Bitwise 首席投资官 Matt Hougan 最近将以太坊 (ETH) 称为“区块链微软”,声称尽管面临挑战,但它们都不构成生存威胁。
A recent memo from Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan has likened Ethereum (ETH) to the ‘Microsoft of blockchains,’ asserting that despite facing challenges, none pose an existential threat to the cryptocurrency.
Bitwise 首席投资官 Matt Hougan 最近的一份备忘录将以太坊(ETH)比作“区块链领域的微软”,声称尽管面临挑战,但没有一个对加密货币构成生存威胁。
Hougan shared these thoughts in a memo titled ‘A Contrarian Bet on Ethereum,’ where he highlighted the declining ETH/BTC trading pair, which currently hovers at 0.038 — its lowest in three years.
Hougan 在一份题为“对以太坊的逆向押注”的备忘录中分享了这些想法,其中他强调了 ETH/BTC 交易对的下跌,目前该交易对徘徊在 0.038——三年来的最低水平。
While other major digital currencies have shown significant performance in 2024, Ethereum has lagged behind. Bitcoin has surged 38%, Solana (SOL) has increased 31%, and Binance’s BNB token has seen a remarkable 72% rise. In contrast, Ethereum has remained largely stagnant, currently trading at $2,306.
虽然其他主要数字货币在 2024 年表现出色,但以太坊却落后了。比特币飙升了 38%,Solana (SOL) 上涨了 31%,币安的 BNB 代币上涨了 72%。相比之下,以太坊基本保持停滞状态,目前交易价格为 2,306 美元。
Hougan attributed this underperformance to several factors, including the potential election of Democratic US presidential candidate Kamala Harris, which could see the Biden administration’s cautious stance on crypto continue. Moreover, he highlighted rival blockchain projects like Solana, which offers higher throughput and lower transaction costs, posing a significant threat.
霍根将这种表现不佳归因于几个因素,包括美国民主党总统候选人卡马拉·哈里斯可能当选,这可能会导致拜登政府对加密货币的谨慎立场继续下去。此外,他还强调了 Solana 等竞争对手的区块链项目,该项目提供更高的吞吐量和更低的交易成本,构成了重大威胁。
He also noted that ETH exchange-traded funds have not seen the same success as Bitcoin ETFs, despite several Layer-2 solutions, such as Base, Arbitrum, and Optimism, thriving in the market. Their success has diverted a substantial amount of transaction volume from Ethereum, driving its revenues to a four-year low.
他还指出,尽管 Base、Arbitrum 和 Optimism 等多种 Layer-2 解决方案在市场上蓬勃发展,但 ETH 交易所交易基金尚未取得与比特币 ETF 相同的成功。他们的成功从以太坊转移了大量交易量,导致其收入跌至四年来的最低点。
However, Hougan argues that these concerns, while valid, fail to capture the broader and more critical context.
然而,霍根认为,这些担忧虽然有效,但未能抓住更广泛、更关键的背景。
He pointed out that blockchain applications enjoying widespread user adoption are primarily built on Ethereum. For instance, over 50% of stablecoins and more than 60% of decentralized finance (DeFi) assets are based on the Ethereum blockchain.
他指出,受到广泛用户采用的区块链应用程序主要构建在以太坊上。例如,超过 50% 的稳定币和超过 60% 的去中心化金融(DeFi)资产都是基于以太坊区块链。
Hougan expressed optimism regarding Ethereum’s future, highlighting sustained institutional interest in the cryptocurrency. For example, asset manager BlackRock is set to launch a tokenized money market on Ethereum this year, and Nike has chosen Ethereum to launch its Web 3 platform, Swoosh.
霍根对以太坊的未来表示乐观,强调了机构对加密货币的持续兴趣。例如,资产管理公司 BlackRock 计划今年在以太坊上推出代币化货币市场,而耐克则选择以太坊来推出其 Web 3 平台 Swoosh。
He also noted Ethereum’s vast ecosystem, boasting the most active developers, the most engaged users, and a market cap five times larger than its closest competitor. Additionally, Ethereum has a unique standing in the regulatory landscape, with a thriving regulated futures market and a multi-billion-dollar ETF market.
他还指出了以太坊庞大的生态系统,拥有最活跃的开发人员、最活跃的用户以及比其最接近的竞争对手大五倍的市值。此外,以太坊在监管领域拥有独特的地位,拥有蓬勃发展的受监管期货市场和价值数十亿美元的 ETF 市场。
Drawing a parallel to Microsoft, Hougan argues that just as Microsoft remains a dominant force despite the presence of other tech companies offering specialized services, Ethereum maintains a similar standing in the blockchain world.
与微软相比,Hougan 认为,尽管存在其他提供专业服务的科技公司,微软仍然是主导力量,以太坊在区块链世界中也保持着类似的地位。
Concluding his memo, Hougan suggests that Ethereum’s potential could lead to a market sentiment shift as the November US presidential elections approach. Currently, ETH trades at $2,306, with a total market cap of $277 billion.
在他的备忘录中,Hougan 表示,随着 11 月美国总统大选的临近,以太坊的潜力可能会导致市场情绪发生转变。目前,ETH 交易价格为 2,306 美元,总市值为 2,770 亿美元。