隨著國家尋求替代綠背的替代方案，美元的統治地位正面臨越來越大的審查

儘管該國約佔全球GDP的25％，但其貨幣佔全球外匯儲備的近60％。

The US dollar has long reigned as the world’s primary reserve currency and the default choice for global trade and international transactions. But its dominance is now facing growing scrutiny as shifting geopolitical and economic forces—and concerns over the potential weaponization of the greenback—push more countries to accelerate efforts to loosen their dependence on the dollar.

美元長期以來一直是全球主要儲備貨幣以及全球貿易和國際交易的默認選擇。但是，隨著改變地緣政治和經濟力量的轉移以及對綠背的潛在武器化的關注，它的主導地位正面臨著越來越多的審查。

By almost every measure, the US dollar’s command of the global economy is staggering. Although the country accounts for roughly 25% of global GDP, its currency reigns over nearly 60% of global foreign exchange reserves—far outpacing its nearest rival, the euro.

幾乎每種措施，美元對全球經濟的指揮都令人震驚。儘管該國約佔全球GDP的25％，但其貨幣佔全球外匯儲備的近60％，超過其最近的競爭對手歐元。

But this dominance is increasingly under pressure, with the strategic use of economic sanctions in the past leading some countries to seek alternatives, even as US President Donald Trump regularly threatens 100% tariffs on countries that actively try to substitute the greenback.

但是，這種統治地位越來越在壓力下，因為過去的經濟制裁戰略利用經濟制裁導致某些國家尋求替代方案，即使美國總統唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）經常威脅到積極試圖代替綠背的國家100％關稅。

In Russia, whose access to the SWIFT payment platform is crippled by sanctions, companies have been using cryptocurrencies as a means to skirt restrictions, turning to Bitcoin and other digital assets to conduct cross-border business. While crypto was barred as illegal by the country's central bank years ago, recent changes to the regulation have paved the way for corporations to embrace cryptocurrencies since late last year.

在俄羅斯，俄羅斯的訪問Swift支付平台被制裁所削弱，公司一直在使用加密貨幣作為限制限制的手段，轉向比特幣和其他數字資產進行跨境業務。幾年前，加密貨幣被該國中央銀行被禁止為非法，但該法規的最新變化為公司以來，自去年年底以來就為接受加密貨幣鋪平了道路。

The country permitted the use of cryptocurrencies in foreign trade and has taken steps to make it legal to mine cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin.

該國允許在外貿中使用加密貨幣，並採取了措施使包括比特幣在內的加密貨幣合法。

Bitcoin, sanctions and the push for dedollarization

比特幣，制裁和推動脫衣化的推動力

Since Bitcoin's inception, crypto advocates have been fixated on "dedollarization," often described as the push to reduce the US dollar's dominance as the global reserve currency. The term broadly refers to moving away from the dollar in key financial and trade activities, including oil and commodity transactions (the petrodollar system), foreign exchange reserves, bilateral trade agreements, and investments in dollar-denominated assets.

自比特幣的成立以來，加密宣言一直被固定在“ dedolarization”上，通常被描述為減少美元作為全球儲備貨幣的統治地位的推動力。該術語廣泛地指在關鍵的金融和貿易活動中偏離美元，包括石油和商品交易（石油公司），外匯儲備，雙邊貿易協定以及以美元計價的資產進行投資。

A 2024 paper by Morgan Stanley's head of Digital Asset Markets, Andrew Peel, suggested that the rise of digital currencies presents "opportunities to both erode and reinforce" the US dollar's dominance, with the potential to significantly alter the global currency landscape.

摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）的數字資產市場負責人安德魯·皮爾（Andrew Peel）的一份2024年的論文表明，數字貨幣的上升為“侵蝕和增強的機會”提出了美元的統治地位，有可能顯著改變全球貨幣景觀。

Still, while digital assets—most notably stablecoins— are increasingly gaining traction, the crypto market's dedollarization expectations look premature.

儘管如此，儘管數字資產（尤其是穩定的資產）越來越多地吸引人，但加密市場的脫髮期望看起來還為時過早。

While Bitcoin is increasingly seen as a strategic reserve asset, experts caution that it's still too soon to call it a true alternative to the US dollar. Countries like El Salvador have embraced Bitcoin aggressively, with the asset now making up about 15% to 20% of the nation's total reserves. The US has reportedly considered similar moves, but widespread adoption remains limited, and questions persist about whether such steps would undermine the dollar rather than support it.

儘管比特幣越來越被視為一種戰略儲備資產，但專家警告說，將其稱為美元的真正替代方案還為時過早。像薩爾瓦多（El Salvador）這樣的國家已經積極接受比特幣，現在資產約佔該國總儲量的15％至20％。據報導，美國已經考慮了類似的舉動，但是廣泛採用仍然有限，並且有關這種步驟是否會破壞美元而不是支持這一步驟的問題。

According to Bitcoin Depot CEO Brandon Mintz,

根據比特幣倉庫首席執行官布蘭登·明茲（Brandon Mintz）的說法

Currently, Bitcoin acts more like a hedge and a store of value than a dollar replacement, but its role could shift as global financial dynamics evolve. Factors like inflation and geopolitical tensions, Mintz said, could drive more interest.

目前，比特幣的行為更像是對沖和價值的儲存，而不是一美元的替代品，但是隨著全球金融動態的發展，其作用可能會改變。明茨說，通貨膨脹和地緣政治緊張局勢等因素可能會引起更多的興趣。

While institutional adoption and cross-border use are on the rise, Mintz said that it remains to be seen “whether Bitcoin can genuinely challenge the dominance of the dollar as this will depend on how these trends develop over time.”

Mintz表示，儘管機構採用和跨境使用正在上升，但仍有待觀察的是：“比特幣能否真正挑戰美元的主導地位，因為這將取決於這些趨勢隨著時間的流逝的發展。”

Related: 3 reasons why Bitcoin sells off on Trump tariff news

相關：比特幣在特朗普關稅新聞上售出的3個原因

Despite its growing appeal, Bitcoin's volatility remains a significant challenge. According to the World Gold Council, Bitcoin exhibits considerably higher volatility than gold and shows a greater correlation with Nasdaq tech stocks than with traditional safe-haven assets.

儘管吸引人的吸引力越來越大，但比特幣的波動仍然是一個重大挑戰。根據世界黃金委員會的數據，比特幣的波動性比黃金高得多，並且與納斯達克技術股票的相關性比傳統的避風港資產更大。

Gold and major asset 5-year average daily volatility - annualized. Source: World Gold Council.

黃金和主要資產5年平均每日波動率 - 年化。資料來源：世界黃金委員會。

Eswar Prasad, a trade professor at Cornell University, told Cointelegraph,

康奈爾大學的貿易教授Eswar Prasad告訴Cointelegraph，

US dollar global foreign reserves decline

美元全球外國儲量下降

Since the end of World War II, the US dollar has reigned as the world’s dominant currency, powering around 88% of global trade transactions in 2024.

自第二次世界大戰結束以來，美元統治為全球的主要貨幣，在2024年為全球貿易交易的88％供電。

The dollar’s status as the leading international currency is well-established. According to the International Monetary Fund, as of the third quarter of 2024, central banks held about 58 percent of their allocated reserves in US dollars—much of it in cash and US bonds. This is significantly higher than the euro, second in the race, which accounts for as much as 20 of allocated foreign exchange reserves.

美元作為領先的國際貨幣的地位是良好的。根據國際貨幣基金的數據，截至2024年第三季度，中央銀行以美元和美國債券的價格持有約58％的分配儲量，其中包括現金和美國債券。這顯著高於歐元，第二次比賽中的第二個分配的外匯儲備。

Allocated foreign exchange reserves by central banks. Source: International Monetary Fund

中央銀行分配的外匯儲備。資料來源：國際貨幣基金

While the US dollar remains the dominant global currency due to its stability, widespread acceptance in international trade and finance, and status as a key reserve asset for central banks, there are signs that its reign may be waning. The percentage of global foreign exchange reserves held in dollars has diminished from over 70% in the early 2000s to below 60%.

儘管美元由於其穩定性，在國際貿易和金融方面的廣泛接受以及作為中央銀行的主要儲備資產的地位而成為全球貨幣，但有跡象表明其統治可能正在減弱。以美元持有的全球外匯儲備的百分比從2000年代初的70％降至低於60％。

Percentage of global FX reserves held in US dollars. Source: International Monetary Fund

以美元為單位的全球FX儲備的百分比。資料來源：國際貨幣基金

The turning point came after February 2022 when the US froze $

轉折點是在2022年2月之後的美國凍結$