SEC 審查和市場考慮導致以太坊 ETF 前景黯淡

最近發生的事件，包括 SEC 的調查，已將現貨以太坊 ETF 獲得批准的可能性降低至 25%。行業專家認為，延遲可能是有益的，因為它將使傳統金融適應加密貨幣。美國證券交易委員會缺乏溝通以及以太坊作為證券分類的複雜性進一步加劇了悲觀的前景。

Ethereum ETF Approval Prospects Dwindle Amid SEC Scrutiny and Market Dynamics

以太坊 ETF 批准前景因 SEC 審查和市場動態而減弱

Washington, D.C. - The likelihood of a spot Ethereum Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) being approved before the May 23rd deadline has plummeted to a mere 25%, according to industry experts. This pessimistic outlook stems from a confluence of factors, including a recent SEC investigation and the market's perceived readiness for such a product.

華盛頓特區 - 據行業專家稱，現貨以太坊交易所交易基金 (ETF) 在 5 月 23 日截止日期之前獲得批准的可能性已降至僅 25%。這種悲觀的前景源於多種因素，包括美國證券交易委員會最近的一項調查以及市場對此類產品的準備。

Regulatory Uncertainty Looms

監理不確定性迫在眉睫

The SEC's subpoena of the Ethereum Foundation regarding the classification of Ethereum as a security has cast a shadow of doubt over the immediate prospects of an ETF approval. The SEC's stance on Ethereum's status has been historically complex, with former Corporation Finance Director William Hinman declaring in 2018 that it was not a security. However, current Chairman Gary Gensler has indicated that Proof-of-Stake (PoS) tokens could fall under the purview of securities law, albeit without explicitly mentioning Ethereum.

美國證券交易委員會就以太坊作為證券的分類向以太坊基金會發出傳票，這給 ETF 批准的近期前景蒙上了一層疑慮。歷史上，美國證券交易委員會對以太坊地位的立場很複雜，前公司財務總監 William Hinman 在 2018 年宣布以太坊不是證券。然而，現任主席 Gary Gensler 表示，儘管沒有明確提及以太坊，但股權證明（PoS）代幣可能屬於證券法的管轄範圍。

This regulatory uncertainty has created a hurdle for ETF applicants, as the SEC has remained conspicuously silent on their decision. The lack of communication has further dampened hopes of an imminent approval.

這種監管的不確定性給 ETF 申請人帶來了障礙，因為 SEC 對他們的決定保持沉默。缺乏溝通進一步削弱了即將獲得批准的希望。

Market Timing Concerns

市場時機問題

Compounding the regulatory headwinds is the market's perceived lack of preparedness for a spot Ethereum ETF. As Nic Puckrin, CEO of Coin Bureau, points out, the launch of ETH futures ETFs last October failed to generate the same level of excitement as the Bitcoin Futures ETF. Puckrin believes that this apathy suggests that simply making an ETF a spot product will not automatically boost interest.

市場認為對以太坊 ETF 現貨缺乏準備，加劇了監管上的阻力。正如 Coin Bureau 執行長 Nic Puckrin 指出的那樣，去年 10 月推出的 ETH 期貨 ETF 未能產生與比特幣期貨 ETF 同等程度的興奮。 Puckrin 認為，這種冷漠表明，僅僅將 ETF 變成現貨產品並不會自動提高人們的興趣。

Puckrin also questions the fundamental value of an Ethereum ETF in the absence of yield-generating mechanisms like staking. He highlights the SEC's scrutiny of staking, which could further complicate the approval process.

Puckrin 也質疑在缺乏質押等收益產生機制的情況下以太坊 ETF 的基本價值。他強調了美國證券交易委員會對質押的審查，這可能會使審批過程更加複雜。

Delay Advocated for Market Maturation

提倡延遲市場成熟

Industry veterans are increasingly advocating for a delay in all ETH ETF approvals until at least December. Matt Hougan of Bitwise believes that giving traditional finance sectors more time to adapt to Bitcoin and the broader crypto ecosystem would strengthen the foundation for an Ethereum ETF market.

業界資深人士越來越主張將所有 ETH ETF 的批准至少推遲到 12 月。 Bitwise 的 Matt Hougan 認為，給傳統金融部門更多的時間來適應比特幣和更廣泛的加密生態系統將加強以太坊 ETF 市場的基礎。

This sentiment is echoed by Puckrin, who argues that the market is not yet fully ready for an Ethereum ETF. He believes that the extended delay could provide ample time for TradFi investors to become more comfortable with digital assets.

Puckrin 也認同這種觀點，他認為市場尚未為以太坊 ETF 做好充分準備。他認為，延長延遲可以為 TradFi 投資者提供充足的時間來更適應數位資產。

SEC Investigation and Staking Concerns

SEC 調查和質押擔憂

The SEC's ongoing investigation into the Ethereum Foundation is a significant factor in the reduced odds of an ETF approval. The agency's potential determination that Ethereum is a security could derail the ETF application process.

美國證券交易委員會對以太坊基金會正在進行的調查是 ETF 批准幾率降低的重要因素。該機構可能確定以太坊是一種證券，這可能會導致 ETF 申請流程脫軌。

Furthermore, the SEC's scrutiny of staking, a key feature of Ethereum's network, raises additional concerns. If staking were deemed a security by the SEC, it could further complicate the path to an ETF approval.

此外，美國證券交易委員會對抵押（以太坊網路的關鍵特徵）的審查引發了更多擔憂。如果 SEC 認為質押是一種證券，那麼 ETF 批准的道路可能會更加複雜。

Market Dynamics and Investor Appetite

市場動態與投資者興趣

The market's tepid response to ETH futures ETFs and the broader absence of yield-generating mechanisms within Ethereum ETFs further diminish the case for an immediate approval. Investors may be hesitant to invest in an ETF that does not offer staking or other value-added features.

市場對 ETH 期貨 ETF 的反應不溫不火，而且以太坊 ETF 內部普遍缺乏收益生成機制，進一步削弱了立即批准的理由。投資人可能會猶豫是否投資不提供質押或其他增值功能的 ETF。

Conclusion

結論

The odds of a spot Ethereum ETF approval before May 23rd have dwindled significantly, with industry experts assigning a mere 25% chance of success. Regulatory uncertainty, market timing concerns, and the SEC's ongoing investigation are among the primary factors contributing to the pessimistic outlook. Industry veterans are increasingly advocating for a delay in approvals until the market is more mature and the SEC's stance on Ethereum's classification and staking is clarified.

以太坊 ETF 現貨在 5 月 23 日之前獲得批准的可能性已大幅下降，行業專家認為成功的可能性僅為 25%。監管不確定性、市場時機擔憂以及美國證券交易委員會正在進行的調查是導致悲觀前景的主要因素。業界資深人士越來越多地主張推遲批准，直到市場更加成熟並且 SEC 對以太坊分類和質押的立場得到澄清。