Bitwise 首席投資長 Matt Hougan 最近將以太坊 (ETH) 稱為“區塊鏈微軟”,聲稱儘管面臨挑戰,但它們都不構成生存威脅。
A recent memo from Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan has likened Ethereum (ETH) to the ‘Microsoft of blockchains,’ asserting that despite facing challenges, none pose an existential threat to the cryptocurrency.
Bitwise 首席投資長 Matt Hougan 最近的一份備忘錄將以太坊(ETH)比作“區塊鏈領域的微軟”,聲稱儘管面臨挑戰,但沒有一個對加密貨幣構成生存威脅。
Hougan shared these thoughts in a memo titled ‘A Contrarian Bet on Ethereum,’ where he highlighted the declining ETH/BTC trading pair, which currently hovers at 0.038 — its lowest in three years.
Hougan 在一份題為「對以太坊的逆向押注」的備忘錄中分享了這些想法,其中他強調了 ETH/BTC 交易對的下跌,目前該交易對徘徊在 0.038——三年來的最低水平。
While other major digital currencies have shown significant performance in 2024, Ethereum has lagged behind. Bitcoin has surged 38%, Solana (SOL) has increased 31%, and Binance’s BNB token has seen a remarkable 72% rise. In contrast, Ethereum has remained largely stagnant, currently trading at $2,306.
雖然其他主要數位貨幣在 2024 年表現出色,但以太坊卻落後了。比特幣飆升了 38%,Solana (SOL) 上漲了 31%,幣安的 BNB 代幣上漲了 72%。相比之下,以太坊基本上保持停滯狀態,目前交易價格為 2,306 美元。
Hougan attributed this underperformance to several factors, including the potential election of Democratic US presidential candidate Kamala Harris, which could see the Biden administration’s cautious stance on crypto continue. Moreover, he highlighted rival blockchain projects like Solana, which offers higher throughput and lower transaction costs, posing a significant threat.
霍根將這種表現不佳歸因於幾個因素,包括美國民主黨總統候選人卡馬拉·哈里斯可能當選,這可能會導致拜登政府對加密貨幣的謹慎立場繼續下去。此外,他還強調了 Solana 等競爭對手的區塊鏈項目,該項目提供更高的吞吐量和更低的交易成本,構成了重大威脅。
He also noted that ETH exchange-traded funds have not seen the same success as Bitcoin ETFs, despite several Layer-2 solutions, such as Base, Arbitrum, and Optimism, thriving in the market. Their success has diverted a substantial amount of transaction volume from Ethereum, driving its revenues to a four-year low.
他還指出,儘管 Base、Arbitrum 和 Optimism 等多種 Layer-2 解決方案在市場上蓬勃發展,但 ETH 交易所交易基金尚未取得與比特幣 ETF 相同的成功。他們的成功從以太坊轉移了大量交易量,導致其收入跌至四年來的最低點。
However, Hougan argues that these concerns, while valid, fail to capture the broader and more critical context.
然而,霍根認為,這些擔憂雖然有效,但卻未能抓住更廣泛、更關鍵的背景。
He pointed out that blockchain applications enjoying widespread user adoption are primarily built on Ethereum. For instance, over 50% of stablecoins and more than 60% of decentralized finance (DeFi) assets are based on the Ethereum blockchain.
他指出,廣受用戶採用的區塊鏈應用程式主要建構在以太坊上。例如,超過 50% 的穩定幣和超過 60% 的去中心化金融(DeFi)資產都是基於以太坊區塊鏈。
Hougan expressed optimism regarding Ethereum’s future, highlighting sustained institutional interest in the cryptocurrency. For example, asset manager BlackRock is set to launch a tokenized money market on Ethereum this year, and Nike has chosen Ethereum to launch its Web 3 platform, Swoosh.
霍根對以太坊的未來表示樂觀,強調了機構對加密貨幣的持續興趣。例如,資產管理公司 BlackRock 計劃今年在以太坊上推出代幣化貨幣市場,而Nike則選擇以太坊來推出其 Web 3 平台 Swoosh。
He also noted Ethereum’s vast ecosystem, boasting the most active developers, the most engaged users, and a market cap five times larger than its closest competitor. Additionally, Ethereum has a unique standing in the regulatory landscape, with a thriving regulated futures market and a multi-billion-dollar ETF market.
他還指出了以太坊龐大的生態系統,擁有最活躍的開發人員、最活躍的用戶以及比其最接近的競爭對手大五倍的市值。此外,以太坊在監管領域擁有獨特的地位,擁有蓬勃發展的受監管期貨市場和價值數十億美元的 ETF 市場。
Drawing a parallel to Microsoft, Hougan argues that just as Microsoft remains a dominant force despite the presence of other tech companies offering specialized services, Ethereum maintains a similar standing in the blockchain world.
與微軟相比,Hougan 認為,儘管有其他提供專業服務的科技公司,微軟仍然是主導力量,以太坊在區塊鏈世界中也保持著類似的地位。
Concluding his memo, Hougan suggests that Ethereum’s potential could lead to a market sentiment shift as the November US presidential elections approach. Currently, ETH trades at $2,306, with a total market cap of $277 billion.
在他的備忘錄中,Hougan 表示,隨著 11 月美國總統大選的臨近,以太坊的潛力可能會導致市場情緒轉變。目前,ETH 交易價格為 2,306 美元,總市值為 2,770 億美元。