随着加密货币市场为 2025 年潜在的牛市做好准备,分析师 IonicXBT 分享了他关于如何识别本周期比特币市场顶部的综合指南。
Analyst IonicXBT has shared a detailed guide on how to identify the Bitcoin market top in the current cycle, using the SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) metric.
分析师 IonicXBT 分享了如何使用 SOPR(支出产出利润率)指标来确定当前周期中比特币市场顶部的详细指南。
In a series of tweets, IonicXBT explained that the SOPR metric has consistently predicted the tops of previous crypto market cycles, such as in 2018 and 2021. The metric indicates whether the average investor in the Bitcoin market is selling their coins at a profit or loss at any given time.
IonicXBT 在一系列推文中解释说,SOPR 指标始终预测了之前的加密货币市场周期的顶部,例如 2018 年和 2021 年。该指标表明比特币市场的普通投资者是否以盈利或亏损的方式出售其代币在任何给定时间。
When the indicator is above 1, it signifies that the average holder in the sector is selling their coins at some profit. On the other hand, a value below this threshold implies that loss-selling is dominant among the participants.
当该指标高于 1 时,表明该行业的平均持有者正在出售其代币以获取一定的利润。另一方面,低于此阈值的值意味着亏损销售在参与者中占主导地位。
According to IonicXBT's analysis, the moving average SOPR for Bitcoin has dropped below 1.0, indicating that most spent outputs are being sold at a loss. He suggests that this decline in SOPR indicates that the bottom of the correction is near, while the market is not yet close.
根据 IonicXBT 的分析,比特币的移动平均 SOPR 已降至 1.0 以下,表明大部分已用产出正在亏本出售。他认为,SOPR 的下降表明修正的底部已接近,而市场尚未接近。
IonicXBT also highlighted the importance of remaining calm and focusing on the SOPR spikes, which he believes signal market tops as long-term holders lock in profits. He adds that he will be providing signals for identifying the market top, emphasizing real strategies backed by data rather than hype or speculation.
IonicXBT 还强调了保持冷静并关注 SOPR 峰值的重要性,他认为这标志着市场见顶,因为长期持有者锁定了利润。他补充说,他将提供识别市场顶部的信号,强调由数据支持的真实策略,而不是炒作或投机。
“But don’t worry, I’ll be the first to give you the signal of the top. No hype, no nonsense, Just real strategies backed by data,” the analyst noted in one of the tweets.
“不过别担心,我会第一个向你发出高层信号。没有炒作,没有废话,只有数据支持的真实策略,”该分析师在其中一条推文中指出。
While IonicXBT emphasizes the SOPR metric, other analysts have presented alternative indicators for predicting market tops. For instance, analyst Kaleo has shared an inverse Bitcoin chart suggesting that BTC could reach the trendline of his logarithmic growth curve by next year, potentially hitting a massive price target of around $220,000.
虽然 IonicXBT 强调 SOPR 指标,但其他分析师提出了预测市场顶部的替代指标。例如,分析师 Kaleo 分享了一张反向比特币图表,表明 BTC 可能会在明年达到其对数增长曲线的趋势线,有可能达到 22 万美元左右的巨大价格目标。
In a recent post, Kaleo expressed growing bullishness, adding, “Alright, I’m giving in. Be more bullish.” Analyzing the inverse chart, he suggests that Bitcoin tends to experience steep rallies a few months after its halving event, when BTC miner rewards are slashed in half.
在最近的一篇文章中,卡莱奥表达了越来越乐观的态度,并补充道,“好吧,我屈服了。更加乐观。”通过分析反向图表,他认为比特币往往会在减半事件发生几个月后经历大幅上涨,此时比特币矿工的奖励会减少一半。
Kaleo predicts that Bitcoin will consolidate for a few more days before initiating surges that break through multiple resistance levels. Based on the chart, he appears to be predicting that Bitcoin will reach new all-time highs by early next month. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $62,092, up over 3% for the day.
Kaleo 预测,比特币将在几天内盘整,然后开始突破多个阻力位。根据该图表,他似乎预测比特币将在下个月初达到新的历史高点。截至撰写本文时,比特币交易价格为 62,092 美元,当日上涨超过 3%。