最新民意调查显示唐纳德·特朗普赢得美国总统选举的机会大幅下降，加密货币市场屏住呼吸

预测平台 Polymarket 记录显示，唐纳德·特朗普获胜的几率在短短几天内下降了 4.5%。这位前总统此前在获胜机会方面一直保持着超过 60% 的领先优势，但现在他的得分下降至 58.1%。

The latest polls are showing a interesting development that could have a big impact on the crypto market. Donald Trump’s chances of winning the U.S. presidential election are decreasing rapidly, according to the latest polls. This could lead to a change in the administration’s crypto policies, which would be a welcome development for the industry.

最新的民意调查显示了一个有趣的发展，可能会对加密货币市场产生重大影响。最新民意调查显示，唐纳德·特朗普赢得美国总统大选的机会正在迅速下降。这可能会导致政府的加密货币政策发生变化，这对该行业来说将是一个受欢迎的发展。

A political shift with direct crypto implications

具有直接加密影响的政治转变

The predictive platform Polymarket has shown a 4.5% decrease in Trump’s winning chances in just a few days. The former president, who previously had a comfortable lead of over 60% in winning chances, now sees his score drop to 58.1%.

预测平台Polymarket显示特朗普的获胜机会在短短几天内下降了4.5%。这位前总统此前在获胜机会方面遥遥领先，超过 60%，现在他的得分下降至 58.1%。

This decrease is largely due to a loss of ground in crucial swing states, such as Wisconsin and Michigan, though he maintains a lead in other key states, such as Arizona and Pennsylvania.

这一下降主要是由于威斯康星州和密歇根州等关键摇摆州的失利，尽管他在亚利桑那州和宾夕法尼亚州等其他关键州保持领先。

The implications of this new political dynamic on financial markets are undeniable. For instance, a French trader has reportedly placed a massive bet of $38 million on Trump’s victory, anticipating a potential gain of $80 million. Such high-stakes maneuvers highlight the scale of financial interests tied to this election.

这种新的政治动态对金融市场的影响是不可否认的。例如，据报道，一位法国交易员对特朗普的胜利下了 3800 万美元的巨额赌注，预计潜在收益为 8000 万美元。这种高风险的策略凸显了与这次选举相关的经济利益的规模。

In a related development, institutional investors are making adjustments in response to the growing uncertainty. Data reveals a significant transfer of 180,000 BTC from long-term investors to ETF buyers.

与此相关的是，机构投资者正在做出调整，以应对日益增长的不确定性。数据显示，180,000 BTC 从长期投资者转移到 ETF 买家。

Immediate impact on crypto prices

对加密货币价格的直接影响

Bitcoin, which had reached $73,000 at the beginning of the week, quickly corrected to below the $70,000 mark. This decline was accompanied by a more pronounced movement in the altcoin market, with Ethereum dropping below $2,500.

比特币在本周初曾达到 73,000 美元，但很快回调至 70,000 美元大关下方。这一下跌伴随着山寨币市场的更明显波动，以太坊跌破 2,500 美元。

The spot Bitcoin ETFs are showing their first negative balance in eight trading sessions, despite the continued dominance of the BlackRock IBIT ETF, which has seen inflows of over $26 billion. This correction reflects an increasing caution among investors amidst the political uncertainty.

尽管贝莱德 IBIT ETF 继续占据主导地位，流入资金超过 260 亿美元，但现货比特币 ETF 在 8 个交易日中首次出现负余额。此次调整反映出投资者在政治不确定性的情况下变得越来越谨慎。

Meanwhile, the market is also seeing an increase in leveraged positions, indicating growing speculation around the electoral event. Seasoned traders, such as Peter Brandt, anticipate a possible continuation of the correction, keeping an eye on the crucial support level of $2,480 for Ethereum.

与此同时，市场杠杆头寸也有所增加，表明围绕选举事件的猜测不断增加。 Peter Brandt 等经验丰富的交易员预计回调可能会持续，并密切关注以太坊 2,480 美元的关键支撑位。

This period of political uncertainty highlights the ongoing sensitivity of the crypto market to major political events, underscoring the importance of prudent position management in this volatile landscape.

这段政治不确定性凸显了加密货币市场对重大政治事件的持续敏感性，凸显了在这种动荡的环境中审慎头寸管理的重要性。