Dogecoin（Doge）的價格下跌會超過$ 0.20電阻並繼續其上升趨勢嗎？

Dogecoin（Doge）是一種流行的基於模因的加密貨幣，最近幾周顯示出了新的強度。

Dogecoin price has shown resilience in recent weeks, but key market metrics suggest that its next move will depend largely on breaking through the $0.20 resistance.

Dogecoin的價格在最近幾周顯示出彈性，但主要市場指標表明，其下一步行動將在很大程度上取決於打破0.20美元的電阻。

According to Glassnode's UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD), approximately 7% of DOGE's total supply is clustered at $0.20.

根據GlassNode的UTXO意識到的價格分配（URPD），Doge總供應量的大約7％集群為0.20美元。

This level is likely to provide strong resistance as many investors who bought at this price may look to sell to break even. Notably, inflows at this price point started increasing around January 22.

由於許多以這個價格購買的投資者可能會出售甚至打破，因此這個水平可能會提供強烈的抵抗。值得注意的是，這個價格點的流入開始在1月22日左右上升。

This suggests that a considerable number of wallets accumulated DOGE at this cost basis. While some holders might have purchased at lower prices and averaged up, the presence of substantial supply at $0.20 poses a challenge for bullish momentum.

這表明，以此費用為基礎，大量的錢包累積了。儘管一些持有人可能以較低的價格購買並平均購買，但$ 0.20的大量供應的存在對看漲勢頭構成了挑戰。

The URPD chart also shows that the next significant supply cluster is between $0.20 and $0.31. This means that if DOGE manages to break through $0.20 with strong buying volume, it could experience a sharp rally toward $0.31 due to the relative lack of supply in these price ranges.

URPD圖表還顯示，下一個重大供應集群在0.20美元至0.31美元之間。這意味著，如果Doge設法通過強勁的購買量中斷了0.20美元，則由於這些價格範圍相對缺乏供應，它可能會急劇升至0.31美元。

Another key on-chain metric offering insights into Dogecoin's market sentiment is Glassnode's HODL Waves chart. This metric tracks the age distribution of held coins, which can help identify periods of strong buying or selling pressure.

另一個關鍵的鍊鍊度量，提供對Dogecoin市場情緒的見解是GlassNode的Hodl Wave圖表。該度量標準跟踪了持有硬幣的年齡分佈，這可以幫助確定強大的買賣壓力的時期。

Currently, the data shows that 15% of Dogecoin's supply was last moved between six and twelve months ago. This suggests that a substantial number of holders accumulated DOGE ahead of the November-December 2024 rally and have held onto their positions.

目前，數據表明，Dogecoin的供應量的15％是在六到十二個月前移動的。這表明，在2024年11月至124年12月至124年的集會之前，大量的持有人積累了大約，並一直擔任其職位。

This long-term holding behavior indicates strong conviction among investors, as they are willing to hold their coins despite price fluctuations. However, the HODL Waves chart also shows that the 3-6 month cohort has grown recently.

這種長期的保留行為表明投資者的堅定信念，因為儘管價格波動，他們仍願意持有硬幣。但是，HODL Waves圖還表明，最近3-6個月的隊列已經發展。

This might indicate newer entrants joining the market since the January rebound, when DOGE climbed from $0.32 to $0.41. If DOGE approaches these higher levels again, some of these holders might sell to secure profits or break even, which could act as a limiting factor for further gains.

這可能表明自一月反彈以來，新的參賽者加入了市場，當時Doge從0.32美元上升到0.41美元。如果Doge再次接近這些較高的水平，其中一些持有人可能會出售以獲得利潤或破損，這可能是進一步收益的限制因素。

While Dogecoin's price action is showing bullish signs, the derivatives market presents a different picture. Unlike past rallies fueled by speculative trading, the current uptrend appears to be driven by spot demand.

儘管Dogecoin的價格動作顯示了看漲的跡象，但衍生品市場卻顯示了不同的情況。與過去的投機交易所助長的過去集會不同，當前的上升趨勢似乎是由現貨需求驅動的。

Data from the futures market shows that Dogecoin's Open Interest (OI) remains significantly lower than its peak levels. At the time of writing, DOGE's OI stands at around $1 billion, which is far below the $3 billion average seen during the highs of 2024. This suggests that leveraged traders are not aggressively participating in the current move.

期貨市場的數據表明，多黴素的開放興趣（OI）仍然大大低於其峰值水平。在撰寫本文時，Doge的OI約有10億美元，遠低於2024年高點的平均水平30億美元。這表明槓桿交易者沒有積極參與當前的舉動。

Additionally, the 7-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of Futures volume is rising gradually but remains at levels last seen in October 2024. This indicates that while interest in DOGE futures is increasing, it is not reaching the speculative frenzy seen in past bull runs.

此外，期貨量的7天簡單移動平均值（SMA）逐漸上升，但仍處於2024年10月的最後水平。這表明，儘管對Doge Futures的興趣正在增加，但它並未達到過去的Bull跑步中看到的投機性瘋狂。

Another critical metric supporting the argument for a spot-driven rally is the Futures Funding Rate. This indicator, which measures the cost of holding long positions in perpetual contracts, has fallen to nearly neutral levels. A lack of aggressive long positioning suggests that the recent price appreciation is being driven more by organic demand in the spot market.

支持現場驅動的集會論點的另一個關鍵指標是期貨融資率。該指標衡量了永久合同中長期頭寸的成本，已經降至幾乎中立的水平。缺乏侵略性的長期定位表明，最近的價格欣賞是由現貨市場中的有機需求驅動的。

As of now, Dogecoin is trading at $0.195, slightly up on the day and remaining above the 50-day Moving Average of $0.182. From a technical perspective, this suggests that DOGE is still in a short-term uptrend.

截至目前，Dogecoin的交易價格為0.195美元，在當天略有上漲，並保持超過50天的移動平均值0.182美元。從技術角度來看，這表明Doge仍處於短期上升趨勢。

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently standing at 63.05, indicating moderate bullish momentum without being in overbought territory. However, the price action is now encountering a critical test just below the $0.20 resistance.

相對強度指數（RSI）目前處於63.05的狀態，表明中度的看漲勢頭，而沒有處於過多的領土上。但是，現在的價格動作正在遇到低於0.20美元電阻的關鍵測試。

If DOGE manages to break through this level with significant volume, it could trigger a rapid rally toward $0.31. This is due to the absence of major supply barriers in these price ranges, as indicated by Glassnode's UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD).

如果Doge設法以大量的數量突破了這一水平，則可能會觸發迅速的集會到0.31美元。這是由於這些價格範圍內沒有主要的供應障礙，如GlassNode的UTXO實現的價格分佈（URPD）所示。

On the downside, if Dogecoin fails to sustain its push above $0.20, it could face a retracement back toward the $0.17 support level. This is the lower boundary of the recent accumulation zone, which might attract buyers on any dips.

不利的一面是，如果Dogecoin無法將其推向超過0.20美元，則可能會返回$ 0.17的支持水平。這是最近累積區的下邊界，它可能會吸引任何傾斜的買家。

Given the importance of this resistance, traders and investors will be closely watching to see whether bulls can overcome it and propel DOGE toward the next resistance cluster between $0.25 and $0.30, or if sellers manage to defend this crucial price point.

鑑於這種抵抗的重要性，交易者和投資者將密切關注公牛是否可以克服它，並推動下一個抵抗力集群在0.25美元至0.30美元之間，或者如果賣方設法捍衛這個關鍵的價格點。

The near-term future of Dogecoin will depend largely on its ability to break above the critical $0.20 resistance level.

Dogecoin的近期未來將在很大程度上取決於其超過0.20美元阻力水平的能力。

The on-chain and derivative data suggest that the current rally is being driven by organic demand rather than speculative hype, which could bode well for sustainable growth

鍊和衍生數據的數據表明，當前的集會是由有機需求而不是投機性炒作驅動的，這可能是可持續增長的好兆頭