隨著鯨魚的積累，市場供應減少，以太坊四月將飆升

2024 年 3 月，以太坊小幅成長 11.8%，收在 3,646.8 美元。儘管最初勢頭良好，但 3 月 13 日的 Dencun 升級導致了拋售。然而，最近的趨勢顯示ETH 鯨魚投資者出現看漲轉變，自3 月20 日以來，他們已累積了860,000 ETH，價值約31 億美元。這種轉變，加上交易所供應量下降，顯示以太坊4月有一個積極的開局，潛在阻力位為3,700 美元，支撐位為 3,200 美元。

Ethereum Price Poised for April Surge as Whales Resume Accumulation and Market Supply Dwindles

隨著鯨魚恢復累積和市場供應減少，以太幣價格預計四月飆升

Ethereum (ETH) concluded March 2024 on a positive note, closing at $3,646.8, marking an 11.8% monthly gain. While the Dencun Upgrade initially triggered a sell-off, recent whale buying trends and on-chain metrics suggest a bullish trajectory for the month of April.

以太幣 (ETH) 於 2024 年 3 月收盤，收在 3,646.8 美元，月漲幅為 11.8%。雖然 Dencun 升級最初引發了拋售，但最近的鯨魚購買趨勢和鏈上指標顯示 4 月的看漲軌跡。

Whale Accumulation Resumes Post-Upgrade Sell-Off

鯨魚囤積在升級後恢復拋售

In the aftermath of the Dencun Upgrade on March 13, Ethereum faced a 13% dip as swing traders and large stakeholders offloaded holdings to mitigate potential network disruptions. However, the past two weeks have witnessed a reversal in sentiment, with whales accumulating 860,000 ETH worth approximately $3.1 billion.

在 3 月 13 日的 Dencun 升級之後，由於波動交易者和大型利益相關者拋售資產以減輕潛在的網路中斷，以太坊面臨 13% 的下跌。然而，過去兩週見證了市場情緒的逆轉，鯨魚囤積了 86 萬枚 ETH，價值約 31 億美元。

This sustained buying spree by top holders is significant for several reasons. Firstly, whales exert considerable influence on price action and investor behavior. Their recent acquisition signals market recovery and potentially attracts new entrants. Secondly, whale investors typically adopt a long-term investment horizon, suggesting that a substantial portion of the $3.1 billion purchase will remain off the market supply in the near term.

頂級持有者的持續購買熱潮意義重大，原因有幾個。首先，鯨魚對價格行為和投資者行為有相當大的影響。他們最近的收購標誌著市場復甦，並可能吸引新進入者。其次，鯨魚投資者通常會採取長期投資期限，這表明 31 億美元的購買中的很大一部分在短期內仍將遠離市場供應。

Declining Exchange Supply Bolsters Bullish Outlook

交易所供應下降支撐看漲前景

Complementing the whale accumulation trend, on-chain data reveals a persistent decline in ETH coins available for trading on exchanges. Since whale wallets resumed buying on March 20, crypto exchanges have experienced a 363,000 ETH drop in active market supply, equating to over $1.3 billion in liquidity being pulled from spot markets.

鏈上數據顯示，可在交易所交易的 ETH 幣持續下降，與鯨魚累積趨勢相輔相成。自 3 月 20 日鯨魚錢包恢復購買以來，加密貨幣交易所的活躍市場供應量減少了 363,000 ETH，相當於從現貨市場撤走超過 13 億美元的流動性。

This reduced supply, albeit temporary, places Ethereum price in a prime position for an accelerated breakout during the next demand surge in April 2024, as per the principles of demand economics.

根據需求經濟學原理，這種供應減少雖然是暫時的，但使以太坊價格處於有利地位，以便在 2024 年 4 月的下一次需求激增期間加速突破。

Resistance at $3,700, Breakout Above $4,000 Expected

阻力位 3,700 美元，預計突破 4,000 美元

Based on these on-chain observations, Ethereum price is poised to surpass $4,000 in April 2024. However, bulls face a significant resistance level at $3,700, where 9.8 million addresses holding 4.7 million ETH will break even. If a majority of these holders exit at this level, ETH's rally could face downward pressure.

根據這些鏈上觀察，以太坊價格預計在 2024 年 4 月突破 4,000 美元。然而，多頭面臨 3,700 美元的重大阻力位，持有 470 萬 ETH 的 980 萬個地址將在該水平實現收支平衡。如果大多數持有者在這個水平退出，ETH 的反彈可能會面臨下行壓力。

Nevertheless, the combined impact of whale accumulation and declining market supply suggests that ETH price will likely overcome this sell wall and reach new heights above $4,000.

儘管如此，鯨魚的累積和市場供應量下降的綜合影響表明，ETH 價格可能會克服這一拋售牆並達到 4,000 美元以上的新高。

Bearish Scenario: Break Below $3,200

看跌情景：跌破 3,200 美元

On the downside, if the broader crypto market rally stalls, Ethereum bears could regain control if ETH price dips below $3,200. However, this scenario appears unlikely given the current market dynamics. Additionally, the 9.1 million addresses that acquired 7.7 million ETH at an average price of $3,484 could step in to prevent a significant decline below $3,500.

不利的一面是，如果更廣泛的加密市場漲勢停滯，如果 ETH 價格跌破 3,200 美元，以太坊空頭可能會重新獲得控制權。然而，考慮到當前的市場動態，這種情況似乎不太可能發生。此外，以平均價格 3,484 美元購買 770 萬枚 ETH 的 910 萬個地址可能會介入，以防止價格大幅跌破 3,500 美元。

Conclusion

結論

Ethereum's recent whale accumulation, coupled with declining exchange supply, paints a bullish picture for April 2024. While a resistance level at $3,700 could pose a challenge, the fundamental factors supporting ETH's price trajectory suggest a breakout above $4,000 remains highly probable.

以太坊最近的鯨魚積累，加上交易所供應量的下降，為2024 年4 月描繪了一幅看漲的圖景。雖然3,700 美元的阻力位可能構成挑戰，但支撐ETH 價格軌蹟的基本因素表明，突破4,000 美元上方的可能性仍然很大。