美國通貨膨脹報告2025年2月

美國市場急切地等待2025年的第二次通貨膨脹報告。該報告計劃於今天發布。

The US market is eagerly awaiting the second inflation report of 2025, which is scheduled to be released today, March 8. According to analysts polled by Bloomberg, the consensus predicts a slight drop in both headline and core inflation. If confirmed, this would be the first time since July 2024 that both inflation indicators have declined.

美國市場急切地等待2025年的第二次通貨膨脹報告，該報告計劃於3月8日發布。據彭博社報導，該分析師預測，標題和核心通貨膨脹率都會略有下降。如果得到確認，這將是自2024年7月以來這兩個通貨膨脹指標都下降的第一次。

In January 2025, the core inflation rate rose from 3.2% to 3.3%. The consensus anticipates that the rate will drop from 3.3% to 3.2%. According to TEForecast, the rate is expected to decline sharply from 3.3% to 3.1%.

2025年1月，核心通貨膨脹率從3.2％上升到3.3％。共識預計該利率將從3.3％降至3.2％。根據Teforecast的數據，預計該速率將從3.3％急劇下降到3.1％。

The table below provides a summary of the January and February predictions for both headline and core inflation:

下表提供了對標題和核心通貨膨脹的一月和二月預測的摘要：

| Month | Headline Inflation (CPI y/y%) | Core Inflation (CPI y/y%) |

|月|標題通貨膨脹（CPI y/y％）|核心通貨膨脹（CPI y/y％）|

|---|---|---|

| --- | --- | --- |

| January (Actual) | 2.9% | 3.2% |

|一月（實際）| 2.9％| 3.2％|

| February (Consensus) | 2.9% | 3.2% |

| 2月（共識）| 2.9％| 3.2％|

| February (TEForecast) | 3%

| 2月（Teforecast）| 3％

.0000000000000004% | 3.1% |

.0000000000000004％| 3.1％|

As the chart above shows, in July 2024, the core inflation rate fell from 3.3% to 3.2%, and the US inflation rate dropped from 3% to 2.9%.

如上圖所示，2024年7月，核心通脹率從3.3％下降到3.2％，美國通貨膨脹率從3％下降到2.9％。

Since September 2024, the US inflation rate has risen consistently. Meanwhile, the core inflation rate increased from 3.2% to 3.3% in September. It remained at the same level for the next two months. In December, it dropped to 3.2% from 3.3%.

自2024年9月以來，美國通貨膨脹率一直在上升。同時，核心通貨膨脹率從9月的3.2％增加到3.3％。在接下來的兩個月中，它保持在同一水平。 12月，它從3.3％降至3.2％。

Kalshi traders are extremely optimistic that inflation will decrease. Their predictions indicate a decrease in headline CPI from 3% to 2.9%. Notably, Kalshi traders have accurately predicted at least 6 of the last 8 CPI numbers.

卡爾西交易者非常樂觀，認為通貨膨脹將減少。他們的預測表明，標題CPI從3％下降到2.9％。值得注意的是，Kalshi交易者已經準確地預測了最近8個CPI數字中的至少6個。

President Donald Trump recently imposed import tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico. His aggressive trade policies have triggered retaliatory tariffs and pushed the global economy to the brink of a disastrous trade war.

唐納德·特朗普總統最近對中國，加拿大和墨西哥徵收進口關稅。他積極的貿易政策引發了報復性關稅，並將全球經濟推向了災難性的貿易戰邊緣。

Today’s inflation report will be the first to reflect inflation under Trump’s tough trade policies.

當今的通貨膨脹報告將是第一個反映特朗普艱難貿易政策下的通貨膨脹的報告。

If inflation declines as predicted, it could impact the cryptocurrency market in multiple ways. A cooling inflation rate increases the likelihood of the Federal Reserve easing monetary policy, potentially leading to lower interest rates. This scenario could create a more favorable environment for risk assets like cryptos, ultimately driving investor confidence.

如果通貨膨脹按預期下降，則可能以多種方式影響加密貨幣市場。冷卻通貨膨脹率增加了美聯儲緩解貨幣政策的可能性，這可能導致利率降低。這種情況可能會為諸如加密貨幣之類的風險資產創造一個更有利的環境，最終使投資者信心。

However, the potential fallout from Trump’s trade policies might trigger volatility in the market. As global economic instability intensifies, investors usually prefer safe-haven assets like gold. If inflation remains stubbornly high despite the expectations, the Fed may maintain tight monetary policies, placing pressure on the broader financial and crypto markets.

但是，特朗普的貿易政策的潛在影響可能會引發市場上的波動。隨著全球經濟不穩定的加劇，投資者通常更喜歡諸如黃金之類的安全資產。如果達到預期，通貨膨脹率仍然很高，美聯儲可能會維持嚴格的貨幣政策，對更廣泛的金融和加密貨幣市場施加壓力。