儘管佔地面積越來越大，策略的比特幣（BTC）購買似乎對價格影響不大

儘管作為比特幣（BTC）的主要公司持有人的足跡越來越大，但戰略對加密貨幣的大規模購買似乎對其價格的影響很小。

Despite its growing footprint as a major corporate holder of bitcoin (BTC), Strategy’s large-scale purchases of the cryptocurrency appear to have little, if any, influence on its price, according to a research paper by TD Cowen.

根據TD Cowen的一份研究論文，儘管作為比特幣（BTC）的主要公司持有人的佔地面積越來越大，但戰略對加密貨幣的大規模購買似乎對價格的影響很小，對其價格的影響很小。

The findings published Monday challenge a popular theory among skeptics — that Strategy’s aggressive buying spree is helping prop up bitcoin’s value, and that without its continued demand, prices would falter. But based on the data, that argument doesn’t hold much weight, the analysts said.

週一發布的調查結果挑戰了懷疑論者中的一種流行理論 - 該戰略的積極購買狂潮正在幫助提高比特幣的價值，而如果沒有其持續的需求，價格就會搖搖欲墜。分析師說，基於數據，該論點並不能承受太多的權重。

A Big Buyer, But a Small Slice of the Market

一個大買家，但市場上的一小部分

Strategy recently issued another 1.8 million shares under its at-the-market (ATM) offering, raising an additional $842 million in net proceeds. The funds were used to purchase 6,556 bitcoins, boosting the firm’s bitcoin yield this quarter by 1% to 12.1%. However, when measured against the broader bitcoin market, these purchases are just a drop in the bucket.

策略最近在其市場上（ATM）產品下又發行了180萬股股票，並籌集了8.42億美元的淨收益。這些資金用於購買6,556個比特幣，將本季度公司的比特幣收益率提高了1％至12.1％。但是，當針對更廣泛的比特幣市場進行衡量時，這些購買只是桶中的下降。

According to the TD Cowen analysis, Strategy’s bitcoin buys have typically accounted for just 3.3% of weekly trading volume on average. Over the past 27 weeks, the company’s total activity amounted to 8.4% of volume — but this figure was skewed by a handful of weeks where its buying briefly surged past 20%. In eight of those weeks, Strategy didn’t buy any bitcoin at all.

根據TD Cowen分析，策略的比特幣購買通常僅占平均每週交易量的3.3％。在過去的27周中，該公司的總活動佔數量的8.4％，但是這個數字偏向了幾週，在幾週內，其購買短暫飆升了20％。在那幾週的八個星期內，策略根本沒有購買任何比特幣。

“Our conclusion is that in most periods, it doesn't appear plausible that Strategy's purchases could have had a sustained, material impact on the price of bitcoin,” TD Cowen analysts wrote.

TD Cowen分析師寫道：“我們的結論是，在大多數時期，策略的購買可能對比特幣的價格產生持續的重大影響似乎是不合理的。”

Correlation? Not Much.

相關性？不多。

The analysis further tested the relationship between Strategy’s bitcoin purchases and market prices — and found it to be statistically weak. The correlation coefficient between Strategy’s weekly bitcoin buy volume and BTC price at week’s end came in at just 25%. When comparing purchases to weekly price changes, the correlation rose only slightly to 28%.

該分析進一步測試了策略的比特幣購買與市場價格之間的關係，並發現它在統計上很弱。策略每週的比特幣購買量與週末BTC價格之間的相關係數僅為25％。當將購買與每週價格變化進行比較時，相關性僅略有至28％。

Given a correlation coefficient close to 0 suggests no or weak correlation, these results indicate little to no link between Strategy’s actions and short-term market movements — let alone any kind of sustained price influence, the paper said.

該論文說，鑑於相關係數接近0表示沒有或弱相關性，這些結果表明策略的行動與短期市場變動之間幾乎沒有聯繫，更不用說任何持續的價格影響了。

What About Outpacing Miners?

超過礦工呢？

Another common critique is that Strategy frequently purchases more bitcoin than is mined in a given period, implying it’s creating upward price pressure. While technically true, the analysis shows this argument misunderstands how the bitcoin market works.

另一個常見的批評是，策略經常購買比給定時期內開采的比特幣更多的比特幣，這意味著它正在造成向上的價格壓力。儘管從技術上講是正確的，但分析表明了這一論點誤解了比特幣市場的運作方式。

Over the past six months, secondary bitcoin trading has outpaced mining volume by nearly 20 times. Even removing Strategy’s purchases from the equation, secondary market activity still exceeds new supply by 17 times. In that environment, miners and buyers alike are price takers — not setters.

在過去的六個月中，次級比特幣交易的開採量超過了近20倍。即使從等式中刪除策略的購買，二級市場活動仍然超過17倍的新供應。在那種環境中，礦工和買家都是價格收穫者，而不是固定者。

“As we have seen, its purchases represent a very small percentage of total bitcoin trading volume; thus the idea that it is somehow having a profound or even notable impact on bitcoin price action seems incongruous, to us,” TD Cowen said.

TD Cowen說：“正如我們已經看到的那樣，它的購買佔比特幣交易量的很小比例；因此，這對我們來說，這是對比特幣價格行動產生深遠甚至顯著影響的想法，這對我們來說似乎是不協調的。”

Building Value, Not Hype

建築價值，而不是炒作

While Strategy’s influence on the bitcoin market may be overstated, the value it’s generated for shareholders is harder to ignore.

儘管戰略對比特幣市場的影響可能被誇大了，但它對股東產生的價值很難忽略。

Last week’s purchases created an estimated incremental gain of 5,281 bitcoins, bringing quarter-to-date gains to nearly $600 million. Since the beginning of 2023, Strategy has increased its bitcoin holdings by 306%, while only expanding its fully diluted share count by 94% — a strong showing for a company using bitcoin as a strategic treasury asset.

上週的購買創造了估計的增量增益為5,281個比特幣，使季度至6億美元的收益達到了近6億美元。自2023年初以來，策略將其比特幣持有量增加了306％，而僅將其完全稀釋的份額計數擴大了94％，這是一家使用比特幣作為戰略財政資產的公司。

With $1.53 billion in remaining ATM capacity and board approval for a larger share authorization, Strategy is well-positioned to continue this strategy — without disrupting the very market it’s betting on.

憑藉15.3億美元的剩餘ATM容量和董事會批准以獲得更大的股份授權，戰略旨在繼續進行此策略，而不會破壞其賭注的市場。

“We expect Strategy will continue to drive positive BTC Yield for the foreseeable future. While BTC Yield will likely fall to the extent bitcoin continues to rise in price, the dollar value of incremental gains from Strategy's Treasury Operations could remain highly advantageous to shareholders,” the analysts wrote.

分析師寫道：“在可預見的未來，戰略將繼續提高BTC的積極收益率。儘管BTC的收益率可能會降至比特幣的價格上漲程度，但策略的國庫業務的增量收益的美元價值可能對股東仍然有利，”分析師寫道。