Dogecoin（Doge）的价格下跌会超过$ 0.20电阻并继续其上升趋势吗？

Dogecoin（Doge）是一种流行的基于模因的加密货币，最近几周显示出了新的强度。

Dogecoin price has shown resilience in recent weeks, but key market metrics suggest that its next move will depend largely on breaking through the $0.20 resistance.

Dogecoin的价格在最近几周显示出弹性，但主要市场指标表明，其下一步行动将在很大程度上取决于打破0.20美元的电阻。

According to Glassnode's UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD), approximately 7% of DOGE's total supply is clustered at $0.20.

根据GlassNode的UTXO意识到的价格分配（URPD），Doge总供应量的大约7％集群为0.20美元。

This level is likely to provide strong resistance as many investors who bought at this price may look to sell to break even. Notably, inflows at this price point started increasing around January 22.

由于许多以这个价格购买的投资者可能会出售甚至打破，因此这个水平可能会提供强烈的抵抗。值得注意的是，这个价格点的流入开始在1月22日左右上升。

This suggests that a considerable number of wallets accumulated DOGE at this cost basis. While some holders might have purchased at lower prices and averaged up, the presence of substantial supply at $0.20 poses a challenge for bullish momentum.

这表明，以此费用为基础，大量的钱包累积了。尽管一些持有人可能以较低的价格购买并平均购买，但$ 0.20的大量供应的存在对看涨势头构成了挑战。

The URPD chart also shows that the next significant supply cluster is between $0.20 and $0.31. This means that if DOGE manages to break through $0.20 with strong buying volume, it could experience a sharp rally toward $0.31 due to the relative lack of supply in these price ranges.

URPD图表还显示，下一个重大供应集群在0.20美元至0.31美元之间。这意味着，如果Doge设法通过强劲的购买量中断了0.20美元，则由于这些价格范围相对缺乏供应，它可能会急剧升至0.31美元。

Another key on-chain metric offering insights into Dogecoin's market sentiment is Glassnode's HODL Waves chart. This metric tracks the age distribution of held coins, which can help identify periods of strong buying or selling pressure.

另一个关键的链链度量，提供对Dogecoin市场情绪的见解是GlassNode的Hodl Wave图表。该度量标准跟踪了持有硬币的年龄分布，这可以帮助确定强大的买卖压力的时期。

Currently, the data shows that 15% of Dogecoin's supply was last moved between six and twelve months ago. This suggests that a substantial number of holders accumulated DOGE ahead of the November-December 2024 rally and have held onto their positions.

目前，数据表明，Dogecoin的供应量的15％是在六到十二个月前移动的。这表明，在2024年11月至124年12月至124年的集会之前，大量的持有人积累了大约，并一直担任其职位。

This long-term holding behavior indicates strong conviction among investors, as they are willing to hold their coins despite price fluctuations. However, the HODL Waves chart also shows that the 3-6 month cohort has grown recently.

这种长期的保留行为表明投资者的坚定信念，因为尽管价格波动，他们仍愿意持有硬币。但是，HODL Waves图还表明，最近3-6个月的队列已经发展。

This might indicate newer entrants joining the market since the January rebound, when DOGE climbed from $0.32 to $0.41. If DOGE approaches these higher levels again, some of these holders might sell to secure profits or break even, which could act as a limiting factor for further gains.

这可能表明自一月反弹以来，新的参赛者加入了市场，当时Doge从0.32美元上升到0.41美元。如果Doge再次接近这些较高的水平，其中一些持有人可能会出售以获得利润或破损，这可能是进一步收益的限制因素。

While Dogecoin's price action is showing bullish signs, the derivatives market presents a different picture. Unlike past rallies fueled by speculative trading, the current uptrend appears to be driven by spot demand.

尽管Dogecoin的价格动作显示了看涨的迹象，但衍生品市场却显示了不同的情况。与过去的投机交易所助长的过去集会不同，当前的上升趋势似乎是由现货需求驱动的。

Data from the futures market shows that Dogecoin's Open Interest (OI) remains significantly lower than its peak levels. At the time of writing, DOGE's OI stands at around $1 billion, which is far below the $3 billion average seen during the highs of 2024. This suggests that leveraged traders are not aggressively participating in the current move.

期货市场的数据表明，多霉素的开放兴趣（OI）仍然大大低于其峰值水平。在撰写本文时，Doge的OI约有10亿美元，远低于2024年高点的平均水平30亿美元。这表明杠杆交易者没有积极参与当前的举动。

Additionally, the 7-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of Futures volume is rising gradually but remains at levels last seen in October 2024. This indicates that while interest in DOGE futures is increasing, it is not reaching the speculative frenzy seen in past bull runs.

此外，期货量的7天简单移动平均值（SMA）逐渐上升，但仍处于2024年10月的最后水平。这表明，尽管对Doge Futures的兴趣正在增加，但它并未达到过去的Bull跑步中看到的投机性疯狂。

Another critical metric supporting the argument for a spot-driven rally is the Futures Funding Rate. This indicator, which measures the cost of holding long positions in perpetual contracts, has fallen to nearly neutral levels. A lack of aggressive long positioning suggests that the recent price appreciation is being driven more by organic demand in the spot market.

支持现场驱动的集会论点的另一个关键指标是期货融资率。该指标衡量了永久合同中长期头寸的成本，已经降至几乎中立的水平。缺乏侵略性的长期定位表明，最近的价格欣赏是由现货市场中的有机需求驱动的。

As of now, Dogecoin is trading at $0.195, slightly up on the day and remaining above the 50-day Moving Average of $0.182. From a technical perspective, this suggests that DOGE is still in a short-term uptrend.

截至目前，Dogecoin的交易价格为0.195美元，在当天略有上涨，并保持超过50天的移动平均值0.182美元。从技术角度来看，这表明Doge仍处于短期上升趋势。

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently standing at 63.05, indicating moderate bullish momentum without being in overbought territory. However, the price action is now encountering a critical test just below the $0.20 resistance.

相对强度指数（RSI）目前处于63.05的状态，表明中度的看涨势头，而没有处于过多的领土上。但是，现在的价格动作正在遇到低于0.20美元电阻的关键测试。

If DOGE manages to break through this level with significant volume, it could trigger a rapid rally toward $0.31. This is due to the absence of major supply barriers in these price ranges, as indicated by Glassnode's UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD).

如果Doge设法以大量的数量突破了这一水平，则可能会触发迅速的集会到0.31美元。这是由于这些价格范围内没有主要的供应障碍，如GlassNode的UTXO实现的价格分布（URPD）所示。

On the downside, if Dogecoin fails to sustain its push above $0.20, it could face a retracement back toward the $0.17 support level. This is the lower boundary of the recent accumulation zone, which might attract buyers on any dips.

不利的一面是，如果Dogecoin无法将其推向超过0.20美元，则可能会返回$ 0.17的支持水平。这是最近累积区的下边界，它可能会吸引任何倾斜的买家。

Given the importance of this resistance, traders and investors will be closely watching to see whether bulls can overcome it and propel DOGE toward the next resistance cluster between $0.25 and $0.30, or if sellers manage to defend this crucial price point.

鉴于这种抵抗的重要性，交易者和投资者将密切关注公牛是否可以克服它，并推动下一个抵抗力集群在0.25美元至0.30美元之间，或者如果卖方设法捍卫这个关键的价格点。

The near-term future of Dogecoin will depend largely on its ability to break above the critical $0.20 resistance level.

Dogecoin的近期未来将在很大程度上取决于其超过0.20美元阻力水平的能力。

The on-chain and derivative data suggest that the current rally is being driven by organic demand rather than speculative hype, which could bode well for sustainable growth

链和衍生数据的数据表明，当前的集会是由有机需求而不是投机性炒作驱动的，这可能是可持续增长的好兆头