Coinbase 預測 2024 年第二季加密貨幣將迎來機構進入和 BTC 減半的繁榮

美國加密貨幣交易所 Coinbase 預測第二季比特幣和數位資產市場將看漲。機構研究主管 David Duong 預計，由於比特幣減半以及大型機構在盡職調查期後可能進入提供現貨比特幣 ETF 等積極因素，從 4 月開始業績將有所改善。 Coinbase 強調了摩根士丹利和高盛等金融巨頭向其客戶提供比特幣 ETF 的潛在影響，為美國市場釋放了大量資金。

Coinbase Predicts Q2 2024 as a Bullish Period for Crypto, Citing Institutional Entry and BTC Halving

Coinbase 以機構進入和 BTC 減半為理由，預測 2024 年第二季將是加密貨幣的看漲期

In a groundbreaking analysis, Coinbase, a leading cryptocurrency exchange headquartered in the United States, has projected the second quarter of 2024 (Q2 2024) as a highly favorable period for Bitcoin (BTC) and the overall digital asset market. This optimistic forecast stems from a thorough assessment of the market landscape, which reveals that the previously anticipated headwinds facing the crypto sector have now dissipated.

總部位於美國的領先加密貨幣交易所 Coinbase 在一項開創性的分析中預計 2024 年第二季（Q2 2024）對於比特幣（BTC）和整個數位資產市場來說是非常有利的時期。這項樂觀的預測源於對市場格局的全面評估，這表明先前預期的加密貨幣產業面臨的阻力現已消散。

According to David Duong, Coinbase's Head of Institutional Research, "Looking ahead, the setup for Q2 2024 appears more conducive for crypto performance, in our view. That said, we think those positive factors may only manifest themselves more clearly starting in the second half of April."

Coinbase 機構研究主管David Duong 表示：「展望未來，我們認為2024 年第二季的設定似乎更有利於加密貨幣的表現。也就是說，我們認為這些正面因素可能只會在下半年開始更明顯地體現出來。”四月。”

Duong identifies two primary catalysts that could ignite a surge in BTC prices: the upcoming halving event, scheduled for April 2024, and the anticipated entry of large institutional players into the crypto market.

Duong 指出了可能引發 BTC 價格飆升的兩個主要催化劑：即將於 2024 年 4 月舉行的減半事件，以及大型機構參與者預計進入加密貨幣市場。

The halving event, an intrinsic feature of Bitcoin's design, will witness a 50% reduction in the rewards earned by BTC miners. This scarcity-inducing mechanism is widely anticipated to exert upward pressure on BTC's value.

減半事件是比特幣設計的固有特徵，BTC 礦工獲得的獎勵將減少 50%。人們普遍預期這種稀缺引發機制將對比特幣的價值施加上行壓力。

However, Duong underscores the significance of institutional adoption as a key driving force behind the projected bullish Q2. Institutions, known for their meticulous due diligence, typically evaluate new financial products, such as spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), for a period of approximately three months before making them available to clients.

然而，Duong 強調了機構採用作為預計第二季度看漲背後的關鍵驅動力的重要性。以細緻的盡職調查而聞名的機構通常會在向客戶提供新金融產品（例如現貨比特幣交易所交易基金（ETF））之前對其進行大約三個月的評估。

Critically, this 90-day review period for spot Bitcoin ETFs could culminate as early as April 10th, 2024. This milestone holds immense significance because large broker-dealers and wealth advisors customarily conduct comprehensive evaluations before permitting the allocation of client assets into these products. Their assessments rigorously scrutinize investment minimums, liquidity thresholds, and the potential operational challenges posed by daily trading, custodial, and regulatory reporting activities on their existing infrastructure.

至關重要的是，現貨比特幣ETF 的90 天審查期最早可能會在2024 年4 月10 日達到頂峰。這一里程碑意義重大，因為大型經紀自營商和財富顧問通常會在允許將客戶資產在分配到這些產品之前進行全面評估。他們的評估嚴格審查投資最低限度、流動性閾值以及日常交易、託管和監管報告活動對其現有基礎設施造成的潛在營運挑戰。

Against this backdrop, Duong identifies financial behemoths such as Morgan Stanley (MS), Bank of America (BofA), UBS Group AG, and Goldman Sachs (GS) as potential catalysts for the broader adoption of Bitcoin ETFs among clients. He further speculates that wirehouses operating outside the United States may follow suit, amplifying the positive sentiment for Bitcoin and the crypto market as a whole.

在此背景下，Duong 認為摩根士丹利 (MS)、美國銀行 (BofA)、瑞銀集團 (UBS Group AG) 和高盛 (GS) 等金融巨頭是客戶更廣泛採用比特幣 ETF 的潛在催化劑。他進一步推測，在美國境外營運的電信公司可能會效仿，放大比特幣和整個加密貨幣市場的正面情緒。

"That said, wirehouses like MS, BofA, UBS, and GS are not the only gatekeepers of wealth here. Some major wealth management platforms operating in the US exist outside of these large financial conglomerates," Duong notes.

「話雖如此，像微軟、美國銀行、瑞銀和高盛這樣的銀行並不是這裡唯一的財富看門人。在美國運營的一些主要財富管理平台存在於這些大型金融集團之外，」Duong 指出。

While a three-month observation period is the customary timeframe for money managers like LPL Financial, Duong highlights that some institutions employ shorter or longer windows. Consequently, he believes that this variability could unlock substantial capital for US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs over the medium term.

雖然三個月的觀察期是 LPL Financial 等資金管理公司的慣用期限，但 Duong 強調，一些機構採用更短或更長的窗口期。因此，他認為這種變化可能會在中期內為美國現貨比特幣 ETF 釋放大量資金。

In conclusion, Coinbase's bullish forecast for Q2 2024 is anchored in the confluence of the BTC halving event and the anticipated influx of institutional investors. With the 90-day review period for spot Bitcoin ETFs drawing to a close, the second half of April could mark an inflection point for the crypto market, ushering in a period of sustained growth and bullish momentum.

總之，Coinbase 對 2024 年第二季的看漲預測是基於 BTC 減半事件和機構投資者預期湧入的結合。隨著現貨比特幣 ETF 的 90 天審查期即將結束，4 月下半月可能標誌著加密貨幣市場的轉折點，迎來持續增長和看漲勢頭的時期。