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隨著美國總統大選的臨近,許多人都在猜測選舉結果將如何影響市場。然而,對於加密貨幣來說,誰獲勝可能並不重要。
As the U.S. presidential election draws closer, many are speculating on how the outcome will impact markets. However, for cryptocurrencies, it might not matter who wins.
隨著美國總統大選日益臨近,許多人都在猜測選舉結果將如何影響市場。然而,對於加密貨幣來說,誰獲勝可能並不重要。
According to financial experts, a massive “reflation” is on the horizon, driven by liquidity and global monetary policies, meaning that asset prices—including bitcoin—are likely to rise regardless of whether Donald Trump or Kamala Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA) (left) and President Donald Trump (R) at the second presidential debate at Belmont University on October 22, 2020 in Nashville, Tennessee. Photo by Alex Wong/Getty Images) takes the White House.
金融專家表示,在流動性和全球貨幣政策的推動下,大規模的「通貨再膨脹」即將到來,這意味著無論唐納德·特朗普還是卡馬拉參議員卡馬拉·哈里斯(D- CA),包括比特幣在內的資產價格都可能上漲。總統辯論上。攝影:Alex Wong/Getty Images)入主白宮。
Alex Kruger, founder of advisory firm Asgard, explained that with last week’s payroll numbers coming in strong and the U.S. Federal Reserve signaling future rate cuts, liquidity is expected to flood the market.
顧問公司Asgard的創辦人亞歷克斯·克魯格(Alex Kruger)解釋說,隨著上週的就業數據強勁,且聯準會暗示未來降息,預計流動性將湧入市場。
“Rate cuts are coming, liquidity is going to be flowing into the market,” Kruger said on the latest Bits + Bips podcast. He emphasized that this will lead to a broad “reflation” across various asset classes, with money moving out of short-term investments and into riskier options such as equities, bonds, and especially crypto.
克魯格在最新的 Bits + Bips 播客上表示:“降息即將到來,流動性將流入市場。”他強調,這將導致各種資產類別出現廣泛的“通貨再膨脹”,資金將從短期投資轉向股票、債券,尤其是加密貨幣等風險較高的選擇。
Kruger highlighted how this influx of liquidity will likely drive up the prices of almost all assets, from gold to crude oil, but that bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies could see especially significant gains.
克魯格強調,這種流動性的湧入可能會推高從黃金到原油等幾乎所有資產的價格,但比特幣和其他加密貨幣可能會出現特別顯著的漲幅。
“It means all assets go up,” he noted, explaining that the shift out of short-term money markets will benefit long-term investments, including crypto, which thrives in a low-rate environment.
「這意味著所有資產都會上漲,」他指出,並解釋說,短期貨幣市場的轉移將有利於長期投資,包括在低利率環境下蓬勃發展的加密貨幣。
On the podcast, Nikos Kargadouris, CIO of an investment firm specializing in macro and digital assets, added that there's approximately “$6 trillion sitting in money markets just waiting to pull the trigger.” This vast amount of cash is poised to flow into the markets, further boosting asset prices once conditions improve.
在播客中,一家專門從事宏觀和數位資產投資公司的首席資訊長 Nikos Kargadouris 補充道,“貨幣市場上大約有 6 兆美元等待扣動扳機。”一旦情況好轉,大量現金將流入市場,進一步推高資產價格。
“Historically, periods of global uncertainty, whether it's war or otherwise, you see a shift towards equities and growth assets,” Kargadouris said, suggesting that this trend could re-emerge in the near future.
卡加杜里斯表示:「從歷史上看,在全球不確定的時期,無論是戰爭還是其他原因,你都會看到股票和成長資產的轉變。」他暗示這種趨勢可能會在不久的將來重新出現。
Joe McCann, founder of crypto investment firm Asymmetric, noted that regardless of who wins the election, institutional investors are ready to pour money into the markets once the uncertainty clears.
加密貨幣投資公司 Asymmetry 的創辦人 Joe McCann 指出,無論誰贏得選舉,一旦不確定性消除,機構投資者都準備好向市場注入資金。
“No matter who wins, the view is that the market’s going higher,” McCann said. He also pointed out that Trump’s pro-crypto stance could further accelerate bitcoin’s rise.
「無論誰獲勝,市場都會走高,」麥肯說。他也指出,川普支持加密貨幣的立場可能會進一步加速比特幣的上漲。
Trump has thoroughly embraced cryptocurrencies in his campaign, accepting donations in crypto and proposing policies to turn the U.S. into a global Bitcoin (BTC) mining hub.
川普在競選活動中徹底擁抱了加密貨幣,接受加密貨幣捐贈,並提出將美國變成全球比特幣(BTC)挖礦中心的政策。
However, even with a Harris victory, bitcoin is expected to perform well in the long term. As Kruger pointed out, the broader trend of rate cuts and liquidity will still support asset prices.
然而,即使哈里斯獲勝,比特幣仍有望在長遠來看表現良好。正如克魯格指出的那樣,降息和流動性的更廣泛趨勢仍將支撐資產價格。
However, McCann suggested that under Harris, the rise in asset prices might move at a slower pace.
然而,麥肯表示,在哈里斯的領導下,資產價格的上漲速度可能會放緩。
“If it’s a Harris win, it’s probably more status quo, slower moving,” he explained, though the general upward direction would remain unchanged.
「如果哈里斯獲勝,可能會維持現狀,進展緩慢,」他解釋道,儘管總體上行方向將保持不變。
As Kruger summed it up, “The trajectory is very clear… both [Trump and Harris] are still going to have to do quantitative easing, they’re still going to have to cut rates.”
正如克魯格總結的那樣,“軌跡非常明確……(川普和哈里斯)仍然必須實行量化寬鬆,他們仍然必須降息。”
While the U.S. election will capture public attention, the real story for crypto markets is the impending flood of liquidity into global markets, which is likely to push bitcoin and other assets higher regardless of who wins the presidency.
雖然美國大選將引起大眾的關注,但加密貨幣市場的真正故事是流動性即將湧入全球市場,無論誰贏得總統寶座,這都可能推高比特幣和其他資產的價格。
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