CryptoQuant 強調比特幣價格飆升中的危險訊號

鏈上數據服務 CryptoQuant 表示，有五個重要警告跡象顯示比特幣即將達到其價格高點

As Bitcoin continues to rally, reaching a new high of almost $94,100 on Monday, onchain data service CryptoQuant is highlighting five crucial warning indications that could signal an impending price peak.

隨著比特幣繼續上漲，週一達到近 94,100 美元的新高，鏈上數據服務 CryptoQuant 強調了五個重要的警告跡象，這些跡象可能預示著即將到來的價格峰值。

One of these signs, which is already evident, is a MVRV ratio of over 2.67, indicating that Bitcoin's valuation may be approaching unsustainable levels.

其中一個已經很明顯的跡像是 MVRV 比率超過 2.67，表明比特幣的估值可能正在接近不可持續的水平。

According to CryptoQuant, onchain data points to crucial warning signs for Bitcoin, with one already flashing red. In a post on Monday, the onchain data service highlighted its top five warning indications for approaching an unsustainable level of price appreciation in BTC.

根據 CryptoQuant 的說法，鏈上數據指向了比特幣的關鍵警告訊號，其中一個訊號已經呈現紅色閃爍。在周一的一篇文章中，鏈上數據服務強調了 BTC 價格升值接近不可持續水平的前五個警告跡象。

The first indicator is the MVRV ratio, which compares the market value of Bitcoin (the total of all mined coins) with its realized value (the total of all Bitcoins sold recently) to determine its health.

第一個指標是 MVRV 比率，它將比特幣的市場價值（所有開採的比特幣的總和）與其變現價值（最近出售的所有比特幣的總和）進行比較，以確定其健康狀況。

This metric is used to assess whether an asset is over or undervalued, with higher ratios indicating that an asset's valuation may have peaked for the time being.

此指標用於評估資產是否被高估或低估，較高的比率表示資產的估值可能暫時達到高峰。

Based on the data provided by CoinGlass, the MVRV ratio currently stands at 2.67, indicating that Bitcoin's market valuation is still within a healthy range.

根據CoinGlass提供的數據，目前MVRV比率為2.67，顯示比特幣的市場估值仍處於健康範圍內。

However, it is important to note that this ratio reached a maximum of 7 during Bitcoin's historic rally to a peak of almost $60,000 in February 2021.

然而，值得注意的是，在比特幣歷史反彈期間，這一比率最高達到 7，並在 2021 年 2 月達到近 60,000 美元的峰值。

Another key indicator is the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which is used to gauge market sentiment on a scale of 0 to 100, with higher scores indicating increasing optimism and euphoria.

另一個關鍵指標是加密貨幣恐懼與貪婪指數，該指數用於衡量市場情緒，分數範圍為 0 到 100，分數越高表示樂觀情緒和興奮情緒增加。

According to CryptoQuant (via Cointelegraph), in conjunction with other indicators, Bitcoin might be approaching a local top when the index reaches 80 out of a total score of 100.

根據 CryptoQuant（來自 Cointelegraph）的說法，結合其他指標，當該指數達到 100 分總分中的 80 分時，比特幣可能正在接近局部頂部。

Since November 12, index readings have consistently been in this range, peaking at 90 on November 17 and 19 (the highest since February 2021).

自 11 月 12 日以來，指數讀數一直處於該區間，並於 11 月 17 日和 19 日達到 90 的峰值（2021 年 2 月以來的最高值）。

Another crucial indicator is the amount of fresh capital entering the market, which can be used to identify market peaks. According to CryptoQuant, when there is little "new money flow," cryptocurrency prices tend to plateau and subsequently retreat.

另一個關鍵指標是進入市場的新資金量，它可以用來識別市場高峰。根據 CryptoQuant 的說法，當「新資金流」很少時，加密貨幣價格往往會趨於穩定，然後回落。

This is because the entry of new capital into the market is a key driver of sustained price increases, and its absence or depletion can often signal an impending market downturn.

這是因為新資本進入市場是價格持續上漲的關鍵驅動力，而新資本的缺失或枯竭往往預示著市場即將衰退。

Currently, Bitcoin is in what CryptoQuant calls a "bull phase" because the realized cap growth chart—the perfect instrument for monitoring market capitalization—shows that new money inflows are relatively strong.

目前，比特幣正處於 CryptoQuant 所說的“牛市階段”，因為已實現的上限增長圖表（監控市值的完美工具）顯示新資金流入相對強勁。

Another indicator to watch is whether long-term Bitcoin holders are selling actively. You can use the Coin Days Destroyed tool to see if Bitcoins that have been idle for a while are being sold.

另一個值得關注的指標是長期比特幣持有者是否正在積極拋售。您可以使用 Coin Days Destroyed 工具來查看閒置一段時間的比特幣是否已出售。

This metric measures the total number of days that a Bitcoin was last moved before being sold, and it can indicate selling pressure from long-term holders if it spikes suddenly.

該指標衡量比特幣在出售前最後移動的總天數，如果比特幣突然飆升，它可以顯示長期持有者的拋售壓力。

According to CryptoQuant, a short-term adverse signal for the price of Bitcoin could be indicated if the indicator surges beyond 15-20 million. The current score displayed by the indicator is 15.1 million.

據 CryptoQuant 稱，如果該指標飆升至 1500-2000 萬以上，則可能預示著比特幣價格的短期不利訊號。此指標目前顯示的分數為1510萬。

The Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse (IFP) tracks the flow of Bitcoin to and from derivatives exchanges, making it the last indicator. This metric is used to identify بازار crypto peaks and downturns.

交易所間流量脈衝（IFP）追蹤比特幣進出衍生品交易所的流量，​​使其成為最後一個指標。此指標用於識別加密貨幣的高峰和低迷。

According to CryptoQuant, Bitcoin is still being moved to derivatives exchanges to be utilized as collateral, and the IFP continues to display a positive structure.

據 CryptoQuant 稱，比特幣仍在被轉移到衍生性商品交易所用作抵押品，並且 IFP 繼續呈現出積極的結構。

At present, Bitcoin's IFP is hovering at 730,000 and is trending upward. During prior bull runs, the IFP hit 1 million, and during the late 2023 bear market, it dropped below 200,000.

目前，比特幣的IFP徘徊在73萬，並呈現上升趨勢。在之前的多頭期間，IFP 達到 100 萬，而在 2023 年末的熊市期間，則跌破 20 萬。

After Donald Trump's victory, the price of Bitcoin has risen steadily, reaching a new high of almost $94,100 on Monday. Several analysts, including Matthew Sigel, head of digital assets analysis at VanEck, are aiming for a price of $180,000 BTC early next year.

唐納德·川普獲勝後，比特幣的價格穩步上漲，週一達到近 94,100 美元的新高。包括 VanEck 數位資產分析主管 Matthew Sigel 在內的幾位分析師預計 BTC 明年初的價格將達到 18 萬美元。