隨著加密貨幣市場為 2025 年潛在的多頭市場做好準備,分析師 IonicXBT 分享了他關於如何識別本週期比特幣市場頂部的綜合指南。
Analyst IonicXBT has shared a detailed guide on how to identify the Bitcoin market top in the current cycle, using the SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) metric.
分析師 IonicXBT 分享如何使用 SOPR(支出產出利潤率)指標來確定當前週期中比特幣市場頂部的詳細指南。
In a series of tweets, IonicXBT explained that the SOPR metric has consistently predicted the tops of previous crypto market cycles, such as in 2018 and 2021. The metric indicates whether the average investor in the Bitcoin market is selling their coins at a profit or loss at any given time.
IonicXBT 在一系列推文中解釋說,SOPR 指標始終預測了先前的加密貨幣市場週期的頂部,例如2018 年和2021 年。幣在任何給定時間。
When the indicator is above 1, it signifies that the average holder in the sector is selling their coins at some profit. On the other hand, a value below this threshold implies that loss-selling is dominant among the participants.
當指標高於 1 時,表示該行業的平均持有者正在出售其代幣以獲取一定的利潤。另一方面,低於此閾值的值意味著虧損銷售在參與者中占主導地位。
According to IonicXBT's analysis, the moving average SOPR for Bitcoin has dropped below 1.0, indicating that most spent outputs are being sold at a loss. He suggests that this decline in SOPR indicates that the bottom of the correction is near, while the market is not yet close.
根據 IonicXBT 的分析,比特幣的移動平均 SOPR 已降至 1.0 以下,顯示大部分已用產出正在虧本出售。他認為,SOPR 的下降表明修正的底部已接近,而市場尚未接近。
IonicXBT also highlighted the importance of remaining calm and focusing on the SOPR spikes, which he believes signal market tops as long-term holders lock in profits. He adds that he will be providing signals for identifying the market top, emphasizing real strategies backed by data rather than hype or speculation.
IonicXBT 也強調了保持冷靜並關注 SOPR 高峰的重要性,他認為這標誌著市場見頂,因為長期持有者鎖定了利潤。他補充說,他將提供識別市場頂部的訊號,強調由數據支持的真實策略,而不是炒作或投機。
“But don’t worry, I’ll be the first to give you the signal of the top. No hype, no nonsense, Just real strategies backed by data,” the analyst noted in one of the tweets.
「不過別擔心,我會第一個向你發出高層訊號。沒有炒作,沒有廢話,只有數據支持的真實策略,」該分析師在其中一條推文中指出。
While IonicXBT emphasizes the SOPR metric, other analysts have presented alternative indicators for predicting market tops. For instance, analyst Kaleo has shared an inverse Bitcoin chart suggesting that BTC could reach the trendline of his logarithmic growth curve by next year, potentially hitting a massive price target of around $220,000.
雖然 IonicXBT 強調 SOPR 指標,但其他分析師提出了預測市場頂部的替代指標。例如,分析師 Kaleo 分享了一張反向比特幣圖表,表明 BTC 可能會在明年達到其對數成長曲線的趨勢線,有可能達到 22 萬美元左右的巨大價格目標。
In a recent post, Kaleo expressed growing bullishness, adding, “Alright, I’m giving in. Be more bullish.” Analyzing the inverse chart, he suggests that Bitcoin tends to experience steep rallies a few months after its halving event, when BTC miner rewards are slashed in half.
在最近的一篇文章中,卡萊奧表達了越來越樂觀的態度,並補充道,“好吧,我屈服了。更加樂觀。”透過分析反向圖表,他認為比特幣往往會在減半事件發生幾個月後經歷大幅上漲,此時比特幣礦工的獎勵會減少一半。
Kaleo predicts that Bitcoin will consolidate for a few more days before initiating surges that break through multiple resistance levels. Based on the chart, he appears to be predicting that Bitcoin will reach new all-time highs by early next month. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $62,092, up over 3% for the day.
Kaleo 預測,比特幣將在幾天內盤整,然後開始突破多個阻力位。根據該圖表,他似乎預測比特幣將在下個月初達到新的歷史高點。截至撰寫本文時,比特幣交易價格為 62,092 美元,當日上漲超過 3%。