Coinbase 预测 2024 年第二季度加密货币将迎来机构进入和 BTC 减半的繁荣

美国加密货币交易所 Coinbase 预测第二季度比特币和数字资产市场将看涨。机构研究主管 David Duong 预计，由于比特币减半以及大型机构在尽职调查期后可能进入提供现货比特币 ETF 等积极因素，从 4 月份开始业绩将有所改善。 Coinbase 强调了摩根士丹利和高盛等金融巨头向其客户提供比特币 ETF 的潜在影响，为美国市场释放了大量资金。

Coinbase Predicts Q2 2024 as a Bullish Period for Crypto, Citing Institutional Entry and BTC Halving

Coinbase 以机构进入和 BTC 减半为理由，预测 2024 年第二季度将是加密货币的看涨期

In a groundbreaking analysis, Coinbase, a leading cryptocurrency exchange headquartered in the United States, has projected the second quarter of 2024 (Q2 2024) as a highly favorable period for Bitcoin (BTC) and the overall digital asset market. This optimistic forecast stems from a thorough assessment of the market landscape, which reveals that the previously anticipated headwinds facing the crypto sector have now dissipated.

总部位于美国的领先加密货币交易所 Coinbase 在一项开创性的分析中预计 2024 年第二季度（Q2 2024）对于比特币（BTC）和整个数字资产市场来说是非常有利的时期。这一乐观的预测源于对市场格局的全面评估，这表明之前预期的加密货币行业面临的阻力现已消散。

According to David Duong, Coinbase's Head of Institutional Research, "Looking ahead, the setup for Q2 2024 appears more conducive for crypto performance, in our view. That said, we think those positive factors may only manifest themselves more clearly starting in the second half of April."

Coinbase 机构研究主管 David Duong 表示：“展望未来，我们认为 2024 年第二季度的设置似乎更有利于加密货币的表现。也就是说，我们认为这些积极因素可能只会在下半年开始更加明显地体现出来。”四月。”

Duong identifies two primary catalysts that could ignite a surge in BTC prices: the upcoming halving event, scheduled for April 2024, and the anticipated entry of large institutional players into the crypto market.

Duong 指出了可能引发 BTC 价格飙升的两个主要催化剂：即将于 2024 年 4 月举行的减半事件，以及大型机构参与者预计进入加密货币市场。

The halving event, an intrinsic feature of Bitcoin's design, will witness a 50% reduction in the rewards earned by BTC miners. This scarcity-inducing mechanism is widely anticipated to exert upward pressure on BTC's value.

减半事件是比特币设计的固有特征，BTC 矿工获得的奖励将减少 50%。人们普遍预计这种稀缺引发机制将对比特币的价值施加上行压力。

However, Duong underscores the significance of institutional adoption as a key driving force behind the projected bullish Q2. Institutions, known for their meticulous due diligence, typically evaluate new financial products, such as spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), for a period of approximately three months before making them available to clients.

然而，Duong 强调了机构采用作为预计第二季度看涨背后的关键驱动力的重要性。以细致的尽职调查而闻名的机构通常会在向客户提供新金融产品（例如现货比特币交易所交易基金（ETF））之前对其进行大约三个月的评估。

Critically, this 90-day review period for spot Bitcoin ETFs could culminate as early as April 10th, 2024. This milestone holds immense significance because large broker-dealers and wealth advisors customarily conduct comprehensive evaluations before permitting the allocation of client assets into these products. Their assessments rigorously scrutinize investment minimums, liquidity thresholds, and the potential operational challenges posed by daily trading, custodial, and regulatory reporting activities on their existing infrastructure.

至关重要的是，现货比特币 ETF 的 90 天审查期最早可能会在 2024 年 4 月 10 日达到顶峰。这一里程碑意义重大，因为大型经纪自营商和财富顾问通常会在允许将客户资产分配到这些产品之前进行全面评估。他们的评估严格审查投资最低限度、流动性阈值以及日常交易、托管和监管报告活动对其现有基础设施造成的潜在运营挑战。

Against this backdrop, Duong identifies financial behemoths such as Morgan Stanley (MS), Bank of America (BofA), UBS Group AG, and Goldman Sachs (GS) as potential catalysts for the broader adoption of Bitcoin ETFs among clients. He further speculates that wirehouses operating outside the United States may follow suit, amplifying the positive sentiment for Bitcoin and the crypto market as a whole.

在此背景下，Duong 认为摩根士丹利 (MS)、美国银行 (BofA)、瑞银集团 (UBS Group AG) 和高盛 (GS) 等金融巨头是客户更广泛采用比特币 ETF 的潜在催化剂。他进一步推测，在美国境外运营的电信公司可能会效仿，从而放大比特币和整个加密货币市场的积极情绪。

"That said, wirehouses like MS, BofA, UBS, and GS are not the only gatekeepers of wealth here. Some major wealth management platforms operating in the US exist outside of these large financial conglomerates," Duong notes.

“话虽如此，像微软、美国银行、瑞银和高盛这样的银行并不是这里唯一的财富看门人。在美国运营的一些主要财富管理平台存在于这些大型金融集团之外，”Duong 指出。

While a three-month observation period is the customary timeframe for money managers like LPL Financial, Duong highlights that some institutions employ shorter or longer windows. Consequently, he believes that this variability could unlock substantial capital for US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs over the medium term.

虽然三个月的观察期是 LPL Financial 等资金管理公司的惯用期限，但 Duong 强调，一些机构采用更短或更长的窗口期。因此，他认为这种变化可能会在中期内为美国现货比特币 ETF 释放大量资金。

In conclusion, Coinbase's bullish forecast for Q2 2024 is anchored in the confluence of the BTC halving event and the anticipated influx of institutional investors. With the 90-day review period for spot Bitcoin ETFs drawing to a close, the second half of April could mark an inflection point for the crypto market, ushering in a period of sustained growth and bullish momentum.

总之，Coinbase 对 2024 年第二季度的看涨预测是基于 BTC 减半事件和机构投资者预期涌入的结合。随着现货比特币 ETF 的 90 天审查期即将结束，4 月下半月可能标志着加密货币市场的拐点，迎来持续增长和看涨势头的时期。