分析师警告称，美联储降息后以太坊（ETH）价格可能跌至 1,200 美元

加密货币分析师本杰明·考恩 (Benjamin Cowen) 最近表示，与 2019 年楔形低点相比，当前以太坊 (ETH) 价格的楔形形态非常相似。

Despite a recent recovery above the $2,350 levels, market analysts suggest that ETH may face further challenges. Historical chart patterns indicate that upcoming Fed rate cuts could spell trouble for altcoins like Ethereum (ETH).

尽管近期反弹至 2,350 美元以上，但市场分析师认为 ETH 可能面临进一步挑战。历史图表模式表明，即将到来的美联储降息可能会给以太坊（ETH）等山寨币带来麻烦。

According to crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen, the current wedge pattern of the ETH price closely resembles the lows of the 2019 wedge. In 2019, ETH fell back to its wedge before the first rate cut, mirroring a similar scenario in the present 2024 cycle.

加密货币分析师 Benjamin Cowen 表示，当前 ETH 价格的楔形形态与 2019 年楔形的低点非常相似。 2019 年，ETH 在第一次降息之前回落至楔形，反映了当前 2024 年周期的类似情况。

Following the first rate cut in 2019, ETH dropped below its wedge, eventually leading to a bottom in the ETH/BTC pair. Based on these historical patterns, Cowen predicts that ETH could drop to $1,200 by December.

在 2019 年首次降息后，ETH 跌破楔形，最终导致 ETH/BTC 货币对触底。根据这些历史模式，Cowen 预测 ETH 到 12 月可能会跌至 1,200 美元。

Moreover, the ETH/BTC pair broke down in 2016 and 2019, leading to a 70% decline in ETH/USD to a risk level of 0.300. Applying this to the current risk levels indicates a potential drop in the Ethereum price to $1,208.

此外，ETH/BTC 货币对在 2016 年和 2019 年出现了崩溃，导致 ETH/USD 下跌 70% 至 0.300 的风险水平。将此应用到当前的风险水平表明以太坊价格可能会跌至 1,208 美元。

Cowen anticipates a soft landing for ETH, with a possible rebound in the first half of 2025. However, he advises traders to make their own decisions and acknowledges the possibility of being wrong.

Cowen 预计 ETH 将软着陆，并可能在 2025 年上半年反弹。不过，他建议交易者自行做出决定，并承认有可能犯错。

Recent top players' activity shows that the Ethereum whale activity has shot up recently, with entities like the Ethereum Foundation and Vitalik Buterin reducing their ETH holdings over the last few weeks.

最近顶级参与者的活动表明，以太坊鲸鱼活动最近有所增加，以太坊基金会和 Vitalik Buterin 等实体在过去几周内减少了他们的 ETH 持有量。

Furthermore, Hong Kong-based asset manager Metalpha has sold nearly 40% of its ETH holdings in the past four days, according to recent on-chain data.

此外，根据最近的链上数据，总部位于香港的资产管理公司 Metalpha 在过去四天内出售了近 40% 的 ETH 持有量。

Earlier today, the Bitmain-affiliated asset manager sold 10,000 ETH, valued at $23.5 million. In total, Metalpha has moved 33,589 ETH to the crypto exchange Binance over the last four days, as reported by blockchain analytics firm Lookonchain.

今天早些时候，比特大陆附属资产管理公司出售了 10,000 枚 ETH，价值 2350 万美元。据区块链分析公司 Lookonchain 报道，过去四天内，Metallpha 总共将 33,589 ETH 转移到加密货币交易所 Binance。

Despite selling this large quantity in a short time, Methe still holds 51,300 ETH, or roughly $120 million, in its treasury. If the asset manager continues selling at this rate, it could exhaust its Ethereum holdings by the end of this week.

尽管在短时间内出售了如此大量的 ETH，Methe 的金库中仍然持有 51,300 ETH，约合 1.2 亿美元。如果资产管理公司继续以这种速度出售，它可能会在本周末耗尽其持有的以太坊。

Metalpha deposited 10,000 $ETH($23.45M) again 15 mins ago.#Metalpha has deposited a total of 33,589 $ETH($77.55M) to #Binance in the past 4 days and currently holds 51.3K $ETH($120M).https://t.co/fTHHLpCEfr pic.twitter.com/SAJYTaSPp0

Metalpha 15 分钟前再次存入 10,000 $ETH（2345 万美元）。#Metalpha 在过去 4 天内已向 #Binance 存入总计 33,589 $ETH（7755 万美元），目前持有 51,300 $ETH（1.2 亿美元）。https: //t.co/fTHHLpCEfr pic.twitter.com/SAJYTaSPp0

These large transactions, especially from top institutions, attract the attention of the crypto community, as they have the potential to influence the ETH price.

这些大额交易，尤其是来自顶级机构的交易，吸引了加密社区的关注，因为它们有可能影响 ETH 价格。

Currently, the ETH price shows 2% gains in the last 24 hours, surging past the $2,350 levels. The broader crypto market has been keeping a close watch on macro developments and the upcoming Fed rate cuts next week.

目前，ETH 价格在过去 24 小时内上涨 2%，飙升至 2,350 美元的水平。更广泛的加密市场一直在密切关注宏观发展和下周即将到来的美联储降息。

Popular economist Peter Schiff stated, "The Fed rate cuts won’t prevent a recession. In fact, the U.S. economy has likely been in a recession for some time, though it hasn’t been officially confirmed yet. While short-term rates may fall, long-term rates and inflation will rise, along with unemployment. Game over."

受欢迎的经济学家彼得希夫表示，“美联储降息并不能阻止经济衰退。事实上，美国经济很可能已经陷入衰退一段时间了，尽管尚未得到官方证实。虽然短期利率可能会下降，但美国经济可能已经陷入衰退一段时间了。”下跌，长期利率和通胀将会上升，失业率也会随之上升。”