最新民調顯示唐納德·川普贏得美國總統選舉的機會大幅下降，加密貨幣市場屏住呼吸

預測平台 Polymarket 記錄顯示，唐納德·川普獲勝的幾率在短短幾天內下降了 4.5%。這位前總統此前在獲勝機會方面一直保持著超過 60% 的領先優勢，但現在他的得分下降至 58.1%。

The latest polls are showing a interesting development that could have a big impact on the crypto market. Donald Trump’s chances of winning the U.S. presidential election are decreasing rapidly, according to the latest polls. This could lead to a change in the administration’s crypto policies, which would be a welcome development for the industry.

最新的民意調查顯示了一個有趣的發展，可能會對加密貨幣市場產生重大影響。最新民調顯示，唐納德·川普贏得美國總統大選的機會正在迅速下降。這可能會導致政府的加密貨幣政策發生變化，這對該行業來說將是一個受歡迎的發展。

A political shift with direct crypto implications

具有直接加密影響的政治轉變

The predictive platform Polymarket has shown a 4.5% decrease in Trump’s winning chances in just a few days. The former president, who previously had a comfortable lead of over 60% in winning chances, now sees his score drop to 58.1%.

預測平台Polymarket顯示川普的獲勝機會在短短幾天內下降了4.5%。這位前總統此前在獲勝機會方面遙遙領先，超過 60%，現在他的得分下降至 58.1%。

This decrease is largely due to a loss of ground in crucial swing states, such as Wisconsin and Michigan, though he maintains a lead in other key states, such as Arizona and Pennsylvania.

這一下降主要是由於在威斯康星州和密西根州等關鍵搖擺州的失利，儘管他在亞利桑那州和賓夕法尼亞州等其他關鍵州保持領先。

The implications of this new political dynamic on financial markets are undeniable. For instance, a French trader has reportedly placed a massive bet of $38 million on Trump’s victory, anticipating a potential gain of $80 million. Such high-stakes maneuvers highlight the scale of financial interests tied to this election.

這種新的政治動態對金融市場的影響是不可否認的。例如，據報道，一位法國交易員對川普的勝利下了 3800 萬美元的巨額賭注，預計潛在收益為 8000 萬美元。這種高風險的策略凸顯了與這次選舉相關的經濟利益的規模。

In a related development, institutional investors are making adjustments in response to the growing uncertainty. Data reveals a significant transfer of 180,000 BTC from long-term investors to ETF buyers.

與此相關的是，機構投資者正在做出調整，以應對日益增長的不確定性。數據顯示，180,000 BTC 從長期投資者轉移到 ETF 買家。

Immediate impact on crypto prices

對加密貨幣價格的直接影響

Bitcoin, which had reached $73,000 at the beginning of the week, quickly corrected to below the $70,000 mark. This decline was accompanied by a more pronounced movement in the altcoin market, with Ethereum dropping below $2,500.

比特幣在本周初曾達到 73,000 美元，但很快就回調至 7 萬美元大關下方。這一下跌伴隨著山寨幣市場的更明顯波動，以太坊跌破 2,500 美元。

The spot Bitcoin ETFs are showing their first negative balance in eight trading sessions, despite the continued dominance of the BlackRock IBIT ETF, which has seen inflows of over $26 billion. This correction reflects an increasing caution among investors amidst the political uncertainty.

儘管貝萊德 IBIT ETF 繼續佔據主導地位，流入資金超過 260 億美元，但現貨比特幣 ETF 在 8 個交易日中首次出現負餘額。這項調整反映出投資者在政治不確定性的情況下變得越來越謹慎。

Meanwhile, the market is also seeing an increase in leveraged positions, indicating growing speculation around the electoral event. Seasoned traders, such as Peter Brandt, anticipate a possible continuation of the correction, keeping an eye on the crucial support level of $2,480 for Ethereum.

同時，市場槓桿部位也有所增加，顯示圍繞選舉事件的猜測不斷增加。 Peter Brandt 等經驗豐富的交易員預計回檔可能會持續，並密切關注以太坊 2,480 美元的關鍵支撐位。

This period of political uncertainty highlights the ongoing sensitivity of the crypto market to major political events, underscoring the importance of prudent position management in this volatile landscape.

這段政治不確定性凸顯了加密貨幣市場對重大政治事件的持續敏感性，凸顯了在這種動盪的環境中審慎頭寸管理的重要性。