Eugene Ng Ah Sio 预测 ETH 将成为 2025 年第一季度表现最佳的主流代币

12月29日，颇具影响力的加密货币交易员Eugene Ng Ah Sio在X上发布了他对2025年第一季度的展望和预期，预测ETH将成为下一季度表现最好的主流代币。

Cryptocurrency trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio shared his market outlook and expectations for the first quarter of 2025 on Friday, predicting that ether (ETH) will be the best-performing mainstream token in the next quarter.

加密货币交易员 Eugene Ng Ah Sio 周五分享了他对 2025 年第一季度的市场展望和预期，预测以太币（ETH）将成为下一季度表现最好的主流代币。

Eugene first listed three reasons for his bullish outlook on ETH: technical trends; Trump's favor (especially WLF's significant purchases in the Ethereum ecosystem); and the development status of the Base ecosystem. He then went on to elaborate, stating that since Trump's victory, the fund flows into the spot ether ETF have experienced a 180-degree turnaround.

尤金首先列出了他看好 ETH 的三个理由：技术趋势；特朗普的青睐（尤其是WLF在以太坊生态系统中的重大购买）；以及Base生态系统的发展现状。他接着详细阐述，表示自特朗普获胜以来，流入现货以太ETF的资金发生了180度的大转变。

ETF Fund Trends: Is Ethereum More Favorable?

ETF基金趋势：以太坊更有利吗？

Eugene's statement is not an exaggeration; data from SoSoValue shows that since Trump's victory on November 6, the fund flows into spot ether ETFs have increased significantly, with the growth trend even surpassing that of Bitcoin spot ETFs during the same period.

尤金的说法并不夸张； SoSoValue数据显示，自11月6日特朗普获胜以来，流入以太坊现货ETF的资金大幅增加，增长趋势甚至超过同期比特币现货ETF。

Entering late December, this trend has become even more apparent.

进入12月下旬，这一趋势更加明显。

According to data from SoSoValue, during the last trading week (Eastern Time December 23 to December 27), ether spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $349 million, while Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $388 million—this significant difference in fund movement may indicate a better outlook for ETH in the future.

SoSoValue数据显示，上周（东部时间12月23日至12月27日），以太坊现货ETF净流入3.49亿美元，而比特币现货ETF净流出3.88亿美元，资金动向差异显着可能预示着 ETH 未来的前景会更好。

As of the time of writing, the official ETF inflow/outflow data for this Monday has not been fully released, but according to on-chain monitoring by Lookonchain, yesterday, ten U.S. Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of 3,000 BTC ($275.59 million); nine Ethereum ETFs saw a net inflow of 16,359 ETH ($54.33 million), and the trend seems to remain unchanged.

截至发稿，本周一官方 ETF 流入/流出数据尚未完全公布，但据 Lookonchain 链上监测，昨日 10 只美国比特币 ETF 净流出 3000 BTC（2.7559 亿美元） ; 9只以太坊ETF净流入16,359 ETH（5433万美元），趋势似乎保持不变。

Trump Concept Family Package

特朗普概念家庭套餐

In addition to the ETF liquidity data, another piece of evidence supporting the bullish outlook for ETH is the continuous accumulation by the Trump family project WLFI.

除了ETF流动性数据之外，支持ETH前景看涨的另一个证据是特朗普家族项目WLFI的持续增持。

Recently, WLFI has successively purchased several Ethereum ecosystem tokens such as AAVE, LINK, ENA, and ONDO, but the largest holding of the project still remains ETH.

近期，WLFI 陆续购买了 AAVE、LINK、ENA、ONDO 等多个以太坊生态代币，但该项目最大持仓量仍为 ETH。

Although this is somewhat related to the fact that WIFI itself is deployed in the Ethereum ecosystem, the phrase "The president is on board, what are you still hesitating for?" still has a strong FOMO effect.

虽然这和以太坊生态本身就部署了WIFI有一定的关系，但那句“总统已上任，还犹豫什么？”仍然有很强的 FOMO 效应。

Reviewing Historical Data, Will History Repeat Itself?

回顾历史数据，历史会重演吗？

Data from Coinglass shows that in the first quarter of the new year following historical U.S. elections and Bitcoin halving cycles, ETH has performed the best, especially in the first quarters of 2017 and 2021, where ETH rose by 518% and 161%, respectively, even surpassing BTC's returns in those two quarters (11.9%, 103.2%).

Coinglass的数据显示，在历史性的美国大选和比特币减半周期之后的新年第一季度，ETH表现最好，尤其是在2017年和2021年第一季度，ETH分别上涨了518%和161%，甚至超过了 BTC 这两个季度的回报率（11.9%、103.2%）。

If history repeats itself, ETH may see significant gains in Q1 of next year.

如果历史重演，ETH 可能会在明年第一季度出现大幅上涨。

Potential Beta Choices

潜在的测试版选择

If ETH does rise as expected, some Ethereum ecosystem tokens may become higher-risk/higher-reward Beta choices, such as:

如果 ETH 确实如预期上涨，一些以太坊生态系统代币可能会成为更高风险/更高回报的 Beta 选择，例如：

Note: The above tokens are merely examples from specific sectors and concepts and do not constitute investment advice.

注：以上代币仅为特定行业和概念的示例，不构成投资建议。

Opposing Views

反对意见

Although several well-known investors/traders, including Eugene, have clearly expressed a bullish outlook on ETH, there are also voices holding a pessimistic view on ETH's future performance.

尽管包括尤金在内的几位知名投资者/交易员都明确表达了对 ETH 的看涨前景，但也有声音对 ETH 的未来表现持悲观看法。

Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, painted a more pessimistic scenario, predicting that ETH will continue to perform poorly and will not reach new historical highs in a "hawkish" macro environment in 2025: "We expect a more conservative outlook for ETH in 2025. Unlike previous years, the initial hawkish policies may be tested by weakening liquidity tailwinds."

10x Research 创始人 Markus Thielen 描绘了更为悲观的情景，预测 ETH 将继续表现不佳，在 2025 年“鹰派”宏观环境下不会创下新的历史高位：“我们预计 2025 年 ETH 的前景将更加保守与前几年不同的是，最初的鹰派政策可能会受到流动性顺风减弱的考验。”

During this period of significant market volatility, the predictions provided by various parties are merely "one-sided conclusions" based on their respective conditions and indicators; no one can predict the future, so remember to DYOR before making any moves.

在市场大幅波动的时期，各方根据各自的情况和指标做出的预测只是“片面的结论”；没有人可以预测未来，所以在采取任何行动之前请记住 DYOR。