分析師警告稱，聯準會降息後以太幣（ETH）價格可能跌至 1,200 美元

加密貨幣分析師本傑明·考恩 (Benjamin Cowen) 最近表示，與 2019 年楔形低點相比，當前以太坊 (ETH) 價格的楔形形態非常相似。

Despite a recent recovery above the $2,350 levels, market analysts suggest that ETH may face further challenges. Historical chart patterns indicate that upcoming Fed rate cuts could spell trouble for altcoins like Ethereum (ETH).

儘管近期反彈至 2,350 美元以上，但市場分析師認為 ETH 可能面臨進一步挑戰。歷史圖表模式表明，即將到來的聯準會降息可能會給以太坊（ETH）等山寨幣帶來麻煩。

According to crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen, the current wedge pattern of the ETH price closely resembles the lows of the 2019 wedge. In 2019, ETH fell back to its wedge before the first rate cut, mirroring a similar scenario in the present 2024 cycle.

加密貨幣分析師 Benjamin Cowen 表示，目前 ETH 價格的楔形形態與 2019 年楔形的低點非常相似。 2019 年，ETH 在第一次降息前回落至楔形，反映了目前 2024 年週期的類似情況。

Following the first rate cut in 2019, ETH dropped below its wedge, eventually leading to a bottom in the ETH/BTC pair. Based on these historical patterns, Cowen predicts that ETH could drop to $1,200 by December.

在 2019 年首次降息後，ETH 跌破楔形，最終導致 ETH/BTC 貨幣對觸底。根據這些歷史模式，Cowen 預測 ETH 到 12 月可能會跌至 1,200 美元。

Moreover, the ETH/BTC pair broke down in 2016 and 2019, leading to a 70% decline in ETH/USD to a risk level of 0.300. Applying this to the current risk levels indicates a potential drop in the Ethereum price to $1,208.

此外，ETH/BTC 貨幣對在 2016 年和 2019 年出現了崩潰，導致 ETH/USD 下跌 70% 至 0.300 的風險水準。將此應用到當前的風險水平表明以太坊價格可能會跌至 1,208 美元。

Cowen anticipates a soft landing for ETH, with a possible rebound in the first half of 2025. However, he advises traders to make their own decisions and acknowledges the possibility of being wrong.

Cowen 預計 ETH 將軟著陸，並可能在 2025 年上半年反彈。

Recent top players' activity shows that the Ethereum whale activity has shot up recently, with entities like the Ethereum Foundation and Vitalik Buterin reducing their ETH holdings over the last few weeks.

最近頂級參與者的活動表明，以太坊鯨魚活動最近有所增加，以太坊基金會和 Vitalik Buterin 等實體在過去幾週內減少了他們的 ETH 持有量。

Furthermore, Hong Kong-based asset manager Metalpha has sold nearly 40% of its ETH holdings in the past four days, according to recent on-chain data.

此外，根據最近的鏈上數據，總部位於香港的資產管理公司 Metalpha 在過去四天內出售了近 40% 的 ETH 持有量。

Earlier today, the Bitmain-affiliated asset manager sold 10,000 ETH, valued at $23.5 million. In total, Metalpha has moved 33,589 ETH to the crypto exchange Binance over the last four days, as reported by blockchain analytics firm Lookonchain.

今天早些時候，比特大陸附屬資產管理公司出售了 10,000 枚 ETH，價值 2,350 萬美元。根據區塊鏈分析公司 Lookonchain 報導，在過去四天內，Metallpha 總共將 33,589 ETH 轉移到加密貨幣交易所 Binance。

Despite selling this large quantity in a short time, Methe still holds 51,300 ETH, or roughly $120 million, in its treasury. If the asset manager continues selling at this rate, it could exhaust its Ethereum holdings by the end of this week.

儘管在短時間內出售瞭如此大量的 ETH，Methe 的金庫中仍然持有 51,300 ETH，約合 1.2 億美元。如果資產管理公司繼續以這種速度出售，它可能會在本週末耗盡其持有的以太坊。

Metalpha deposited 10,000 $ETH($23.45M) again 15 mins ago.#Metalpha has deposited a total of 33,589 $ETH($77.55M) to #Binance in the past 4 days and currently holds 51.3K $ETH($120M).https://t.co/fTHHLpCEfr pic.twitter.com/SAJYTaSPp0

Metalpha 15 分鐘前再次存入10,000 $ETH（2,345 萬美元）。 https: //t.co/fTHHLpCEfr pic.twitter.com/SAJYTaSPp0

These large transactions, especially from top institutions, attract the attention of the crypto community, as they have the potential to influence the ETH price.

這些大額交易，尤其是來自頂級機構的交易，吸引了加密社群的關注，因為它們有可能影響 ETH 價格。

Currently, the ETH price shows 2% gains in the last 24 hours, surging past the $2,350 levels. The broader crypto market has been keeping a close watch on macro developments and the upcoming Fed rate cuts next week.

目前，ETH 價格在過去 24 小時內上漲 2%，飆升至 2,350 美元的水平。更廣泛的加密市場一直在密切關注宏觀發展和下週即將到來的聯準會降息。

Popular economist Peter Schiff stated, "The Fed rate cuts won’t prevent a recession. In fact, the U.S. economy has likely been in a recession for some time, though it hasn’t been officially confirmed yet. While short-term rates may fall, long-term rates and inflation will rise, along with unemployment. Game over."

受歡迎的經濟學家彼得希夫表示，「聯準會降息並不能阻止經濟衰退。事實上，美國經濟很可能已經陷入衰退一段時間了，儘管尚未得到官方證實。雖然短期利率可能會下降，但美國經濟可能已經陷入衰退一段時間了。