Momentum 6 合夥人 Dennis Liu (@VirtualBacon0x) 表示，以太坊 (ETH) 可能會主導市場，到 2025 年將達到 14,000 美元

在今天（1 月 20 日）X 的帖子中，Momentum 6 的普通合夥人 Dennis Liu (@VirtualBacon0x) 對以太坊 (ETH) 做出了大膽的預測

A general partner at Momentum 6 is predicting that the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency will be able to reach a price target of $14,000 by the year 2025. In a thread on X today, January 20, Dennis Liu (@VirtualBacon0x) also contends that ETH’s potential to “dominate the market” through June will be pivotal.

Momentum 6 的一位普通合夥人預測，到2025 年，全球第二大加密貨幣將能夠達到14,000 美元的價格目標。 ETH到六月「主導市場」的潛力將至關重要。

“Ethereum is about to dominate the market, you don’t want to miss this window,” Liu wrote. “Ethereum has been lagging behind Bitcoin this cycle, but that’s about to change. I believe ETH will shine in the next 6 months.”

「以太坊即將主導市場，你不想錯過這個窗口，」劉寫道。 「以太坊在這個週期中一直落後於比特幣，但這種情況即將改變。我相信 ETH 將在未來 6 個月內大放異彩。

Why Ethereum Could Outperform The Market

為什麼以太坊可以跑贏市場

Despite ETH’s growing adoption, Liu argues that its underperformance relative to Bitcoin stems from “institutional timing.” According to him:

儘管 ETH 的採用率不斷提高，但劉認為，相對於比特幣的表現不佳源自於「機構時機」。據他說：

“ETH is institutionally driven, unlike Bitcoin or retail-favored altcoins. ETFs provide stability and utility, making ETH ideal for institutional investors.”

「與比特幣或零售青睞的山寨幣不同，ETH 是由制度驅動的。 ETF 提供穩定性和實用性，使 ETH 成為機構投資者的理想選擇。

Liu suggests institutions have been waiting for market conditions to improve and sees 2025 as the year when these conditions finally align.

劉表示，機構一直在等待市場狀況改善，並認為 2025 年是這些條件最終趨於一致的一年。

Moreover, Liu points to the US Federal Reserve’s policy shifts as a catalyst for ETH’s growth. He notes that since May 2024, the Fed has slowed its balance sheet reductions, and a possible pivot toward renewed liquidity injections could occur after the January 29 or March 19 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

此外，劉指出聯準會的政策轉變是 ETH 成長的催化劑。他指出，自 2024 年 5 月以來，聯準會已經放緩了削減資產負債表的速度，並且在 1 月 29 日或 3 月 19 日聯邦公開市場委員會 (FOMC) 會議後可能會轉向重新註入流動性。

“Since May 2024, the Fed has slowed balance sheet reductions, signaling a pivot. A liquidity boost could follow Jan 29 or Mar 19 FOMC meetings. Why it matters: Fed liquidity pumps historically drive ETH/BTC higher.”

「自 2024 年 5 月以來，聯準會放緩了資產負債表縮減速度，發出了轉向的信號。 1 月 29 日或 3 月 19 日 FOMC 會議後可能會增加流動性。為什麼重要：從歷史上看，美聯儲的流動性泵會推動 ETH/BTC 走高。

He concludes that such a move by the Fed “means ETH outperformance” could be on the horizon.

他的結論是，聯準會的這項舉措「意味著 ETH 的表現可能即將出現」。

Citing a decade of market data, Liu claims ETH typically outperforms Bitcoin from January to June, while Bitcoin tends to lead from July to December. “From January to June, ETH consistently outperforms Bitcoin. … If you’re holding ETH, now until June is historically the best window for gains.”

Liu 引用了十年的市場數據，聲稱 ETH 通常在 1 月到 6 月期間跑贏比特幣，而比特幣在 7 月到 12 月往往領先。 「從 1 月到 6 月，ETH 的表現一直優於比特幣。 ……如果你持有 ETH，從現在到 6 月是歷史上最佳的獲利窗口。

Furthermore, Liu highlights potential pro-ETH sentiments from the Trump administration, referencing the former president’s NFT collections and DeFi platform built on Ethereum: “His NFT collections and DeFi platform are built on Ethereum. Trump’s administration plans to replace SEC leadership, revisiting anti-DeFi rulings. Institutional optimism surged after Trump’s election win in Nov 2024, driving ETF inflows.”

此外，劉強調了川普政府潛在的支持 ETH 的情緒，並提到了前總統基於以太坊構建的 NFT 系列和 DeFi 平台：「他的 NFT 系列和 DeFi 平台是基於以太坊構建的。川普政府計劃更換 SEC 領導層，重新審視反 DeFi 裁決。川普於 2024 年 11 月贏得大選後，機構樂觀情緒高漲，推動 ETF 資金流入。

He concludes that “pro-crypto policies will directly benefit Ethereum-focused DeFi.”

他的結論是，“支持加密貨幣的政策將直接有利於以以太坊為中心的 DeFi。”

Further emphasizing Ethereum’s institutional strength, Liu points to real-world asset (RWA) tokenization initiatives by major firms like BlackRock and prominent DeFi platforms such as AAVE, MakerDAO, and OriginTrail: “Ethereum isn’t leading meme coin or AI trends – it’s powering serious institutional growth.”

在進一步強調以太坊的機構實力時，Liu 指出了BlackRock 等大公司和AAVE、MakerDAO 和OriginTrail 等著名DeFi 平台的現實世界資產(RWA) 代幣化舉措：「以太坊並不是引領meme 幣或人工智慧趨勢，而是推動嚴重的製度成長。

Finally, Liu underscores a notable shift in Ethereum ETF inflows, which turned positive in November 2024 after a period of outflows: “ETFs added $6B in net inflows from Nov to Jan, or 0.76% of ETH supply/month. … Institutions are buying more ETH than BTC monthly, signaling growing confidence in Ethereum as an asset.”

最後，Liu 強調了以太坊ETF 流入量的顯著變化，經過一段時間的流出後，流入量於2024 年11 月轉為正值：「從11 月到1 月，ETF 淨流入增加了6B 美元，即每月ETH 供應量的0.76%。 ……機構每月購買的 ETH 多於 BTC，這表明人們對以太坊作為資產的信心不斷增強。

Projecting out to 2025, Liu believes ETH could quadruple to $14,000 if Bitcoin doubles to $200,000, citing Ethereum’s historical tendency to outperform Bitcoin by an additional factor of two: “If Bitcoin doubles to $200K, ETH could 4x to $14K, following its historical outperformance (2x on top of BTC). … While diminishing returns may limit upside, ETH remains a high-conviction bet for this cycle.”

預計到2025 年，Liu 認為，如果比特幣翻倍至20 萬美元，以太坊的價格可能會翻兩番，達到14,000 美元，並引用了以太坊歷史上表現優於比特幣兩倍的趨勢： 「如果比特幣翻倍至20 萬美元，以太坊的價格可能會翻四倍，達到1.4 萬美元，遵循其歷史記錄表現出色（是 BTC 的 2 倍）。 ……雖然收益遞減可能會限制上漲空間，但 ETH 仍然是本週期的一個高度可信的押注。

Summarizing his perspective, Liu stresses that a confluence of factors—from renewed Fed liquidity to potential pro-DeFi policies—creates a near-term window of opportunity for Ethereum: “With ETF inflows rising, the Fed’s potential liquidity injection, Trump’s pro-DeFi stance, and ETH’s seasonal strength, all the catalysts are aligned. … Ethereum’s time to shine is now until June. I’d rather be overexposed than miss this opportunity.”

在總結他的觀點時，Liu 強調，從聯準會重新註入流動性到潛在的支持DeFi 政策等因素的綜合作用，為以太坊創造了一個近期的機會窗口：「隨著ETF 流入的增加、聯準會潛在的流動性注入、川普的支持DeFi立場，以及 ETH 的季節性強勢，所有催化劑都是一致的。 ……以太坊大放異彩的時間從現在到六月。我寧願曝光過度，也不願錯過這個機會。

At press time, ETH trades at $106,929.

截至發稿時，ETH 交易價格為 106,929 美元。