Coinbase 的樂觀估值：發人深省的分析

Coinbase 是一家領先的加密貨幣交易所，擁有悠久的歷史記錄和穩健的財務狀況。儘管該公司在不斷發展的加密貨幣市場中表現出了希望，特別是進入訂閱和服務產品領域，但其目前的估值似乎很樂觀，反映出未來十年現金流量大幅成長的預期。然而，人們對可轉換票據和股票薪酬的潛在稀釋作用以及全球支付系統中採用加密貨幣的不確定性仍然存在擔憂。考慮到這些因素，分析師建議給予「持有」評級，提醒投資者等待更有利的切入點或更明確的公司長期潛力跡象。

Coinbase's Optimistic Valuation: A Cautious Analysis

Coinbase 的樂觀估值：謹慎分析

Introduction

介紹

Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN), a leading cryptocurrency exchange, has garnered attention in the financial realm. Despite the recent volatility in the crypto markets, Coinbase has emerged as a stable player, generating positive cash flow and demonstrating a proven business model. However, the company's current valuation raises questions about its long-term growth prospects and the assumptions underlying its market capitalization.

Coinbase Global, Inc.（COIN）是一家領先的加密貨幣交易所，在金融領域引起了關注。儘管最近加密貨幣市場波動較大，但 Coinbase 已成為穩定的參與者，產生正現金流並展示了經過驗證的商業模式。然而，該公司目前的估值引發了對其長期成長前景及其市值基礎假設的質疑。

Valuation Assessment

估值評估

Coinbase's market cap of approximately $59.5 billion equates to a share price of $245. A discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis suggests that the market is pricing in a bullish growth trajectory, expecting the company's free cash flow (FCF) to expand by 17%-20% over the next decade. This optimism stems from Coinbase's strong performance in the first two phases of crypto adoption, as outlined by CEO Brian Armstrong.

Coinbase 的市值約為 595 億美元，相當於股價 245 美元。折現現金流 (DCF) 分析表明，市場定價看漲成長軌跡，預計該公司的自由現金流 (FCF) 在未來十年將擴大 17%-20%。正如執行長 Brian Armstrong 所概述的那樣，這種樂觀情緒源於 Coinbase 在加密貨幣採用的前兩個階段的強勁表現。

Phase One: Trading and Transaction Revenue

第一階段：交易及交易收入

Phase One, characterized by trading and transaction revenue, witnessed a surge during the bull market of 2021 but has since normalized. This segment remains a significant revenue generator for Coinbase, but its dependence on market fluctuations poses risks to its long-term stability.

第一階段以交易量和交易收入為特徵，在2021年牛市期間出現激增，但此後已趨於正常化。該細分市場仍然是 Coinbase 的重要收入來源，但其對市場波動的依賴對其長期穩定性構成了風險。

Phase Two: Subscriptions and Services

第二階段：訂閱與服務

Phase Two, comprising subscriptions and services, particularly the Stablecoin service, has grown steadily. Armstrong believes that Stablecoins have the potential to revolutionize global payments, reducing fees and inefficiencies associated with traditional payment systems. However, the widespread adoption of Stablecoins and the subsequent displacement of established financial institutions remain uncertain prospects.

第二階段包括訂閱和服務，特別是穩定幣服務，穩定成長。阿姆斯壯認為，穩定幣有潛力徹底改變全球支付方式，減少與傳統支付系統相關的費用和低效率。然而，穩定幣的廣泛採用以及隨後成熟金融機構的取代仍然存在不確定的前景。

Phase Three: Application Platform for the Internet

第三階段：網路應用平台

Phase Three, the most ambitious phase, envisions cryptocurrencies as the foundation for a decentralized internet, encompassing money, identity, and commerce. This transformative shift would require a significant paradigm shift in the global financial landscape. While Armstrong is optimistic about the potential of Phase Three, its realization faces numerous challenges, including security threats and regulatory hurdles.

第三階段是最雄心勃勃的階段，它將加密貨幣視為去中心化網路的基礎，涵蓋貨幣、身分和商業。這種變革需要全球金融格局發生重大典範轉移。儘管阿姆斯壯對第三階段的潛力持樂觀態度，但其實現面臨許多挑戰，包括安全威脅和監管障礙。

Concerns: Dilution and Senior Notes

關注點：稀釋和優先票據

Despite Coinbase's positive fundamentals, concerns arise regarding potential dilution of shares. The company has $1.2 billion in convertible notes that could dilute shareholder value if converted at the current share price. Additionally, stock-based compensation has increased significantly, potentially detracting from long-term returns. Furthermore, the Senior Notes due in the future may become a liability if the crypto markets experience prolonged volatility.

儘管 Coinbase 的基本面良好，但人們仍然擔心股票可能會被稀釋。該公司擁有 12 億美元的可轉換票據，如果以當前股價轉換，可能會稀釋股東價值。此外，基於股票的薪酬大幅增加，可能會降低長期回報。此外，如果加密貨幣市場經歷長期波動，未來到期的優先票據可能會成為負債。

Conclusion: Cautious Hold

結論：謹慎持有

In light of these factors, a cautious approach towards Coinbase is warranted. While the company has a strong track record in the first two phases of crypto adoption, the ambitious goals of Phase Three and the potential for dilution and debt overhang raise concerns about its long-term growth potential. The current valuation of $245 may not provide a sufficient margin of safety, particularly given the volatility of the crypto markets. A more conservative stance is advised until greater clarity emerges regarding the company's growth trajectory and the realization of Phase Three.

鑑於這些因素，有必要對 Coinbase 採取謹慎態度。儘管該公司在加密貨幣採用的前兩個階段擁有良好的記錄，但第三階段的雄心勃勃的目標以及稀釋和債務積壓的可能性引發了對其長期成長潛力的擔憂。目前 245 美元的估值可能無法提供足夠的安全邊際，特別是考慮到加密貨幣市場的波動性。在公司的成長軌跡和第三階段的實現更加清晰之前，建議採取更保守的立場。