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隨著聯準會 (Fed) 開始改變利率方針,Tether 和其他四家穩定幣發行人面臨 6.25 億美元年利息收入消失的風險。
As the Federal Reserve (Fed) begins to change course on interest rates, Tether (USDT) and four other stablecoin issuers could see up to $625 million in annual interest income vanish, according to a recent CCData report. This upheaval highlights stablecoins’ heavy reliance on U.S. Treasury bonds, a crucial pillar of their economic model.
根據 CCData 最近的一份報告,隨著聯準會 (Fed) 開始改變利率方向,Tether (USDT) 和其他四家穩定幣發行機構可能會看到高達 6.25 億美元的年利息收入消失。這場劇變凸顯了穩定幣對美國公債的嚴重依賴,而美國公債是其經濟模式的重要支柱。
The Fed's decision to lower interest rates has far-reaching implications for the stablecoin industry. When interest rates drop, so do the yields on Treasury bonds. For issuers like Tether, whose reserves are nearly 80% comprised of Treasury bonds, this translates to an immediate reduction in revenue generated from these investments.
聯準會降息的決定對穩定幣產業產生深遠影響。當利率下降時,國債殖利率也會下降。對於像 Tether 這樣的發行人來說,其儲備近 80% 是國債,這意味著這些投資產生的收入立即減少。
According to CCData's analysis, this drop could cost the stablecoin industry around $625 million annually. The numbers are striking, showcasing the extent to which stablecoins have come to rely on U.S. monetary policy.
根據 CCData 的分析,這種下降可能會讓穩定幣產業每年損失約 6.25 億美元。這些數字令人震驚,顯示了穩定幣對美國貨幣政策的依賴程度。
Among the stablecoins, Tether stands out with $93.2 billion in assets under management (AUM). Having generated record profits of $5.2 billion in the first half of 2024, largely attributed to returns from its U.S. government bonds, these revenues now face a serious threat.
在穩定幣中,Tether 以 932 億美元的管理資產(AUM)脫穎而出。 2024 年上半年創造了創紀錄的 52 億美元利潤(主要歸功於美國政府債券的回報),但這些收入現在面臨嚴重威脅。
With its remaining assets primarily consisting of certificates of deposit, money market instruments, and other commercial paper, Tether's economic model hinges heavily on the performance of these traditional assets.
由於其剩餘資產主要包括存款證、貨幣市場工具和其他商業票據,Tether 的經濟模型在很大程度上取決於這些傳統資產的表現。
As the Fed's rate cuts and their impact on Treasury bond yields become evident, the question arises: can stablecoins continue to thrive by relying solely on Treasury bonds? Some signs suggest that stablecoin issuers like Tether have already begun diversification strategies to mitigate this vulnerability.
隨著聯準會降息及其對國債收益率的影響變得明顯,問題出現了:僅依靠國債穩定幣能否繼續蓬勃發展?一些跡象表明,像 Tether 這樣的穩定幣發行人已經開始採取多元化策略來緩解這一漏洞。
Recently, Tether made an investment of over $112 million in an agribusiness company in Argentina. While surprising for a crypto company, this move illustrates a willingness to diversify their income.
最近,Tether 對阿根廷一家農業企業投資了超過 1.12 億美元。雖然對於加密貨幣公司來說令人驚訝,但此舉表明了其收入多元化的意願。
This investment in agribusiness is part of a broader trend among stablecoin issuers to explore sectors outside finance to secure new sources of revenue. As traditional assets become less lucrative, these companies are seeking to expand their horizons.
這種對農業綜合企業的投資是穩定幣發行者探索金融以外領域以確保新收入來源的更廣泛趨勢的一部分。隨著傳統資產的利潤越來越低,這些公司正在尋求擴大視野。
However, the question remains whether this diversification will be enough to offset the loss of Treasury bond yields, which have been a major source of profits for these companies.
然而,問題仍然是這種多元化是否足以抵銷國債殖利率的損失,而國債殖利率一直是這些公司的主要利潤來源。
Meanwhile, other cryptos, such as Circle's USDC, are in a similar position. With $28.7 billion in Treasury bonds, USDC finds itself in a comparable situation to Tether.
同時,其他加密貨幣,例如 Circle 的 USDC,也處於類似的境地。 USDC 擁有 287 億美元的國債,處境與 Tether 相當。
However, Circle is betting on more dynamic fund management to mitigate the impact of the rate drop. Through its Circle Reserve Fund, the company is able to generate additional revenue, which could help offset some of the losses from lower interest rates.
然而,Circle 押注於更動態的基金管理,以減輕利率下降的影響。透過其 Circle Reserve Fund,該公司能夠產生額外的收入,這可能有助於抵消利率下降的部分損失。
The Fed's decision deserves particular attention. This change could mark a turning point in the stablecoin economy.
聯準會的決定值得特別關注。這項變化可能標誌著穩定幣經濟的轉捩點。
Interest income from Treasury bonds has long been a major source of profits for these companies, allowing them to function while ensuring the stability of their tokens. If these revenues decrease, it could force issuers to rethink their economic model.
長期以來,國債利息收入一直是這些公司的主要利潤來源,使它們能夠在保證其代幣穩定性的同時運作。如果這些收入減少,可能會迫使發行人重新考慮其經濟模式。
One option for stablecoin issuers would be to increase their service fees or explore new investment avenues.
穩定幣發行人的選擇之一是提高服務費或探索新的投資途徑。
However, this poses challenges: how to maintain user trust while adapting their model to a lower interest rate environment? If Tether, Circle, and other stablecoins fail to find viable alternatives, they risk losing competitiveness to other decentralized finance players, less reliant on traditional assets.
然而,這帶來了挑戰:如何在保持使用者信任的同時使模型適應較低的利率環境?如果 Tether、Circle 和其他穩定幣未能找到可行的替代品,它們可能會失去對其他去中心化金融參與者的競爭力,減少對傳統資產的依賴。
Pressure is mounting, and eyes are now turned towards the future strategies of stablecoin issuers. Will they withstand this storm, or will they have to yield ground to more agile alternatives? The stablecoin sector faces a significant challenge with this Fed decision.
壓力越來越大,人們的目光現在轉向穩定幣發行人的未來策略。他們能否經得起這場風暴,還是必須屈服於更敏捷的替代方案?聯準會的這項決定使穩定幣產業面臨重大挑戰。
While $625 million in losses may seem bearable in the short term for giants like Tether, the question of their long-term resilience remains open. The economic model that led to their success now seems threatened.
雖然對於像 Tether 這樣的巨頭來說,短期內 6.25 億美元的損失似乎可以承受,但它們的長期彈性問題仍然懸而未決。導致他們成功的經濟模式現在似乎受到了威脅。
Meanwhile, Bitcoin and altcoins are collapsing dramatically.
與此同時,比特幣和山寨幣正在急劇崩潰。
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