SEC 审查和市场考虑导致以太坊 ETF 前景黯淡

最近发生的事件，包括 SEC 的调查，已将现货以太坊 ETF 获得批准的可能性降低至 25%。行业专家认为，延迟可能是有益的，因为它将使传统金融适应加密货币。美国证券交易委员会缺乏沟通以及以太坊作为证券分类的复杂性进一步加剧了悲观的前景。

Ethereum ETF Approval Prospects Dwindle Amid SEC Scrutiny and Market Dynamics

以太坊 ETF 批准前景因 SEC 审查和市场动态而减弱

Washington, D.C. - The likelihood of a spot Ethereum Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) being approved before the May 23rd deadline has plummeted to a mere 25%, according to industry experts. This pessimistic outlook stems from a confluence of factors, including a recent SEC investigation and the market's perceived readiness for such a product.

华盛顿特区 - 据行业专家称，现货以太坊交易所交易基金 (ETF) 在 5 月 23 日截止日期之前获得批准的可能性已降至仅 25%。这种悲观的前景源于多种因素，包括美国证券交易委员会最近的一项调查以及市场对此类产品的准备情况。

Regulatory Uncertainty Looms

监管不确定性迫在眉睫

The SEC's subpoena of the Ethereum Foundation regarding the classification of Ethereum as a security has cast a shadow of doubt over the immediate prospects of an ETF approval. The SEC's stance on Ethereum's status has been historically complex, with former Corporation Finance Director William Hinman declaring in 2018 that it was not a security. However, current Chairman Gary Gensler has indicated that Proof-of-Stake (PoS) tokens could fall under the purview of securities law, albeit without explicitly mentioning Ethereum.

美国证券交易委员会就以太坊作为证券的分类向以太坊基金会发出传票，这给 ETF 批准的近期前景蒙上了一层疑虑。历史上，美国证券交易委员会对以太坊地位的立场很复杂，前公司财务总监 William Hinman 在 2018 年宣布以太坊不是证券。然而，现任主席 Gary Gensler 表示，尽管没有明确提及以太坊，但股权证明（PoS）代币可能属于证券法的管辖范围。

This regulatory uncertainty has created a hurdle for ETF applicants, as the SEC has remained conspicuously silent on their decision. The lack of communication has further dampened hopes of an imminent approval.

这种监管的不确定性给 ETF 申请人带来了障碍，因为 SEC 对他们的决定一直保持沉默。缺乏沟通进一步削弱了即将获得批准的希望。

Market Timing Concerns

市场时机问题

Compounding the regulatory headwinds is the market's perceived lack of preparedness for a spot Ethereum ETF. As Nic Puckrin, CEO of Coin Bureau, points out, the launch of ETH futures ETFs last October failed to generate the same level of excitement as the Bitcoin Futures ETF. Puckrin believes that this apathy suggests that simply making an ETF a spot product will not automatically boost interest.

市场认为对以太坊 ETF 现货缺乏准备，这加剧了监管方面的阻力。正如 Coin Bureau 首席执行官 Nic Puckrin 指出的那样，去年 10 月推出的 ETH 期货 ETF 未能产生与比特币期货 ETF 同等程度的兴奋。 Puckrin 认为，这种冷漠表明，仅仅将 ETF 变成现货产品并不会自动提高人们的兴趣。

Puckrin also questions the fundamental value of an Ethereum ETF in the absence of yield-generating mechanisms like staking. He highlights the SEC's scrutiny of staking, which could further complicate the approval process.

Puckrin 还质疑在缺乏质押等收益生成机制的情况下以太坊 ETF 的基本价值。他强调了美国证券交易委员会对质押的审查，这可能会使审批过程进一步复杂化。

Delay Advocated for Market Maturation

提倡延迟市场成熟

Industry veterans are increasingly advocating for a delay in all ETH ETF approvals until at least December. Matt Hougan of Bitwise believes that giving traditional finance sectors more time to adapt to Bitcoin and the broader crypto ecosystem would strengthen the foundation for an Ethereum ETF market.

行业资深人士越来越主张将所有 ETH ETF 的批准至少推迟到 12 月。 Bitwise 的 Matt Hougan 认为，给传统金融部门更多的时间来适应比特币和更广泛的加密生态系统将加强以太坊 ETF 市场的基础。

This sentiment is echoed by Puckrin, who argues that the market is not yet fully ready for an Ethereum ETF. He believes that the extended delay could provide ample time for TradFi investors to become more comfortable with digital assets.

Puckrin 也认同这种观点，他认为市场尚未为以太坊 ETF 做好充分准备。他认为，延长延迟可以为 TradFi 投资者提供充足的时间来更加适应数字资产。

SEC Investigation and Staking Concerns

SEC 调查和质押担忧

The SEC's ongoing investigation into the Ethereum Foundation is a significant factor in the reduced odds of an ETF approval. The agency's potential determination that Ethereum is a security could derail the ETF application process.

美国证券交易委员会对以太坊基金会正在进行的调查是 ETF 批准几率降低的一个重要因素。该机构可能确定以太坊是一种证券，这可能会导致 ETF 申请流程脱轨。

Furthermore, the SEC's scrutiny of staking, a key feature of Ethereum's network, raises additional concerns. If staking were deemed a security by the SEC, it could further complicate the path to an ETF approval.

此外，美国证券交易委员会对抵押（以太坊网络的一个关键特征）的审查引发了更多担忧。如果 SEC 认为质押是一种证券，那么 ETF 批准的道路可能会进一步复杂化。

Market Dynamics and Investor Appetite

市场动态和投资者兴趣

The market's tepid response to ETH futures ETFs and the broader absence of yield-generating mechanisms within Ethereum ETFs further diminish the case for an immediate approval. Investors may be hesitant to invest in an ETF that does not offer staking or other value-added features.

市场对 ETH 期货 ETF 的反应不温不火，而且以太坊 ETF 内部普遍缺乏收益生成机制，进一步削弱了立即批准的理由。投资者可能会犹豫是否投资不提供质押或其他增值功能的 ETF。

Conclusion

结论

The odds of a spot Ethereum ETF approval before May 23rd have dwindled significantly, with industry experts assigning a mere 25% chance of success. Regulatory uncertainty, market timing concerns, and the SEC's ongoing investigation are among the primary factors contributing to the pessimistic outlook. Industry veterans are increasingly advocating for a delay in approvals until the market is more mature and the SEC's stance on Ethereum's classification and staking is clarified.

以太坊 ETF 现货在 5 月 23 日之前获得批准的可能性已大幅下降，行业专家认为成功的可能性仅为 25%。监管不确定性、市场时机担忧以及美国证券交易委员会正在进行的调查是导致悲观前景的主要因素。行业资深人士越来越多地主张推迟批准，直到市场更加成熟并且 SEC 对以太坊分类和质押的立场得到澄清。