Heka 基金經理人不認為 MicroStrategy 對比特幣構成威脅，強調 BTC 所有權集中是正常現象

透過匯入傳統金融的知名策略和風險管理工具，加密市場可以產生非常好的回報。

In 2023, Protos interviewed Fabio Frontini, the fund manager of Malta-based Heka Funds. Heka is one of the biggest Tether whales, and with its Elysium Global Arbitrage Fund, it arbitrages tether (USDT) by buying and selling around its intended $1 peg.

2023年，Protos訪問了馬耳他Heka Funds的基金經理人Fabio Frontini。 Heka 是最大的 Tether 鯨魚之一，透過其 Elysium 全球套利基金，它透過圍繞其預期的 1 美元錨定匯率買賣來套利 Tether (USDT)。

We recently interviewed Frontini again, this time about the latest developments in crypto, including the effect of MicroStrategy’s (MSTR) historic acquisition spree of 447,470 bitcoins (BTC) – 2.2% of the world’s circulating supply.

我們最近再次採訪了 Frontini，這次是關於加密貨幣的最新發展，包括 MicroStrategy (MSTR) 歷史性收購 447,470 比特幣 (BTC) 的影響——佔全球流通供應量的 2.2%。

We began by asking Frontini whether he thinks MicroStrategy poses a structural risk to the BTC market.

我們首先詢問 Frontini 是否認為 MicroStrategy 對 BTC 市場構成結構性風險。

“That is a very good question!” he said. “We are trying to dig into MicroStrategy to understand if an arbitrage is possible given the MSTR shares look particularly expensive compared to the value of the underlying BTC but at the moment it is not a clear-cut trade.”

“這是一個非常好的問題！”他說。 “我們正在嘗試深入研究 MicroStrategy，以了解套利是否可能，因為與基礎 BTC 的價值相比，MSTR 股票看起來特別昂貴，但目前這還不是一個明確的交易。”

He added, “Generally speaking, their position is very significant indeed. However, in the past, we have always seen very large holders of BTC, such as GBTC, and now Fidelity or BlackRock ETFs.

他補充說：「總的來說，他們的地位確實非常重要。然而，過去我們總是看到非常大的BTC持有者，例如GBTC，現在是富達或貝萊德ETF。

“There will always be volatility if anything happens to them, but not to the extent that it would impact the ecosystem, which appears capable of withstanding significant volatility events.”

“如果它們發生任何事情，總是會出現波動，但不會影響生態系統，因為生態系統似乎能夠承受重大波動事件。”

Frontini’s response is significant for at least two reasons.

弗朗蒂尼的回應意義重大，至少有兩個原因。

Not interested in arbitraging MicroStrategy’s bitcoin premium

對套利 MicroStrategy 的比特幣溢價不感興趣

First, it’s notable that even a sophisticated capital manager able to deploy hundreds of millions of dollars into a well-practiced arbitrage trade doesn’t have confidence that MSTR shares are overvalued relative to MicroStrategy’s BTC holdings.

首先，值得注意的是，即使是一位經驗豐富的資本經理，能夠將數億美元投入到熟練的套利交易中，也不相信 MSTR 股票相對於 MicroStrategy 持有的 BTC 估值被高估。

For context, MicroStrategy currently trades at a 94% premium to its $42 billion worth of BTC holdings. The arbitrage opportunity seems obvious: shorting the $81 billion MSTR counterbalanced with a long BTC position, aiming to capture the deterioration of MicroStrategy’s exuberant 1.94X multiple over time.

就背景而言，MicroStrategy 目前的交易價格比其持有的價值 420 億美元的 BTC 溢價 94%。套利機會似乎很明顯：做空 810 億美元的 MSTR，並做多 BTC 頭寸，旨在捕捉 MicroStrategy 旺盛的 1.94 倍市盈率隨時間的惡化情況。

However, Heka Funds doesn’t seem interested in this alluring trade.

然而，Heka Funds 似乎對這種誘人的交易並不感興趣。

At a 0% yield, MicroStrategy’s $1.75bn convertible note is currently priced as being more risk-free than every tenor on the US Treasury curve.

以 0% 的殖利率計算，MicroStrategy 17.5 億美元的可轉換票據目前的定價比美國國債曲線上的所有期限都更無風險。

Investors are demanding a negative risk premium from the company that is literally just using their money to smash buy bitcoin. pic.twitter.com/UbeNuoZbYI

投資者要求該公司提供負風險溢價，該公司實際上只是用他們的錢來砸錢購買比特幣。 pic.twitter.com/UbeNuoZbYI

Curiously, MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor has been able to attract so much attention to his common stock that MSTR once traded above a 3.4X multiple to his BTC holdings — as recently as November 2024.

奇怪的是，MicroStrategy 創辦人 Michael Saylor 的普通股吸引瞭如此多的關注，以至於 MSTR 的交易價格一度是他持有的 BTC 的 3.4 倍以上——就在 2024 年 11 月。

Any multiple expansion from today’s 1.94X — and certainly as extreme as 3.4X — would obviously be devastating to a fully hedged arbitrageur aiming for that multiple to decline.

從今天的 1.94 倍（當然甚至極端到 3.4 倍）的任何倍數擴張，對於旨在降低倍數的完全對沖套利者來說顯然都是毀滅性的。

Traders bid up the price of MSTR because they believe Saylor will be able to continue to use financial engineering to attract volatility bond buyers to fund accretive BTC acquisitions for many months to come.

交易員提高了 MSTR 的價格，因為他們相信 Saylor 將能夠繼續利用金融工程來吸引波動性債券買家，為未來幾個月的增值 BTC 收購提供資金。

Traders also think that Saylor will be able to unlock value from the world’s largest corporate BTC treasury through other investment banking products, such as loans, derivatives, or other BTC-backed offerings.

交易員還認為，Saylor 將能夠透過其他投資銀行產品（例如貸款、衍生性商品或其他 BTC 支援的產品）從全球最大的企業 BTC 金庫中釋放價值。

Concentrated ownership of bitcoin is normal

比特幣所有權集中是正常現象

Second, Frontini’s perspective is notable for its confidence in BTC’s resilience. Frontini seemed mostly unconcerned about the impact of MicroStrategy, or even larger custodians like Blackrock, Fidelity, and Grayscale, on the Bitcoin ecosystem.

其次，Frontini 的觀點因其對 BTC 彈性的信心而引人注目。 Frontini 似乎並不關心 MicroStrategy 甚至 Blackrock、Fidelity 和 Grayscale 等更大的託管機構對比特幣生態系統的影響。

Given his years of experience in the crypto sector, he recognizes that ownership of BTC has always been concentrated with a small number of large custodians.

鑑於他在加密貨幣領域的多年經驗，他認識到比特幣的所有權始終集中在少數大型託管人手中。

This was as true in Bitcoin’s early MtGox days as it is in the modern Binance, Coinbase, or MicroStrategy days. Large custodians have always concentrated ownership of BTC wallets, yet the network has remained resilient for over a decade.

無論是在比特幣早期的 MtGox 時代，還是在現代的 Binance、Coinbase 或 MicroStrategy 時代，都是如此。大型託管機構始終集中比特幣錢包的所有權，但該網路十多年來一直保持彈性。

Because Frontini understands that control of coins doesn’t necessarily indicate control of the network — miners append data to Bitcoin’s blockchain, and node operators validate consensus rules — he’s not concerned about MicroStrategy posing a systemic risk to the crypto ecosystem.

因為Frontini 明白，對代幣的控制並不一定意味著對網路的控制——礦工將數據附加到比特幣的區塊鏈，節點運營商驗證共識規則——他並不擔心MicroStrategy 給加密生態系統帶來系統性風險。

MicroStrategy is powered by its #Bitcoin treasury operations.

MicroStrategy 由其#Bitcoin 金庫業務提供支援。

We sell volatility through our ATM offerings, strip BTC risk, volatility, and performance from our fixed-income securities, and transfer that performance to our $MSTR equity holders. pic.twitter.com/QedCazsrsN

我們透過 ATM 產品出售波動性，從我們的固定收益證券中剝離 BTC 風險、波動性和業績，並將該業績轉移給我們的 $MSTR 股東。 pic.twitter.com/QedCazsrsN

Away from MicroStrategy, Protos asked Frontini about other topics, including Tether.

在 MicroStrategy 之外，Protos 向 Frontini 詢問了其他主題，包括 Tether。

Other market insights from Heka Funds

Heka Funds 的其他市場見解

In 2023, Heka’s Funds, including a BTC fund, held total combined assets of more than €1.8 billion and had an increase in net assets of approximately $372m.

2023 年，Heka 旗下基金（包括一檔 BTC 基金）持有的總資產超過 18 億歐元，淨資產增加約 3.72 億美元。

Protos asked Frontini how he achieves

普羅托斯問弗朗蒂尼是如何實現的