”

SEC撤回上诉后，ETF商店总裁Nate Geraci在2025年3月26日在X平台（以前是Twitter）上表示，“很明显，XRP ETF最终将获得SEC的批准。”他认为这只是“时间问题”。

This position, coming from a recognized player in the index fund world, has reinforced the legitimacy of a scenario previously perceived as speculative. Geraci also mentioned the possibility of major asset managers like BlackRock or Fidelity positioning themselves on this future product and suggested a potential large-scale institutional alignment.

这个职位来自指数基金世界中公认的球员，这加强了以前被认为是投机性的场景的合法性。 Geraci还提到了像BlackRock或Fidelity这样的主要资产经理在未来产品上定位自己的可能性，并提出了潜在的大规模机构一致性。

At the same time, Polymarket users have significantly raised their expectations. According to current data, the probability of an XRP ETF approval by the end of 2025 stands at 85%, whereas they only see a 42% chance of it being validated before July 31, reflecting the evolution of expectations on Polymarket.

同时，多聚类用户大大提高了他们的期望。根据当前的数据，到2025年底之前获得XRP ETF批准的可能性为85％，而他们仅在7月31日之前就看到了42％的机会，这反映了对PolyMarket的期望的演变。

This measured but growing confidence reflects an optimistic reading of the regulatory dynamics post-trial while considering the usual delays in the SEC’s approval processes.

这一测量但增强的置信度反映了审判后对监管动态的乐观阅读，同时考虑了SEC批准过程中通常的延误。

Such a development fuels new speculation about XRP’s positioning within the institutional crypto ecosystem. The approval of an ETF could pave the way for broader access for traditional investors and further legitimize the asset in a U.S. context still largely hostile to altcoins. If this trend is confirmed, it might redefine the architecture of the crypto market in the coming months, as shown by the SEC’s postponement of the ETF XRP decision.

这样的发展为XRP在机构加密生态系统中的定位提供了新的猜测。 ETF的批准可以为传统投资者提供更广泛的访问铺平道路，并在美国环境中进一步使资产合法化，这仍然在很大程度上是敌对的。如果确认这种趋势，它可能会在未来几个月内重新定义加密市场的体系结构，如SEC推迟ETF XRP决定所示。