美国通货膨胀报告2025年2月

美国市场急切地等待2025年的第二次通货膨胀报告。该报告计划于今天发布。

The US market is eagerly awaiting the second inflation report of 2025, which is scheduled to be released today, March 8. According to analysts polled by Bloomberg, the consensus predicts a slight drop in both headline and core inflation. If confirmed, this would be the first time since July 2024 that both inflation indicators have declined.

美国市场急切地等待2025年的第二次通货膨胀报告，该报告计划于3月8日发布。据彭博社报道，该分析师预测，标题和核心通货膨胀率都会略有下降。如果得到确认，这将是自2024年7月以来这两个通货膨胀指标都下降的第一次。

In January 2025, the core inflation rate rose from 3.2% to 3.3%. The consensus anticipates that the rate will drop from 3.3% to 3.2%. According to TEForecast, the rate is expected to decline sharply from 3.3% to 3.1%.

2025年1月，核心通货膨胀率从3.2％上升到3.3％。共识预计该利率将从3.3％降至3.2％。根据Teforecast的数据，预计该速率将从3.3％急剧下降到3.1％。

The table below provides a summary of the January and February predictions for both headline and core inflation:

下表提供了对标题和核心通货膨胀的一月和二月预测的摘要：

| Month | Headline Inflation (CPI y/y%) | Core Inflation (CPI y/y%) |

|月|标题通货膨胀（CPI y/y％）|核心通货膨胀（CPI y/y％）|

|---|---|---|

| --- | --- | --- |

| January (Actual) | 2.9% | 3.2% |

|一月（实际）| 2.9％| 3.2％|

| February (Consensus) | 2.9% | 3.2% |

| 2月（共识）| 2.9％| 3.2％|

| February (TEForecast) | 3%

| 2月（Teforecast）| 3％

.0000000000000004% | 3.1% |

.0000000000000004％| 3.1％|

As the chart above shows, in July 2024, the core inflation rate fell from 3.3% to 3.2%, and the US inflation rate dropped from 3% to 2.9%.

如上图所示，2024年7月，核心通胀率从3.3％下降到3.2％，美国通货膨胀率从3％下降到2.9％。

Since September 2024, the US inflation rate has risen consistently. Meanwhile, the core inflation rate increased from 3.2% to 3.3% in September. It remained at the same level for the next two months. In December, it dropped to 3.2% from 3.3%.

自2024年9月以来，美国通货膨胀率一直在上升。同时，核心通货膨胀率从9月的3.2％增加到3.3％。在接下来的两个月中，它保持在同一水平。 12月，它从3.3％降至3.2％。

Kalshi traders are extremely optimistic that inflation will decrease. Their predictions indicate a decrease in headline CPI from 3% to 2.9%. Notably, Kalshi traders have accurately predicted at least 6 of the last 8 CPI numbers.

卡尔西交易者非常乐观，认为通货膨胀将减少。他们的预测表明，标题CPI从3％下降到2.9％。值得注意的是，Kalshi交易者已经准确地预测了最近8个CPI数字中的至少6个。

President Donald Trump recently imposed import tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico. His aggressive trade policies have triggered retaliatory tariffs and pushed the global economy to the brink of a disastrous trade war.

唐纳德·特朗普总统最近对中国，加拿大和墨西哥征收进口关税。他积极的贸易政策引发了报复性关税，并将全球经济推向了灾难性的贸易战边缘。

Today’s inflation report will be the first to reflect inflation under Trump’s tough trade policies.

当今的通货膨胀报告将是第一个反映特朗普艰难贸易政策下的通货膨胀的报告。

If inflation declines as predicted, it could impact the cryptocurrency market in multiple ways. A cooling inflation rate increases the likelihood of the Federal Reserve easing monetary policy, potentially leading to lower interest rates. This scenario could create a more favorable environment for risk assets like cryptos, ultimately driving investor confidence.

如果通货膨胀按预期下降，则可能以多种方式影响加密货币市场。冷却通货膨胀率增加了美联储缓解货币政策的可能性，这可能导致利率降低。这种情况可能会为诸如加密货币之类的风险资产创造一个更有利的环境，最终使投资者信心。

However, the potential fallout from Trump’s trade policies might trigger volatility in the market. As global economic instability intensifies, investors usually prefer safe-haven assets like gold. If inflation remains stubbornly high despite the expectations, the Fed may maintain tight monetary policies, placing pressure on the broader financial and crypto markets.

但是，特朗普的贸易政策的潜在影响可能会引发市场上的波动。随着全球经济不稳定的加剧，投资者通常更喜欢诸如黄金之类的安全资产。如果达到预期，通货膨胀率仍然很高，美联储可能会维持严格的货币政策，对更广泛的金融和加密货币市场施加压力。