Eugene Ng Ah Sio 預測 ETH 將成為 2025 年第一季表現最佳的主流代幣

12月29日，頗具影響力的加密貨幣交易員Eugene Ng Ah Sio在X上發布了他對2025年第一季的展望和預期，預測ETH將成為下一季表現最好的主流代幣。

Cryptocurrency trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio shared his market outlook and expectations for the first quarter of 2025 on Friday, predicting that ether (ETH) will be the best-performing mainstream token in the next quarter.

加密貨幣交易員 Eugene Ng Ah Sio 週五分享了他對 2025 年第一季的市場展望和預期，預測以太幣（ETH）將成為下一季表現最好的主流代幣。

Eugene first listed three reasons for his bullish outlook on ETH: technical trends; Trump's favor (especially WLF's significant purchases in the Ethereum ecosystem); and the development status of the Base ecosystem. He then went on to elaborate, stating that since Trump's victory, the fund flows into the spot ether ETF have experienced a 180-degree turnaround.

尤金首先列出了他看好 ETH 的三個理由：科技趨勢；川普的青睞（尤其是WLF在以太坊生態系統中的重大購買）；以及Base生態系的發展現況。他接著詳細闡述，表示自川普獲勝以來，流入現貨以太ETF的資金發生了180度的大轉變。

ETF Fund Trends: Is Ethereum More Favorable?

ETF基金趨勢：以太坊比較有利嗎？

Eugene's statement is not an exaggeration; data from SoSoValue shows that since Trump's victory on November 6, the fund flows into spot ether ETFs have increased significantly, with the growth trend even surpassing that of Bitcoin spot ETFs during the same period.

尤金的說法並不誇張； SoSoValue數據顯示，自11月6日川普獲勝以來，流入以太坊現貨ETF的資金大幅增加，成長趨勢甚至超過同期比特幣現貨ETF。

Entering late December, this trend has become even more apparent.

進入12月下旬，這種趨勢更加明顯。

According to data from SoSoValue, during the last trading week (Eastern Time December 23 to December 27), ether spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $349 million, while Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $388 million—this significant difference in fund movement may indicate a better outlook for ETH in the future.

SoSoValue數據顯示，上週（東部時間12月23日至12月27日），以太坊現貨ETF淨流入3.49億美元，而比特幣現貨ETF淨流出3.88億美元，資金動向差異顯著可能預示著ETH未來的前景會更好。

As of the time of writing, the official ETF inflow/outflow data for this Monday has not been fully released, but according to on-chain monitoring by Lookonchain, yesterday, ten U.S. Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of 3,000 BTC ($275.59 million); nine Ethereum ETFs saw a net inflow of 16,359 ETH ($54.33 million), and the trend seems to remain unchanged.

截至發稿，本週一官方 ETF 流入/流出數據尚未完全公佈，但根據 Lookonchain 鏈上監測，昨日 10 只美國比特幣 ETF 淨流出 3000 BTC（2.7559 億美元） ; 9隻以太坊ETF淨流入16,359 ETH（5,433萬美元），趨勢似乎保持不變。

Trump Concept Family Package

川普概念家庭套餐

In addition to the ETF liquidity data, another piece of evidence supporting the bullish outlook for ETH is the continuous accumulation by the Trump family project WLFI.

除了ETF流動性數據之外，支持ETH前景看漲的另一個證據是川普家族計畫WLFI的持續增持。

Recently, WLFI has successively purchased several Ethereum ecosystem tokens such as AAVE, LINK, ENA, and ONDO, but the largest holding of the project still remains ETH.

近期，WLFI 陸續購買了 AAVE、LINK、ENA、ONDO 等多個以太坊生態代幣，但該專案最大持倉量仍為 ETH。

Although this is somewhat related to the fact that WIFI itself is deployed in the Ethereum ecosystem, the phrase "The president is on board, what are you still hesitating for?" still has a strong FOMO effect.

雖然這與以太坊生態本身部署WIFI有一定關係，但那句“總統已上任，還猶豫什麼？”仍有很強的 FOMO 效應。

Reviewing Historical Data, Will History Repeat Itself?

回顧歷史數據，歷史會重演嗎？

Data from Coinglass shows that in the first quarter of the new year following historical U.S. elections and Bitcoin halving cycles, ETH has performed the best, especially in the first quarters of 2017 and 2021, where ETH rose by 518% and 161%, respectively, even surpassing BTC's returns in those two quarters (11.9%, 103.2%).

Coinglass的數據顯示，在歷史性的美國大選和比特幣減半週期之後的新年第一季度，ETH表現最好，尤其是在2017年和2021年第一季度，ETH分別上漲了518%和161% ，甚至超過了 BTC 這兩季的回報率（11.9%、103.2%）。

If history repeats itself, ETH may see significant gains in Q1 of next year.

如果歷史重演，ETH 可能會在明年第一季大幅上漲。

Potential Beta Choices

潛在的測試版選擇

If ETH does rise as expected, some Ethereum ecosystem tokens may become higher-risk/higher-reward Beta choices, such as:

如果 ETH 確實如預期上漲，一些以太坊生態系統代幣可能會成為更高風險/更高回報的 Beta 選擇，例如：

Note: The above tokens are merely examples from specific sectors and concepts and do not constitute investment advice.

註：以上代幣僅為特定產業和概念的範例，不構成投資建議。

Opposing Views

反對意見

Although several well-known investors/traders, including Eugene, have clearly expressed a bullish outlook on ETH, there are also voices holding a pessimistic view on ETH's future performance.

儘管包括尤金在內的幾位知名投資者/交易員都明確表達了對 ETH 的看漲前景，但也有聲音對 ETH 的未來表現持悲觀看法。

Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, painted a more pessimistic scenario, predicting that ETH will continue to perform poorly and will not reach new historical highs in a "hawkish" macro environment in 2025: "We expect a more conservative outlook for ETH in 2025. Unlike previous years, the initial hawkish policies may be tested by weakening liquidity tailwinds."

10x Research 創辦人 Markus Thielen 描繪了更悲觀的情景，預測 ETH 將繼續表現不佳，在 2025 年「鷹派」宏觀環境下不會創下歷史新高：「我們預計 2025 年 ETH 前景將更加保守與前幾年不同，最初的鷹派政策可能會受到流動性順風減弱的考驗。

During this period of significant market volatility, the predictions provided by various parties are merely "one-sided conclusions" based on their respective conditions and indicators; no one can predict the future, so remember to DYOR before making any moves.

在市場大幅波動的時期，各方根據各自的情況和指標所做的預測只是「片面的結論」；沒有人可以預測未來，所以在採取任何行動之前請記住 DYOR。