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随着美国总统大选的临近,许多人都在猜测选举结果将如何影响市场。然而,对于加密货币来说,谁获胜可能并不重要。
As the U.S. presidential election draws closer, many are speculating on how the outcome will impact markets. However, for cryptocurrencies, it might not matter who wins.
随着美国总统大选日益临近,许多人都在猜测选举结果将如何影响市场。然而,对于加密货币来说,谁获胜可能并不重要。
According to financial experts, a massive “reflation” is on the horizon, driven by liquidity and global monetary policies, meaning that asset prices—including bitcoin—are likely to rise regardless of whether Donald Trump or Kamala Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA) (left) and President Donald Trump (R) at the second presidential debate at Belmont University on October 22, 2020 in Nashville, Tennessee. Photo by Alex Wong/Getty Images) takes the White House.
金融专家表示,在流动性和全球货币政策的推动下,大规模的“通货再膨胀”即将到来,这意味着无论唐纳德·特朗普还是卡马拉参议员卡马拉·哈里斯(D-CA),包括比特币在内的资产价格都可能上涨。 (左)和唐纳德·特朗普总统(右)于 2020 年 10 月 22 日在田纳西州纳什维尔举行的贝尔蒙特大学举行的第二场总统辩论上。摄影:Alex Wong/Getty Images)入主白宫。
Alex Kruger, founder of advisory firm Asgard, explained that with last week’s payroll numbers coming in strong and the U.S. Federal Reserve signaling future rate cuts, liquidity is expected to flood the market.
咨询公司Asgard的创始人亚历克斯·克鲁格(Alex Kruger)解释说,随着上周的就业数据强劲,且美联储暗示未来降息,预计流动性将涌入市场。
“Rate cuts are coming, liquidity is going to be flowing into the market,” Kruger said on the latest Bits + Bips podcast. He emphasized that this will lead to a broad “reflation” across various asset classes, with money moving out of short-term investments and into riskier options such as equities, bonds, and especially crypto.
克鲁格在最新的 Bits + Bips 播客上表示:“降息即将到来,流动性将流入市场。”他强调,这将导致各种资产类别出现广泛的“通货再膨胀”,资金将从短期投资转向股票、债券,尤其是加密货币等风险较高的选择。
Kruger highlighted how this influx of liquidity will likely drive up the prices of almost all assets, from gold to crude oil, but that bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies could see especially significant gains.
克鲁格强调,这种流动性的涌入可能会推高从黄金到原油等几乎所有资产的价格,但比特币和其他加密货币可能会出现特别显着的涨幅。
“It means all assets go up,” he noted, explaining that the shift out of short-term money markets will benefit long-term investments, including crypto, which thrives in a low-rate environment.
“这意味着所有资产都会上涨,”他指出,并解释说,短期货币市场的转移将有利于长期投资,包括在低利率环境下蓬勃发展的加密货币。
On the podcast, Nikos Kargadouris, CIO of an investment firm specializing in macro and digital assets, added that there's approximately “$6 trillion sitting in money markets just waiting to pull the trigger.” This vast amount of cash is poised to flow into the markets, further boosting asset prices once conditions improve.
在播客中,一家专门从事宏观和数字资产投资公司的首席信息官 Nikos Kargadouris 补充道,“货币市场上大约有 6 万亿美元等待扣动扳机。”一旦情况改善,大量现金将流入市场,进一步推高资产价格。
“Historically, periods of global uncertainty, whether it's war or otherwise, you see a shift towards equities and growth assets,” Kargadouris said, suggesting that this trend could re-emerge in the near future.
卡加杜里斯表示:“从历史上看,在全球不确定的时期,无论是战争还是其他原因,你都会看到股票和成长型资产的转变。”他暗示这种趋势可能会在不久的将来重新出现。
Joe McCann, founder of crypto investment firm Asymmetric, noted that regardless of who wins the election, institutional investors are ready to pour money into the markets once the uncertainty clears.
加密货币投资公司 Asymmetry 的创始人 Joe McCann 指出,无论谁赢得选举,一旦不确定性消除,机构投资者都准备好向市场注入资金。
“No matter who wins, the view is that the market’s going higher,” McCann said. He also pointed out that Trump’s pro-crypto stance could further accelerate bitcoin’s rise.
“无论谁获胜,市场都会走高,”麦肯说。他还指出,特朗普支持加密货币的立场可能会进一步加速比特币的上涨。
Trump has thoroughly embraced cryptocurrencies in his campaign, accepting donations in crypto and proposing policies to turn the U.S. into a global Bitcoin (BTC) mining hub.
特朗普在竞选中彻底拥抱了加密货币,接受加密货币捐赠,并提出将美国变成全球比特币(BTC)挖矿中心的政策。
However, even with a Harris victory, bitcoin is expected to perform well in the long term. As Kruger pointed out, the broader trend of rate cuts and liquidity will still support asset prices.
然而,即使哈里斯获胜,比特币从长远来看仍有望表现良好。正如克鲁格指出的那样,降息和流动性的更广泛趋势仍将支撑资产价格。
However, McCann suggested that under Harris, the rise in asset prices might move at a slower pace.
然而,麦肯表示,在哈里斯的领导下,资产价格的上涨速度可能会放缓。
“If it’s a Harris win, it’s probably more status quo, slower moving,” he explained, though the general upward direction would remain unchanged.
“如果哈里斯获胜,可能会维持现状,进展缓慢,”他解释道,尽管总体上行方向将保持不变。
As Kruger summed it up, “The trajectory is very clear… both [Trump and Harris] are still going to have to do quantitative easing, they’re still going to have to cut rates.”
正如克鲁格总结的那样,“轨迹非常明确……(特朗普和哈里斯)仍然必须实行量化宽松,他们仍然必须降息。”
While the U.S. election will capture public attention, the real story for crypto markets is the impending flood of liquidity into global markets, which is likely to push bitcoin and other assets higher regardless of who wins the presidency.
虽然美国大选将引起公众的关注,但加密货币市场的真正故事是流动性即将涌入全球市场,无论谁赢得总统宝座,这都可能推高比特币和其他资产的价格。
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