Momentum 6 合伙人 Dennis Liu (@VirtualBacon0x) 表示，以太坊 (ETH) 可能会主导市场，到 2025 年将达到 14,000 美元

在今天（1 月 20 日）X 的帖子中，Momentum 6 的普通合伙人 Dennis Liu (@VirtualBacon0x) 对以太坊 (ETH) 做出了大胆的预测

A general partner at Momentum 6 is predicting that the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency will be able to reach a price target of $14,000 by the year 2025. In a thread on X today, January 20, Dennis Liu (@VirtualBacon0x) also contends that ETH’s potential to “dominate the market” through June will be pivotal.

Momentum 6 的一位普通合伙人预测，到 2025 年，全球第二大加密货币将能够达到 14,000 美元的价格目标。在今天（1 月 20 日）的 X 帖子中，Dennis Liu (@VirtualBacon0x) 还认为 ETH到六月份“主导市场”的潜力将至关重要。

“Ethereum is about to dominate the market, you don’t want to miss this window,” Liu wrote. “Ethereum has been lagging behind Bitcoin this cycle, but that’s about to change. I believe ETH will shine in the next 6 months.”

“以太坊即将主导市场，你不想错过这个窗口，”刘写道。 “以太坊在这个周期中一直落后于比特币，但这种情况即将改变。我相信 ETH 将在未来 6 个月内大放异彩。”

Why Ethereum Could Outperform The Market

为什么以太坊可以跑赢市场

Despite ETH’s growing adoption, Liu argues that its underperformance relative to Bitcoin stems from “institutional timing.” According to him:

尽管 ETH 的采用率不断提高，但刘认为，其相对于比特币的表现不佳源于“机构时机”。据他说：

“ETH is institutionally driven, unlike Bitcoin or retail-favored altcoins. ETFs provide stability and utility, making ETH ideal for institutional investors.”

“与比特币或零售青睐的山寨币不同，ETH 是由制度驱动的。 ETF 提供稳定性和实用性，使 ETH 成为机构投资者的理想选择。”

Liu suggests institutions have been waiting for market conditions to improve and sees 2025 as the year when these conditions finally align.

刘表示，机构一直在等待市场状况改善，并认为 2025 年是这些条件最终趋于一致的一年。

Moreover, Liu points to the US Federal Reserve’s policy shifts as a catalyst for ETH’s growth. He notes that since May 2024, the Fed has slowed its balance sheet reductions, and a possible pivot toward renewed liquidity injections could occur after the January 29 or March 19 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

此外，刘指出美联储的政策转变是 ETH 增长的催化剂。他指出，自 2024 年 5 月以来，美联储已经放缓了削减资产负债表的速度，并且在 1 月 29 日或 3 月 19 日联邦公开市场委员会 (FOMC) 会议后可能会转向重新注入流动性。

“Since May 2024, the Fed has slowed balance sheet reductions, signaling a pivot. A liquidity boost could follow Jan 29 or Mar 19 FOMC meetings. Why it matters: Fed liquidity pumps historically drive ETH/BTC higher.”

“自 2024 年 5 月以来，美联储放缓了资产负债表缩减速度，发出了转向的信号。 1 月 29 日或 3 月 19 日 FOMC 会议后可能会增加流动性。为什么重要：从历史上看，美联储的流动性泵会推动 ETH/BTC 走高。”

He concludes that such a move by the Fed “means ETH outperformance” could be on the horizon.

他的结论是，美联储的这一举措“意味着 ETH 的表现可能即将出现”。

Citing a decade of market data, Liu claims ETH typically outperforms Bitcoin from January to June, while Bitcoin tends to lead from July to December. “From January to June, ETH consistently outperforms Bitcoin. … If you’re holding ETH, now until June is historically the best window for gains.”

Liu 引用了十年的市场数据，声称 ETH 通常在 1 月到 6 月期间跑赢比特币，而比特币在 7 月到 12 月往往领先。 “从 1 月到 6 月，ETH 的表现一直优于比特币。 ......如果你持有 ETH，从现在到 6 月是历史上最佳的获利窗口。”

Furthermore, Liu highlights potential pro-ETH sentiments from the Trump administration, referencing the former president’s NFT collections and DeFi platform built on Ethereum: “His NFT collections and DeFi platform are built on Ethereum. Trump’s administration plans to replace SEC leadership, revisiting anti-DeFi rulings. Institutional optimism surged after Trump’s election win in Nov 2024, driving ETF inflows.”

此外，刘强调了特朗普政府潜在的支持 ETH 的情绪，并提到了前总统基于以太坊构建的 NFT 系列和 DeFi 平台：“他的 NFT 系列和 DeFi 平台是基于以太坊构建的。特朗普政府计划更换 SEC 领导层，重新审视反 DeFi 裁决。 2024 年 11 月特朗普赢得大选后，机构乐观情绪高涨，推动 ETF 资金流入。”

He concludes that “pro-crypto policies will directly benefit Ethereum-focused DeFi.”

他的结论是，“支持加密货币的政策将直接有利于以以太坊为中心的 DeFi。”

Further emphasizing Ethereum’s institutional strength, Liu points to real-world asset (RWA) tokenization initiatives by major firms like BlackRock and prominent DeFi platforms such as AAVE, MakerDAO, and OriginTrail: “Ethereum isn’t leading meme coin or AI trends – it’s powering serious institutional growth.”

在进一步强调以太坊的机构实力时，Liu 指出了 BlackRock 等大公司和 AAVE、MakerDAO 和 OriginTrail 等著名 DeFi 平台的现实世界资产 (RWA) 代币化举措：“以太坊并不是引领 meme 币或人工智能趋势，而是推动严重的制度增长。”

Finally, Liu underscores a notable shift in Ethereum ETF inflows, which turned positive in November 2024 after a period of outflows: “ETFs added $6B in net inflows from Nov to Jan, or 0.76% of ETH supply/month. … Institutions are buying more ETH than BTC monthly, signaling growing confidence in Ethereum as an asset.”

最后，Liu 强调了以太坊 ETF 流入量的显着变化，经过一段时间的流出后，流入量于 2024 年 11 月转为正值：“从 11 月到 1 月，ETF 净流入增加了 6B 美元，即每月 ETH 供应量的 0.76%。 ......机构每月购买的 ETH 多于 BTC，这表明人们对以太坊作为资产的信心不断增强。”

Projecting out to 2025, Liu believes ETH could quadruple to $14,000 if Bitcoin doubles to $200,000, citing Ethereum’s historical tendency to outperform Bitcoin by an additional factor of two: “If Bitcoin doubles to $200K, ETH could 4x to $14K, following its historical outperformance (2x on top of BTC). … While diminishing returns may limit upside, ETH remains a high-conviction bet for this cycle.”

预计到 2025 年，Liu 认为，如果比特币翻倍至 20 万美元，以太坊的价格可能会翻两番，达到 1.4 万美元，并引用了以太坊历史上表现优于比特币两倍的趋势：“如果比特币翻倍至 20 万美元，以太坊的价格可能会翻四倍，达到 1.4 万美元，遵循其历史记录表现出色（是 BTC 的 2 倍）。 ......虽然收益递减可能会限制上涨空间，但 ETH 仍然是本周期的一个高度可信的押注。”

Summarizing his perspective, Liu stresses that a confluence of factors—from renewed Fed liquidity to potential pro-DeFi policies—creates a near-term window of opportunity for Ethereum: “With ETF inflows rising, the Fed’s potential liquidity injection, Trump’s pro-DeFi stance, and ETH’s seasonal strength, all the catalysts are aligned. … Ethereum’s time to shine is now until June. I’d rather be overexposed than miss this opportunity.”

在总结他的观点时，Liu 强调，从美联储重新注入流动性到潜在的支持 DeFi 政策等因素的综合作用，为以太坊创造了一个近期的机会窗口：“随着 ETF 流入的增加、美联储潜在的流动性注入、特朗普的支持 DeFi立场，以及 ETH 的季节性强势，所有催化剂都是一致的。 ……以太坊大放异彩的时间从现在到六月。我宁愿曝光过度，也不愿错过这个机会。”

At press time, ETH trades at $106,929.

截至发稿时，ETH 交易价格为 106,929 美元。